It’s binary, but not balanced. Specifically, it’s predicting the beginning of a recession, and very few time periods are the beginning of a recession. So it’s

It’s binary, but not balanced. Specifically, it’s predicting the beginning of a recession, and very few time periods are the beginning of a recession. So it’s like predicting that you’ll roll a 1 on a die. Flipping a coin for your prediction would say you’ll roll the 1 50% of the time, which is obviously wrong.