What type of bet you make with the market matters a lot. If your play is very convex and it gives you the opportunity to risk $1 to make $10 then that's a worth

What type of bet you make with the market matters a lot. If your play is very convex and it gives you the opportunity to risk $1 to make $10 then that's a worthwhile bet to make provided that losing $1 10 times doesn't wipe you out. Since market crashes tend to be violent and volatile there are instruments out there that benefit from higher volatility and can give you 100x returns. So when you combine a 5/12 accuracy indicator with a play that is low probability, little fee to entry, but huge reward you have a decent strategy.