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Did anyone really believe that the Stock-to-Flow model would be a correct predictor of price? That seems awfully naive, it's just some pseudoscientific nonsense
by cinntaile 4y ago
Did anyone really believe that the Stock-to-Flow model would be a correct predictor of price? That seems awfully naive, it's just some pseudoscientific nonsense.
- danuker 4y agoIf you used the raw model, without any smoothing, it still predicted the $50k price correctly. I think the smoothing gave too much weight to S2F and not enough to plain time. But I am really curious what will happen after 2024. That is when S2F really diverges from a plain time power-law. https://danuker.go.ro/bitcoin-price-predictions.html https://danuker.go.ro/bitcoin-price-predictions.html