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Over thousands of periods. And each time the prediction was no the outcome was no, and among the few times the predictions was yes it happened 50% of the time.
by satellite2 4y ago
Over thousands of periods. And each time the prediction was no the outcome was no, and among the few times the predictions was yes it happened 50% of the time.
- InefficientRed 4y agoRecessions are forecast on a quarterly basis, so not thousands, but more than 20 between each recession (typically, historically). That's why I chose a D20 -- out of coin/dice/D6/D20/Roulette, it's the RNG that's most reasonably close to the number of quarters between recessions.
- stonemetal12 4y agoHow long have we been forecasting? More than 50 years or more than 200 quarters. 5/12 would be 7 misses out of 200, that means it was right 193 out of 200 times. That doesn't include false negatives of course. Actuals vs positive predictions tells you nothing interesting.
- InefficientRed 4y agoYeah there are many additional reasons this is different from a coin clip, but the confusion of predicting correctly 50% of the time in a 50/50 event versus 50% of the time for a 1/20+ event was the most glaring issue so I started with that one...