4 ms·
I'm not reading the details of this particular experiment, because I'm wasting enough time talking about it as it is. ;) But you have to understand the nature
by mechanical_fish 15y ago
I'm not reading the details of this particular experiment, because I'm wasting enough time talking about it as it is. ;)
But you have to understand the nature of real prototype devices. Take it from someone who has built many semiconductor lasers that worked so badly that it took hundreds of thousands of dollars worth of specialized equipment to learn that they worked at all: The first transistor probably didn't work very well. The first laser didn't produce a lot of power or have a very long lifetime. Famously, the first several thousand Edison light bulbs didn't work well enough to be viable products. The difference between success and failure in an early-stage experiment is often small, and often statistical, and is often so ephemeral that you yourself have crises of faith in the results. And that's for the kind of phenomenon that eventually turns out to be tremendously important!
And this is the problem. On the frontier, the difference between a promising sign and a statistical fluke is small. It's a territory ripe for self-delusion and fraud.
You ask me to run a steam engine. Well, okay, suppose I can do that for five minutes. But then a piece of duct tape comes unstuck. You say: Replace that duct tape with something more durable. I reply, okay, sure, can you lend me the necessary $1500? (I was trying to save money with the duct tape. Half the parts are duct tape. Prototype device, remember?)
You ask me to run the test longer. Well, okay, I can run it until my special catalyst runs out. You say: Get more catalyst. I reply, okay, sure, can you lend me the necessary $10,000? (The catalyst is expensive in small quantities, you see, but in the future we'll have economies of scale.)
You ask me to open up my black box and submit every part to detailed analysis. We'll hire an independent laboratory and they'll handle all of it. I reply, okay, sure, can you pony up the necessary $10 million?
And then the independent laboratory finds a suspicious anomaly. Oh dear, I say, I didn't realize that was happening. Maybe I made a mistake. I'll have to go back to the drawing board. Can I have a $1m grant to go back to the drawing board?
- VikingCoder 15y agoYou make excellent points. Here's my problem: "The exact design has changed repeatedly; originally the one-megawatt generator was to be composed of three hundred small E-Cats, then it was 52 larger "fat cats", now the number seems to be 43." Why do we have to build 43 of something, to find out if it produces more electricity than it consumes? Either it does, or it doesn't. The third possibility is that there's some cross-talk or multiplicative effect of having more than 1, but I doubt it.
- mechanical_fish 15y agoI could make up a very plausible reason. Handwaving is a key job skill for physicists and con men alike. Example: It's about the surface area of the catalyst. You can't just use one big cylinder of catalyst because that doesn't have enough surface. You need 40 or 50 little cylinders. And then you can't put all of those in one tank because then the flow of reactant past the surfaces of the cylinders isn't properly laminar, so you put each one in its individual cell. Then you build each cell with a separate housing and so forth, to contain the damage from the occasional explosions. As for why the magic number "43": We built 52, but 9 of them have, um, failed, so now we have 43. Soon there will only be 42. By the way, I hope you are wearing your safety goggles? ;) [REITERATION OF DISCLAIMER: I am not describing a real experiment. I am describing a figment of my imagination. Please do not send money.]
- egypturnash 15y agoMaybe 'cause the company with the money was all "we are only interested if it can output one megawatt" and the guy making it was all "huh, looks like I can get one of these units to put out about 1/43 of a megawatt apiece"? The shrinking number would jibe with him having a few improvements over the process of developing the thing and scaling it up.