3 ms·
The linked chart shows the 10Y:3M spread. Another frequently cited chart is the 10Y:2Y spread, which went negative in both August 2019 and April 2022: https://
by 88913527 4y ago
The linked chart shows the 10Y:3M spread. Another frequently cited chart is the 10Y:2Y spread, which went negative in both August 2019 and April 2022:
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/T10Y2Y
- mtoner23 4y agoSo the 10/2 spread predicted Covid19? idk if this is a good indicator.
- usrn 4y agoThere's a conspiracy theory going around that the overreaction to Covid was because people wanted to hide how rough things were going to be economically.
- jackallis 4y agohttps://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/yield-curve-almost-flashes-recession-maybe-but-who-knows-when-11648118199?mod=hp_lista_pos2 https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/yield-curve-almost-flashes-...
- hammock 4y agoThe 10-2 is the better predictor and the more-often cited. Confusing why they used 10y-3m here
- pterhx 4y agoThis is probably because the economist who first looked into relationship between the yield curve and recessions used 10y-3m [0]. His reasoning is that the 3m gives a better outlook of the conditions happening at the moment than the 2y. [0] https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1092678307 https://www.npr.org/transcripts/1092678307