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The last halvening, the price increased less than what a lot of people expected (didn't reach $100k or $250k as per the Stock-To-Flow model). And the peak was m
by danuker 4y ago
The last halvening, the price increased less than what a lot of people expected (didn't reach $100k or $250k as per the Stock-To-Flow model). And the peak was much smoother.
- cinntaile 4y agoDid anyone really believe that the Stock-to-Flow model would be a correct predictor of price? That seems awfully naive, it's just some pseudoscientific nonsense.
- danuker 4y agoIf you used the raw model, without any smoothing, it still predicted the $50k price correctly. I think the smoothing gave too much weight to S2F and not enough to plain time. But I am really curious what will happen after 2024. That is when S2F really diverges from a plain time power-law. https://danuker.go.ro/bitcoin-price-predictions.html https://danuker.go.ro/bitcoin-price-predictions.html