4 ms·
> Then you obviously switch, as the original door has a 1% chance of being right, and the other door has a 99% of being right. It's not obvious to me that this
by dahfizz 4y ago
> Then you obviously switch, as the original door has a 1% chance of being right, and the other door has a 99% of being right.
It's not obvious to me that this is true. Why do we update the chance of the "new" door but not the one we already selected? Intuitively, I would expect the odds of both doors to increase to 50% as the other 98 doors are opened.
I know that you're correct, I just don't find this to be an intuitive explanation.
- mcphage 4y agoThe odds of your original door being right are 1%—that never changes. It’s determined by the options when the game was set up and when you picked it. If your original door was wrong—99% chance—then it’s in one of the 99 other doors. But the host opens 98 of them, so if it was one of the 99 other doors—again, 99% chance—then the only option left is the last door.