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That’s also due to regulatory costs. Regulations now require “citizen voice” for large projects, whether infrastructure or just an apartment building. So NIMBYi

That’s also due to regulatory costs. Regulations now require “citizen voice” for large projects, whether infrastructure or just an apartment building. So NIMBYism is able to slow construction (which translates directly to increased costs), require additional measures or features. And NIMBY lawsuits after regulatory approval is given can further increase costs and schedule, even if the court rules in favor of the project. And then because of all these regulatory costs, the experience isn’t gained, so learning doesn’t occur, and if it does, it occurs only for a few firms. Additionally, large state sponsored projects often are treated as jobs programs, etc. Another issue is that the difficulty of complying with the regulations is intentional. The paperwork is difficult as an intentional sort of time-tax on building anything new. We could actually automate and streamline everything to be approved immediately (while following the letter) without large paperwork costs, but that’s not actually what those who push for the regulations actually want. They WANT it to be hard. It’s not just a boogeyman. It’s the real reason. Regulations are responsible for most of the cost of nuclear power.

bumby 4y ago
You're not wrong, but I'm not sure what's a better alternative. Think of it in a different scope: government contracts are also expensive because the have to be open to competition. A lot of the red tape could be reduced with no-bid contracts, but people understand the corruption risk tradeoff is generally not worth it. In your example, it seems like the NIMBYism is the root cause, not the process by which NIMBYism is wielded.
Ericson2314 4y ago
I don't think it's useful to conflate construction code style regulation and NIMBYism. There can be excess of the former, but ultimately rules-based regulation isn't the worst. NIMBYism and other discretionary review adds more much delays and uncertainty and that is the Achilles heel. Ultimately we need build out the literal and metaphorical supply chains, i.e. do the same thing over and over and over again. Economies of scale are real, and so are diseconomies of discale, and the latter is the NIMBY's greatest weapon for collective action. Are Stadtbahns the SMRs of transit?
philipkglass 4y ago
It’s not just a boogeyman. It’s the real reason. Regulations are responsible for most of the cost of nuclear power. In a counterfactual world with fewer regulations, I can believe that construction would be cheaper. But regulations don't explain why new projects have drastic cost and schedule overruns. The United States started building new AP1000 reactors in Georgia and South Carolina in 2013 [1] [2]. There were no regulatory changes/increases after 2013. But the projects went drastically over the budget and schedule numbers that they had in 2013. The South Carolina project was ultimately canceled and the SCANA CEO ended up in federal prison: https://www.powermag.com/former-scana-ceo-will-land-in-prison-as-result-of-v-c-summer-nuclear-project/ https://www.powermag.com/former-scana-ceo-will-land-in-priso... Following the project's demise, an “exhaustive and multi-year joint investigation” was conducted by the U.S. Attorney’s Office, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the South Carolina Attorney General’s Office, and the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division. Marsh’s sentencing is the result of that investigation. “Kevin Marsh deceived regulators and customers to financially benefit SCANA,” Susan Ferensic, special agent in charge of the FBI Columbia Field Office, said in a statement. “Unfortunately, Marsh’s and other executive’s actions resulted in South Carolinians bearing the financial brunt of the failed Summer Nuclear Station.” “Due to this fraud, an $11 billion nuclear ghost town, paid for by SCANA investors and customers, now sits vacant in Jenkinsville, S.C.,” DeHart said. The Georgia project is still in progress. https://apnews.com/article/business-environment-united-states-georgia-atlanta-7555f8d73c46f0e5513c15d391409aa3 https://apnews.com/article/business-environment-united-state... "Georgia nuclear plant’s cost now forecast to top $30 billion" A nuclear power plant being built in Georgia is now projected to cost its owners more than $30 billion. A financial report from one of the owners on Friday clearly pushed the cost of Plant Vogtle near Augusta past that milestone, bringing its total cost to $30.34 billion. ... When approved in 2012, the third and fourth reactors were estimated to cost $14 billion, with the first electricity being generated in 2016. Now the third reactor is set to begin operation in March 2023, and the fourth reactor is set to begin operation in December 2023. It's reasonable to say that a pacemaker costs more to develop than an MP3 player because medical devices are heavily regulated by the FDA. But it's not reasonable to say that a project to develop a new pacemaker is 100% over budget and 7 years late because of FDA regulations if the FDA regulations didn't change in the mean while. In this case, the regulations didn't change. So earlier estimates were due to fraud or incompetence (either execution-incompetence or planning-incompetence). I tend to blame incompetence -- after all, many megaprojects end up horribly late and over budget, not just nuclear ones -- but in the case of South Carolina's VC Summer there was outright fraud too. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant#Construction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Pla... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Generating_Station#Units_2_and_3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Gener...
jandrese 4y ago
Is this due to "citizen voice" or is it just that all of the land is now someone's back yard? A century ago most of the land around cities was forest, plains, or sometimes farm. Building out rail, transmission lines, or pipelines was relatively easy because barely anybody lived near where you were building. Today there are people scattered all around and they will absolutely complain when you start building something near the property they bought specifically to be away from other people.

