> we now have tools to prevent recessions. We have nothing that didn't exist in 2001 or 2008 or 2020. It is kind of weird to see Millennials whose economic aw

> we now have tools to prevent recessions. We have nothing that didn't exist in 2001 or 2008 or 2020. It is kind of weird to see Millennials whose economic awareness starts roughly in 2008 think that economics is fundamentally different now than it was 20 years ago. There is something fundamentally different now than 2009-2020 -- but it is that the Boomers are retiring, COVID took people out of the workforce, and reduced immigration means that there's now fewer job seekers than jobs. This is causing sticky wage increases that have policymakers worried. They want to keep workers in check and contain wage inflation, so will throw on the brakes. The levers that they have are crude and the only real way to do this is to create pain which drops the number of job openings. The current commodities inflation surge isn't even that out of line with the past. We had higher oil prices in 2008 before the bust, we also had similar prices, particularly on an inflation-adjusted basis in 2014 at the height of the last commodities boom (which did not end with a recession). And the current commodities boom is clearly associated with the pandemic. Two years ago we had negative oil prices. It is wild to see all the people in this thread not understanding the cyclical nature of commodities prices and the very clear bullwhip effects that are unfolding right now. I've been predicting that since everyone expects inflation that just on contrarian logic alone the bulk of the people have to be wrong and that we're due for a strong recessionary crash / depression. That logic seems to keep on getting better. The fact that people believe the Fed can land the economy softly, without a recession, and get inflation under control is also pretty wild though.