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Basically there is now a probability distribution for how frequently the JWST will be struck by meteorites. The most probable amount is once per five months. Ho
by thehappypm 4y ago
Basically there is now a probability distribution for how frequently the JWST will be struck by meteorites. The most probable amount is once per five months. However it’s a distribution with pretty fat tails, almost equally likely is every four or six months, slightly less is every three or seven, etc.
- Beltiras 4y agoIt's a question of sample size. There might be frequent events out there that kill the entire mission but we've been lucky so far. This might be an anomalously "noisy" period. We just need more data to make the determination.
- thehappypm 4y agoNew data will adjust the probability distribution and flatten the tails, but even 1 data point is enough to get an initial probability distribution.