bumby 4y ago

You're not wrong, but I'm not sure what's a better alternative. Think of it in a different scope: government contracts are also expensive because the have to be open to competition. A lot of the red tape could be reduced with no-bid contracts, but people understand the corruption risk tradeoff is generally not worth it. In your example, it seems like the NIMBYism is the root cause, not the process by which NIMBYism is wielded.

Ericson2314 4y ago

I don't think it's useful to conflate construction code style regulation and NIMBYism. There can be excess of the former, but ultimately rules-based regulation isn't the worst. NIMBYism and other discretionary review adds more much delays and uncertainty and that is the Achilles heel. Ultimately we need build out the literal and metaphorical supply chains, i.e. do the same thing over and over and over again. Economies of scale are real, and so are diseconomies of discale, and the latter is the NIMBY's greatest weapon for collective action. Are Stadtbahns the SMRs of transit?

philipkglass 4y ago

It’s not just a boogeyman. It’s the real reason. Regulations are responsible for most of the cost of nuclear power. In a counterfactual world with fewer regulations, I can believe that construction would be cheaper. But regulations don't explain why new projects have drastic cost and schedule overruns. The United States started building new AP1000 reactors in Georgia and South Carolina in 2013 [1] [2]. There were no regulatory changes/increases after 2013. But the projects went drastically over the budget and schedule numbers that they had in 2013. The South Carolina project was ultimately canceled and the SCANA CEO ended up in federal prison: https://www.powermag.com/former-scana-ceo-will-land-in-prison-as-result-of-v-c-summer-nuclear-project/ https://www.powermag.com/former-scana-ceo-will-land-in-priso... Following the project's demise, an “exhaustive and multi-year joint investigation” was conducted by the U.S. Attorney’s Office, the Federal Bureau of Investigation, the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, the South Carolina Attorney General’s Office, and the South Carolina Law Enforcement Division. Marsh’s sentencing is the result of that investigation. “Kevin Marsh deceived regulators and customers to financially benefit SCANA,” Susan Ferensic, special agent in charge of the FBI Columbia Field Office, said in a statement. “Unfortunately, Marsh’s and other executive’s actions resulted in South Carolinians bearing the financial brunt of the failed Summer Nuclear Station.” “Due to this fraud, an $11 billion nuclear ghost town, paid for by SCANA investors and customers, now sits vacant in Jenkinsville, S.C.,” DeHart said. The Georgia project is still in progress. https://apnews.com/article/business-environment-united-states-georgia-atlanta-7555f8d73c46f0e5513c15d391409aa3 https://apnews.com/article/business-environment-united-state... "Georgia nuclear plant’s cost now forecast to top $30 billion" A nuclear power plant being built in Georgia is now projected to cost its owners more than $30 billion. A financial report from one of the owners on Friday clearly pushed the cost of Plant Vogtle near Augusta past that milestone, bringing its total cost to $30.34 billion. ... When approved in 2012, the third and fourth reactors were estimated to cost $14 billion, with the first electricity being generated in 2016. Now the third reactor is set to begin operation in March 2023, and the fourth reactor is set to begin operation in December 2023. It's reasonable to say that a pacemaker costs more to develop than an MP3 player because medical devices are heavily regulated by the FDA. But it's not reasonable to say that a project to develop a new pacemaker is 100% over budget and 7 years late because of FDA regulations if the FDA regulations didn't change in the mean while. In this case, the regulations didn't change. So earlier estimates were due to fraud or incompetence (either execution-incompetence or planning-incompetence). I tend to blame incompetence -- after all, many megaprojects end up horribly late and over budget, not just nuclear ones -- but in the case of South Carolina's VC Summer there was outright fraud too. [1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Plant#Construction https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Vogtle_Electric_Generating_Pla... [2] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Generating_Station#Units_2_and_3 https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Virgil_C._Summer_Nuclear_Gener...

jandrese 4y ago

Is this due to "citizen voice" or is it just that all of the land is now someone's back yard? A century ago most of the land around cities was forest, plains, or sometimes farm. Building out rail, transmission lines, or pipelines was relatively easy because barely anybody lived near where you were building. Today there are people scattered all around and they will absolutely complain when you start building something near the property they bought specifically to be away from other people.