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It's entirely rational. He's on the hook for $1B. He is highly incentivized to obfuscate, lobby and otherwise delay making that payment any way he can. It's not

It's entirely rational. He's on the hook for $1B. He is highly incentivized to obfuscate, lobby and otherwise delay making that payment any way he can. It's not about being right, at this point.

nixgeek 4y ago
Musk is not on the hook for $1B, Musk is on the hook for $44B. Delaware has significant precedent for forcing consummation of business deals in cases like these when the acquirer has the means, which Musk clearly does. https://www.axios.com/2022/05/14/the-musk-twitter-endgame https://www.axios.com/2022/05/14/the-musk-twitter-endgame
- kmonsen 4y ago
  But Elon also has a not given a fuck in the past and gotten away with it. My guess is he will get away with it again, but then are we really living in a society with equal laws for everyone?
  - MisterBastahrd 4y ago
    Texas isn't going to protect him (because they can't), so unless he wants to flee the country, he doesn't have many options.
    - hef19898 4y ago
      That eould be great, Musk trying to "Ghosn" out of it. Ghosn: Carlos Ghosn, former CEO of Nissan-Renault, held on Japan for some white collar crime and illegally smuggled out of Japan, with the help of a former Green Beret and his son, to Libanon, Ghosn home country. Since then he is no longer CEO and wanted internationally by Japan.
dahdum 4y ago
Right, he wants out of the deal on the terms but I don’t think it’s the $1B he’s worried about. It’s the embarrassment of either having to pay the break up fee or overpaying so much at $54.20. His ego is at stake, he’s called many things but not often a fool.
- enos_feedler 4y ago
  If he really had an ego he would think “I am so good I can pay 54.20 for this company worth 30.00 and still spin it back into a public company worth $100. I am unstoppable. This is how I think about his ego. It is also why I think he just pays the $54.20 and doesn’t bat an eye. He is just haggling right now if he can. Nothing serious.
  - iepathos 4y ago
    Turning twitter into a public company worth $100/share would be below par for Elon's performance with all his previous companies so far. He'll probably turn it into a company worth much more if he actually acquires it. Even just unbanning Trump from the platform would drastically shoot up the share price. Twitter leadership has been screwing itself as a company for some time.
- usefulcat 4y ago
  I have a hard time seeing this as being anything other than a fun how-can-I-fuck-with-people-today kind of game for him. I mean, yeah, sure on the surface it's economically rational and all, but really--you're already nominally in charge of at least 3 different large companies, yet this is how you choose to spend your time and energy? Nickel-and-diming Twitter for lulz? edit: and before someone points out what a big difference a few dollars in the share price would make towards the acquisition price: if he really believes that Twitter has so much untapped potential (economic or otherwise), then a few dollars either way shouldn't matter much. But by going to such lengths to slightly reduce the cost and jeopardize the deal, he shows that he doesn't think it has much potential and/or he's just screwing around.
  - dahdum 4y ago
    Twitter is incredibly important to him, without it he’d never have been able to craft his Tesla or SpaceX narratives and garner so much retail support. Buying Twitter guarantees him a (bully) pulpit and raises his profile ever higher. His antics could easily get him banned in the future, with devastating results.
anonymousiam 4y ago
Is the $1B penalty for backing out greater, or less than the difference in capitalization before/after the recent stock downturn. Perhaps he could save money by backing out, paying the $1B, and then making a new offer to shareholders.
- behnamoh 4y ago
  he would make a joke of himself, more than he is already
- tsimionescu 4y ago
  There is no backing out penalty of $1B, as there is no option of backing out. That penalty is only for extreme cases that cause the deal to fall through, such as a discovery of massive fraud or the financing falling through entirely (say, Tesla going bankrupt tomorrow). I those cases, Mush would stop owing $44B and onyl owe $1B instead to Twitter's shareholders. Unless and until such a thing happens, he owes them ~$44B.

It's entirely rational. He's on the hook for $1B. He is highly incentivized to obfuscate, lobby and otherwise delay making that payment any way he can. It's not about being right, at this point.

nixgeek 4y ago

Musk is not on the hook for $1B, Musk is on the hook for $44B. Delaware has significant precedent for forcing consummation of business deals in cases like these when the acquirer has the means, which Musk clearly does. https://www.axios.com/2022/05/14/the-musk-twitter-endgame https://www.axios.com/2022/05/14/the-musk-twitter-endgame

kmonsen 4y ago
But Elon also has a not given a fuck in the past and gotten away with it. My guess is he will get away with it again, but then are we really living in a society with equal laws for everyone?
- MisterBastahrd 4y ago
  Texas isn't going to protect him (because they can't), so unless he wants to flee the country, he doesn't have many options.
  - hef19898 4y ago
    That eould be great, Musk trying to "Ghosn" out of it. Ghosn: Carlos Ghosn, former CEO of Nissan-Renault, held on Japan for some white collar crime and illegally smuggled out of Japan, with the help of a former Green Beret and his son, to Libanon, Ghosn home country. Since then he is no longer CEO and wanted internationally by Japan.

dahdum 4y ago

Right, he wants out of the deal on the terms but I don’t think it’s the $1B he’s worried about. It’s the embarrassment of either having to pay the break up fee or overpaying so much at $54.20. His ego is at stake, he’s called many things but not often a fool.

enos_feedler 4y ago
If he really had an ego he would think “I am so good I can pay 54.20 for this company worth 30.00 and still spin it back into a public company worth $100. I am unstoppable. This is how I think about his ego. It is also why I think he just pays the $54.20 and doesn’t bat an eye. He is just haggling right now if he can. Nothing serious.
- iepathos 4y ago
  Turning twitter into a public company worth $100/share would be below par for Elon's performance with all his previous companies so far. He'll probably turn it into a company worth much more if he actually acquires it. Even just unbanning Trump from the platform would drastically shoot up the share price. Twitter leadership has been screwing itself as a company for some time.
usefulcat 4y ago
I have a hard time seeing this as being anything other than a fun how-can-I-fuck-with-people-today kind of game for him. I mean, yeah, sure on the surface it's economically rational and all, but really--you're already nominally in charge of at least 3 different large companies, yet this is how you choose to spend your time and energy? Nickel-and-diming Twitter for lulz? edit: and before someone points out what a big difference a few dollars in the share price would make towards the acquisition price: if he really believes that Twitter has so much untapped potential (economic or otherwise), then a few dollars either way shouldn't matter much. But by going to such lengths to slightly reduce the cost and jeopardize the deal, he shows that he doesn't think it has much potential and/or he's just screwing around.
- dahdum 4y ago
  Twitter is incredibly important to him, without it he’d never have been able to craft his Tesla or SpaceX narratives and garner so much retail support. Buying Twitter guarantees him a (bully) pulpit and raises his profile ever higher. His antics could easily get him banned in the future, with devastating results.

anonymousiam 4y ago

Is the $1B penalty for backing out greater, or less than the difference in capitalization before/after the recent stock downturn. Perhaps he could save money by backing out, paying the $1B, and then making a new offer to shareholders.

behnamoh 4y ago
he would make a joke of himself, more than he is already
tsimionescu 4y ago
There is no backing out penalty of $1B, as there is no option of backing out. That penalty is only for extreme cases that cause the deal to fall through, such as a discovery of massive fraud or the financing falling through entirely (say, Tesla going bankrupt tomorrow). I those cases, Mush would stop owing $44B and onyl owe $1B instead to Twitter's shareholders. Unless and until such a thing happens, he owes them ~$44B.