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Regarding the wild swings in the estimates of remaining oil What wild swings? Over the last 150 years, they have gone in only one direction -- up. it's pollut

Regarding the wild swings in the estimates of remaining oil What wild swings? Over the last 150 years, they have gone in only one direction -- up. it's polluting enough Please be specific. Are you talking about smog? CO2? to, potentially, influence much of the world away from it Why would that happen now, instead of at any time during the last 150 years? Let's see what Google Images says: http://images.google.com/images?q=world%20oil%20consumption%20chart http://images.google.com/images?q=world%20oil%20consumption%... People and countries seem to like oil. They keep buying more and more of it. Why would they suddenly stop?

DaniFong 18y ago
Wild swings meaning the enormous gulf between the estimates of accessible oil typically cited and the estimates of oil resources you cite. Are you talking about smog? CO2? CO2 most importantly, but smog plays a major role. Why would they stop? We've reached a few inflection points. Americans drive less this year than they did the last. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=business http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=bu... One might gather that price will similarly effect heating costs and flight usage. Fuel economy is one of the foremost items on the minds of Americans now, according to Gallup (#2 in national issues, apparently). http://www.gallup.com/poll/108067/Fuel-Prices-Now-Clearly-Americans-No-Concern.aspx http://www.gallup.com/poll/108067/Fuel-Prices-Now-Clearly-Am... Countries might increasingly wish to reduce their economic dependency on the oil market, as it becomes cheaper and cheaper to do so. There has been much support for an ethanol economy in the US; for example the bipartisan bill to introduce biofuel installations in gas stations. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/08/bill-in-congres.html http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/08/bill-in-congres.html Already Brazil has an ethanol economy, provoked by the 1973 oil crisis. Nations with similar agricultural capability and high oil dependency have the same incentives to guard against future market downturns. Finally, there's the global warming problem. I assume you don't believe CO2 has a major role. But from a pure economic standpoint, it is likely the governments and the populace will increasingly believe it has a major role and will probably do something about it, either collectively or individually. This will probably influence demand to drop, though it may not do so suddenly. Anticipating this, oil companies have a riskier bet to make in large capital investments in heavy oil extraction. Increasingly, such companies will try to diversify into the broader energy business, as many are already making efforts to do.

DaniFong 18y ago

Wild swings meaning the enormous gulf between the estimates of accessible oil typically cited and the estimates of oil resources you cite. Are you talking about smog? CO2? CO2 most importantly, but smog plays a major role. Why would they stop? We've reached a few inflection points. Americans drive less this year than they did the last. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=business http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=bu... One might gather that price will similarly effect heating costs and flight usage. Fuel economy is one of the foremost items on the minds of Americans now, according to Gallup (#2 in national issues, apparently). http://www.gallup.com/poll/108067/Fuel-Prices-Now-Clearly-Americans-No-Concern.aspx http://www.gallup.com/poll/108067/Fuel-Prices-Now-Clearly-Am... Countries might increasingly wish to reduce their economic dependency on the oil market, as it becomes cheaper and cheaper to do so. There has been much support for an ethanol economy in the US; for example the bipartisan bill to introduce biofuel installations in gas stations. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/08/bill-in-congres.html http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/08/bill-in-congres.html Already Brazil has an ethanol economy, provoked by the 1973 oil crisis. Nations with similar agricultural capability and high oil dependency have the same incentives to guard against future market downturns. Finally, there's the global warming problem. I assume you don't believe CO2 has a major role. But from a pure economic standpoint, it is likely the governments and the populace will increasingly believe it has a major role and will probably do something about it, either collectively or individually. This will probably influence demand to drop, though it may not do so suddenly. Anticipating this, oil companies have a riskier bet to make in large capital investments in heavy oil extraction. Increasingly, such companies will try to diversify into the broader energy business, as many are already making efforts to do.