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China is definitely watching the US, but I don't think it's for the reason you imagine. China prefers peaceful reunification. They don't want to fight a war if

China is definitely watching the US, but I don't think it's for the reason you imagine. China prefers peaceful reunification. They don't want to fight a war if they don't have to. At the same time, peaceful reunification is a core interest of China. Which means that they will go to war, but only if they believe peaceful reunification is no longer possible. So yes they do watch the US to make calculations. But even if the US is weak, they still don't want a war as long as they believe peaceful reunification is possible. Furthermore, Taiwanese reunification is not only a core interest, it's also possibly the most emotional one for the Chinese. Large portions of the population support reunification, and they will overthrow whichever leader lets Taiwan go. This is why "raising the stakes" by announcing military support for Taiwan does not deter China. Quite the opposite: they encourage China to go to war, costs be damned, because such foreign support signal that peaceful reunification will become impossible. As for Hong Kong, see my comment here https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31705632 https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=31705632

hueyluey 4y ago
For many chinese people this is such an emotional issue because the chinese government has been very keen in promoting these emotions. They let go Mongolia and no one is still crying about that. The communist party could at least let off some steam on the issue if they wanted to...but they don't
indymike 4y ago
> China prefers peaceful reunification. The people of Taiwan, just like those of Ukraine do not want to be re-absorbed. > Quite the opposite: they encourage China to go to war, costs be damned, because such foreign support signal that peaceful reunification will become impossible. It already is impossible. I think the world, save Beijing is moving on.
- rnk 4y ago
  There is little support for reunification in Taiwan and it gets smaller by the day based on China's actions in HK and in the area near Taiwan. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/07/why-is-unification-so-unpopular-in-taiwan-its-the-prc-political-system-not-just-culture/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/07/w...
kmonsen 4y ago
Peaceful reunification is not possible after China showed that one country two systems will not be tolerated anymore.
mdp2021 4y ago
> it's also possibly the most emotional one for the Chinese. Large portions of the population support reunification Some of us have difficulties in understanding the mindset: if some population wants one system, and is unavailable to be part of a different system (they would have moved, would not they), how do those "reunification supporters" on the other side believe, psychologically, that a system change is imaginable? They believe that coercion can be an effective solution? That "the others will adapt"? If so, that the new configuration will be stable (like a model of energy states)? It does not sound sound, in these ways - it may sound like "early stopping" in thoughts.
- FooBarWidget 4y ago
  Reunification means that both side recognize that they're Chinese. Things like systems or ideology are not that important and can be worked out. They could have different governments. In fact a federation solution was proposed (and rejected) in the 80s. Furthermore, the Chinese sense of history is much longer. There are many examples in Chinese history in which some territory splitted off and then reunified later. So things like "the configuration won't be stable" wouldn't be Chinese thinking. To the Chinese, splitting off is the unstable configuration. Given how the current Taiwan situation came to be, many Chinese view the Taiwan government as relatives with whom they've had a fight, and whom — after losing — bunkered down in the basement. The basement is still part of the house. They're still part of the family, so let's not be too cruel to them and seek peace. But if they no longer claim to be part of the family, then kick them out.
  - mdp2021 4y ago
    > that both side recognize that they're Chinese [...] But if they no longer claim to be part of the family Don't they all consider themselves Han people? How do they configure their identity? Their ethnic and historical ties do not appear to be severable.
    - hueyluey 4y ago
      Younger taiwanese people think of themselves less and less "chinese" or "han" or whatever label we would like to use
CogitoCogito 4y ago
> They don't want to fight a war if they don't have to. China doesn't have to fight. They could just accept that the ROC/Taiwan is an independent country (which of course it is whether China accepts it or not). China has no obligation to start a war of conquest.
- powerapple 4y ago
  it would be true if countries are really "independent". What China sees is the first island chain made by the US. China sees "China Containment".
  - CogitoCogito 4y ago
    Once again, China doesn’t have to fight.
    - FooBarWidget 4y ago
      And the US doesn't have to isolate China or send warships to the SCS. The US didn't have to give Tsingdao to the Japanese, which directly triggered protests that led to the birth of the CPC. The KMT didn't have to be so corrupt that the majority population sided with CPC which led to KMT fleeing to Taiwan. And yet, those ships have sailed. We aren't in this mess just because China is supposedly a bad guy, there are real relevant historical reasons why things are the way they are, and they can't be swept under a rug.
      - CogitoCogito 4y ago
        > We aren't in this mess just because China is supposedly a bad guy, there are real relevant historical reasons why things are the way they are, and they can't be swept under a rug. If China attacks Taiwan, it is absolutely because of China. It would, after all, but their own choice to engage in such a war of aggression.
        FooBarWidget 4y ago

