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Recessions are forecast on a quarterly basis, so not thousands, but more than 20 between each recession (typically, historically). That's why I chose a D20 -- o
by InefficientRed 4y ago
Recessions are forecast on a quarterly basis, so not thousands, but more than 20 between each recession (typically, historically). That's why I chose a D20 -- out of coin/dice/D6/D20/Roulette, it's the RNG that's most reasonably close to the number of quarters between recessions.
- stonemetal12 4y agoHow long have we been forecasting? More than 50 years or more than 200 quarters. 5/12 would be 7 misses out of 200, that means it was right 193 out of 200 times. That doesn't include false negatives of course. Actuals vs positive predictions tells you nothing interesting.
- InefficientRed 4y agoYeah there are many additional reasons this is different from a coin clip, but the confusion of predicting correctly 50% of the time in a 50/50 event versus 50% of the time for a 1/20+ event was the most glaring issue so I started with that one...