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Or Putin's death, whichever comes first. I doubt there are any structures left in Russia which could or would want to dethrone him.

WesolyKubeczek 4y ago
You wish. The current Kremlin is a loony bin, any guy will take his place with the world being none the wiser. A more competent loony may take Putin's place, and it's somewhat frightening.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > more competent loony may take Putin's place, and it's somewhat frightening More competent would be fine. Well, not for Russians. It will be terrible for them. But a competent Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine. The risk and historical pattern is the people surrounding a paranoid autocrat tend to be more zealous, not less. They've internalized the propaganda. And they never had to drop the act to make the good decisions that got o.g. autocrat onto the throne. Putin was and likely remains a competent spook. His cronies are good at embezzling.
  - WesolyKubeczek 4y ago
    I mean, a more competent, but still batshit crazy.
- bryanlarsen 4y ago
  From this outsider's perspective, it seems clear that if Putin was assassinated and there was a clear successor or unity in the Kremlin, that candidate would almost certainly take over and almost certainly continue Putin's imperialist stance. However, as I understand it, Putin has undermined any obvious successors and stoked divisions in the Kremlin to secure his grip. If so, infighting may let a united opposition under Navalny succeed. Another alternative would be the breakup of the Federation. Some of the republics in the federation like Komi, Tartarstan, Ossetia, Sakha and Karelia have strong national identities and may unilaterally declare independence during the choas. Many of those will end up like the 'stans, but many would at least try to follow the example of the Baltics. To be clear I'm being more hopeful than realistic here, but one can always hope. But the clear prerequisite for the hopeful scenarios is a resounding defeat in the Ukraine war. We in the west need to strongly support Ukraine not just to save Ukraine but also on the off chance that it might save the Russian people too.
- sofixa 4y ago
  > A more competent loony may take Putin's place That's highly unlikely. In a dictatorship, competent people don't survive long in positions of power.
- r721 4y ago
  Yeah, Mark Galeotti recently translated parts of Patrushev's interview - he seems even more crazy than Putin, and he's arguably the second most powerful person in Russia right now: https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1531956066451394577 https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1531956066451394577 (https://nitter.it/MarkGaleotti/status/1531956066451394577 https://nitter.it/MarkGaleotti/status/1531956066451394577)

WesolyKubeczek 4y ago

You wish. The current Kremlin is a loony bin, any guy will take his place with the world being none the wiser. A more competent loony may take Putin's place, and it's somewhat frightening.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> more competent loony may take Putin's place, and it's somewhat frightening More competent would be fine. Well, not for Russians. It will be terrible for them. But a competent Putin wouldn't have invaded Ukraine. The risk and historical pattern is the people surrounding a paranoid autocrat tend to be more zealous, not less. They've internalized the propaganda. And they never had to drop the act to make the good decisions that got o.g. autocrat onto the throne. Putin was and likely remains a competent spook. His cronies are good at embezzling.
- WesolyKubeczek 4y ago
  I mean, a more competent, but still batshit crazy.
bryanlarsen 4y ago
From this outsider's perspective, it seems clear that if Putin was assassinated and there was a clear successor or unity in the Kremlin, that candidate would almost certainly take over and almost certainly continue Putin's imperialist stance. However, as I understand it, Putin has undermined any obvious successors and stoked divisions in the Kremlin to secure his grip. If so, infighting may let a united opposition under Navalny succeed. Another alternative would be the breakup of the Federation. Some of the republics in the federation like Komi, Tartarstan, Ossetia, Sakha and Karelia have strong national identities and may unilaterally declare independence during the choas. Many of those will end up like the 'stans, but many would at least try to follow the example of the Baltics. To be clear I'm being more hopeful than realistic here, but one can always hope. But the clear prerequisite for the hopeful scenarios is a resounding defeat in the Ukraine war. We in the west need to strongly support Ukraine not just to save Ukraine but also on the off chance that it might save the Russian people too.
sofixa 4y ago
> A more competent loony may take Putin's place That's highly unlikely. In a dictatorship, competent people don't survive long in positions of power.
r721 4y ago
Yeah, Mark Galeotti recently translated parts of Patrushev's interview - he seems even more crazy than Putin, and he's arguably the second most powerful person in Russia right now: https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1531956066451394577 https://twitter.com/MarkGaleotti/status/1531956066451394577 (https://nitter.it/MarkGaleotti/status/1531956066451394577 https://nitter.it/MarkGaleotti/status/1531956066451394577)