hueyluey 4y ago

For many chinese people this is such an emotional issue because the chinese government has been very keen in promoting these emotions. They let go Mongolia and no one is still crying about that. The communist party could at least let off some steam on the issue if they wanted to...but they don't

indymike 4y ago

> China prefers peaceful reunification. The people of Taiwan, just like those of Ukraine do not want to be re-absorbed. > Quite the opposite: they encourage China to go to war, costs be damned, because such foreign support signal that peaceful reunification will become impossible. It already is impossible. I think the world, save Beijing is moving on.

rnk 4y ago
There is little support for reunification in Taiwan and it gets smaller by the day based on China's actions in HK and in the area near Taiwan. https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/07/why-is-unification-so-unpopular-in-taiwan-its-the-prc-political-system-not-just-culture/ https://www.brookings.edu/blog/order-from-chaos/2022/02/07/w...

kmonsen 4y ago

Peaceful reunification is not possible after China showed that one country two systems will not be tolerated anymore.

mdp2021 4y ago

> it's also possibly the most emotional one for the Chinese. Large portions of the population support reunification Some of us have difficulties in understanding the mindset: if some population wants one system, and is unavailable to be part of a different system (they would have moved, would not they), how do those "reunification supporters" on the other side believe, psychologically, that a system change is imaginable? They believe that coercion can be an effective solution? That "the others will adapt"? If so, that the new configuration will be stable (like a model of energy states)? It does not sound sound, in these ways - it may sound like "early stopping" in thoughts.

FooBarWidget 4y ago
Reunification means that both side recognize that they're Chinese. Things like systems or ideology are not that important and can be worked out. They could have different governments. In fact a federation solution was proposed (and rejected) in the 80s. Furthermore, the Chinese sense of history is much longer. There are many examples in Chinese history in which some territory splitted off and then reunified later. So things like "the configuration won't be stable" wouldn't be Chinese thinking. To the Chinese, splitting off is the unstable configuration. Given how the current Taiwan situation came to be, many Chinese view the Taiwan government as relatives with whom they've had a fight, and whom — after losing — bunkered down in the basement. The basement is still part of the house. They're still part of the family, so let's not be too cruel to them and seek peace. But if they no longer claim to be part of the family, then kick them out.
- mdp2021 4y ago
  > that both side recognize that they're Chinese [...] But if they no longer claim to be part of the family Don't they all consider themselves Han people? How do they configure their identity? Their ethnic and historical ties do not appear to be severable.
  - hueyluey 4y ago
    Younger taiwanese people think of themselves less and less "chinese" or "han" or whatever label we would like to use

CogitoCogito 4y ago

> They don't want to fight a war if they don't have to. China doesn't have to fight. They could just accept that the ROC/Taiwan is an independent country (which of course it is whether China accepts it or not). China has no obligation to start a war of conquest.

powerapple 4y ago
it would be true if countries are really "independent". What China sees is the first island chain made by the US. China sees "China Containment".
- CogitoCogito 4y ago
  Once again, China doesn’t have to fight.
  - FooBarWidget 4y ago
    And the US doesn't have to isolate China or send warships to the SCS. The US didn't have to give Tsingdao to the Japanese, which directly triggered protests that led to the birth of the CPC. The KMT didn't have to be so corrupt that the majority population sided with CPC which led to KMT fleeing to Taiwan. And yet, those ships have sailed. We aren't in this mess just because China is supposedly a bad guy, there are real relevant historical reasons why things are the way they are, and they can't be swept under a rug.
    - CogitoCogito 4y ago
      > We aren't in this mess just because China is supposedly a bad guy, there are real relevant historical reasons why things are the way they are, and they can't be swept under a rug. If China attacks Taiwan, it is absolutely because of China. It would, after all, but their own choice to engage in such a war of aggression.
      - FooBarWidget 4y ago