> The classic joke about this is that the inverted yield curve has predicted 12 of the last 7 recessions. That is not the classic joke. First off, inverted yi

> The classic joke about this is that the inverted yield curve has predicted 12 of the last 7 recessions. That is not the classic joke. First off, inverted yield curves has accurately predicted recessions without false positives. Look up Campbell R. Harvey, who first published on this phenomenon in his dissertation: * https://today.duke.edu/2019/07/its-official-yield-curve-triggered-does-recession-loom-horizon https://today.duke.edu/2019/07/its-official-yield-curve-trig... Interview from 2019: * https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sb1byR8Zx0 https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9sb1byR8Zx0 Its record is 7 for 7, with no false signals, using data since 1950. Of course people weren't looking at it closely until post-2008, so now it could (as mentioned in the interview @4m50s) become part of a feedback mechanism. Second, the actual joke by economist Paul Samuelson (who wrote "the" textbook on economics) was about Wall Street: > To prove that Wall Street is an early omen of movements still to come in GNP, commentators quote economic studies alleging that market downturns predicted four out of the last five recessions. That is an understatement. Wall Street indexes predicted nine out of the last five recessions! And its mistakes were beauties.[18] * https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_quotations https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Paul_Samuelson#Aphorisms_and_q...