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The follow-up article tries to argue there is an over five year lag to interest correcting inflation based on undisclosed principles of a model they don’t provi
by TimPC 4y ago
The follow-up article tries to argue there is an over five year lag to interest correcting inflation based on undisclosed principles of a model they don’t provide equations for. Their argument is in effect that the growth of roughly 30% of the inflation basket of goods (housing) dominates the shrinking of the other 70% of the inflation basket of goods. The analysis is suspect as they don’t seem to model how much the 70% shrinks or slows in growth at all. They also aren’t very numerically precise on the interest effects on housing prices and misanalyze how mortgages work in Canada.
Their analysis argues that roughly 4% of mortgages are replaced every year while 96% retain the same rates. This makes it hard to argue interest rates have the desired effect size but that doesn’t stop them from trying.
- jbay808 4y ago> The analysis is suspect as they don’t seem to model how much the 70% shrinks or slows in growth at all. It doesn't model it at all. The trajectory of ex-shelter CPI is taken as an input. For the provided scenarios, all non-shelter components are assumed (as a scenario premise, not a prediction) to instantly return to a 2% growth rate and stay there.