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Surfers are very familiar with how two waves that come in different angles combine into a very high wave at the intersection. I really don't understand why mons

Surfers are very familiar with how two waves that come in different angles combine into a very high wave at the intersection. I really don't understand why monster waves seem so mysterious to scientists. I'm certain they happen all the time but no one is there to observe them except for the occasional unlucky sailor. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wedge_(surfing) https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Wedge_(surfing)

zionic 4y ago
Well from my understanding the core problem is the statistical models used to calculate their probability were completely wrong. So we had “hard” math “proving” they were once-in-a-million-years unlikely, and that lasted until we had overwhelming observational evidence to the contrary (in this case buoy data)
yieldcrv 4y ago
> I really don't understand why monster waves seem so mysterious to scientists. Because the explanation isn’t complete. A surfer seeing something 10 seconds beforehand and reacting to it has nothing to do with why it was occurring at all.
saberience 4y ago
Because what you're describing isn't a "rogue wave," it's just a slightly bigger wave. I'm not a surfer and am just a person who's been swimming in the sea a handful of times and I've seen this phenomenom. The rogue waves being described are incredibly rare to the point that sailors who have sailed 5000 hours have never encountered one and are sometimes talked about as though they are mythical. When rogue waves were originally discussed the heights discussed were considered to be such that they were a 1 in 10'000 year probability, and there wasn't anyone living who could provide first hand evidence, just records of ships going missing and "rumors" amongst sailors.
- ok_dad 4y ago
  When I was in the navy, the old Grizzly senior dudes would talk about rogue waves like the green flash [0]; some insisted they knew someone who saw one and others were sure that both were amongst the oldest sailor jokes in existence. It seems both phenomenons are real! [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_flash https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_flash
  - ncmncm 4y ago
    The green flash lasts for many minutes near equinox at the poles. I have corresponded with someone who camps in Antarctica (it takes all kinds!) and has watched it happen. Seeing a rogue wave and not dying has to be a lot rarer than just seeing one.
hinkley 4y ago
I mean, there was just an article about how scientists discovered that worms travel after a rain, which is something I figured out when I was ten. Science has a lot of blind spots. Surfers and children aren’t high on the list of people to consult or observe. Nor for a long time was folk medicine.
- labrador 4y ago
  I spent a lot of time on the ocean surfing and then in the Navy. I've seen a lot of strange wave behavior and have been fascinated by it, so I suppose rouge waves don't seem odd to me in a chaotic fluid situation.

zionic 4y ago

Well from my understanding the core problem is the statistical models used to calculate their probability were completely wrong. So we had “hard” math “proving” they were once-in-a-million-years unlikely, and that lasted until we had overwhelming observational evidence to the contrary (in this case buoy data)

yieldcrv 4y ago

> I really don't understand why monster waves seem so mysterious to scientists. Because the explanation isn’t complete. A surfer seeing something 10 seconds beforehand and reacting to it has nothing to do with why it was occurring at all.

saberience 4y ago

Because what you're describing isn't a "rogue wave," it's just a slightly bigger wave. I'm not a surfer and am just a person who's been swimming in the sea a handful of times and I've seen this phenomenom. The rogue waves being described are incredibly rare to the point that sailors who have sailed 5000 hours have never encountered one and are sometimes talked about as though they are mythical. When rogue waves were originally discussed the heights discussed were considered to be such that they were a 1 in 10'000 year probability, and there wasn't anyone living who could provide first hand evidence, just records of ships going missing and "rumors" amongst sailors.

ok_dad 4y ago
When I was in the navy, the old Grizzly senior dudes would talk about rogue waves like the green flash [0]; some insisted they knew someone who saw one and others were sure that both were amongst the oldest sailor jokes in existence. It seems both phenomenons are real! [0] https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_flash https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_flash
- ncmncm 4y ago
  The green flash lasts for many minutes near equinox at the poles. I have corresponded with someone who camps in Antarctica (it takes all kinds!) and has watched it happen. Seeing a rogue wave and not dying has to be a lot rarer than just seeing one.

hinkley 4y ago

I mean, there was just an article about how scientists discovered that worms travel after a rain, which is something I figured out when I was ten. Science has a lot of blind spots. Surfers and children aren’t high on the list of people to consult or observe. Nor for a long time was folk medicine.

labrador 4y ago
I spent a lot of time on the ocean surfing and then in the Navy. I've seen a lot of strange wave behavior and have been fascinated by it, so I suppose rouge waves don't seem odd to me in a chaotic fluid situation.