As TFA notes the Parade magazine formulation is only "loosely based" on the actual show Lets Make a Deal" hosted by Monty Hall. The real Lets Make a Deal* is a

As TFA notes the Parade magazine formulation is only "loosely based" on the actual show Lets Make a Deal" hosted by Monty Hall. The real Lets Make a Deal* is a bit more complicated[1], and AFAICT there is no easy analysis or solution for an optimal strategy. The game described in Parade magazine is different from the TV show game, and the assumptions (about the host's behavior) are incomplete/ambiguous enough that switching is not necesarrily the optimal strategy. This, like almost everything else you can think about the Monty Hall Problem, is also described in TFA[2]. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Make_a_Deal#Format https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Let%27s_Make_a_Deal#Format [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_host_behaviors https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Monty_Hall_problem#Other_host_...