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For those interested in what what Scott Aaronson said: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=4979 https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=4979 > In a world-historic irony, the

For those interested in what what Scott Aaronson said: https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=4979 https://scottaaronson.blog/?p=4979 > In a world-historic irony, the main effect of this “solution” will be to drastically limit the number of Asian students, while drastically increasing (!!!) the number of White students. The proportion of Black and Hispanic students is projected to increase a bit but remain small.

UncleMeat 4y ago
The fun part about this is that TJHSST did edit the admissions process so we can actually test Aaronson's claim. From class of 2024 to class of 2025. * Economically disadvantaged students: 0.62% to 25.09% * Black students: 1.23% to 7.09% * Hispanic students: 3.29% to 11.27% * White students: 17.70% to 22.36% * Asian students: 73.05% to 54.36% The raw increase in black students is larger than the raw increase in white students. But Aaronson predicted a "drastic increase" in white students and for the number of black students to increase by "a bit." Oops. You can slice stats further. The number of asian students who are also on free and reduced lunch increased between years.
- concordDance 4y ago
  I wonder how his other predictions like it becoming a much less elite school with a lower quality student body have held up.
  - UncleMeat 4y ago
    Average GPA of the class of 2025 admits was roughly identical (3.95). We will obviously have to wait a few years to see how college admissions turn out and then we'll need to wait longer than that to see how their lives turn out. But early concerns about the students being "lower quality" are not panning out. There is also the question of what "elite" means. Should TJ select for people that are extremely good at taking tests so they can have students take a mountain of AP classes and score a lot of 5s? Or is that not actually the best kind of education for gifted students? The most valuable material when I attended was not the testing but building weird software in the syslab. This value isn't encoded in grades and test scores.
    - concordDance 4y ago
      > Average GPA of the class of 2025 admits was roughly identical (3.95). This confuses me greatly. Are they using more generous grading for pandemic reasons? I've observed a noticeable difference between a top 5% student and a top 1% student, so the fact they're getting the same scores is odd... Wass the material/pace much lower than what the student body could cope with?
      - UncleMeat 4y ago
        > This confuses me greatly. Are they using more generous grading for pandemic reasons? Middle school GPA of the admits. Not their GPA in their freshmen year at TJ. I don't believe that TJ publishes this information. In a few years you'll be able to get a few proxies in average AP scores and college admissions information (though these metrics are flawed in their own ways). But more and more evidence is stacking up that maybe your core assumption (the new class is full of worse students so that more white people get admitted) might not be true. Continuing to grasp for possible other explanations that allow you to keep holding this belief isn't good science. There are more than 500 very smart 8th graders in fairfax county (and prince william and fauquier counties) each year. Changing the testing procedure doesn't mean that less smart students are being admitted.

UncleMeat 4y ago

The fun part about this is that TJHSST did edit the admissions process so we can actually test Aaronson's claim. From class of 2024 to class of 2025. * Economically disadvantaged students: 0.62% to 25.09% * Black students: 1.23% to 7.09% * Hispanic students: 3.29% to 11.27% * White students: 17.70% to 22.36% * Asian students: 73.05% to 54.36% The raw increase in black students is larger than the raw increase in white students. But Aaronson predicted a "drastic increase" in white students and for the number of black students to increase by "a bit." Oops. You can slice stats further. The number of asian students who are also on free and reduced lunch increased between years.

concordDance 4y ago
I wonder how his other predictions like it becoming a much less elite school with a lower quality student body have held up.
- UncleMeat 4y ago
  Average GPA of the class of 2025 admits was roughly identical (3.95). We will obviously have to wait a few years to see how college admissions turn out and then we'll need to wait longer than that to see how their lives turn out. But early concerns about the students being "lower quality" are not panning out. There is also the question of what "elite" means. Should TJ select for people that are extremely good at taking tests so they can have students take a mountain of AP classes and score a lot of 5s? Or is that not actually the best kind of education for gifted students? The most valuable material when I attended was not the testing but building weird software in the syslab. This value isn't encoded in grades and test scores.
  - concordDance 4y ago
    > Average GPA of the class of 2025 admits was roughly identical (3.95). This confuses me greatly. Are they using more generous grading for pandemic reasons? I've observed a noticeable difference between a top 5% student and a top 1% student, so the fact they're getting the same scores is odd... Wass the material/pace much lower than what the student body could cope with?
    - UncleMeat 4y ago
      > This confuses me greatly. Are they using more generous grading for pandemic reasons? Middle school GPA of the admits. Not their GPA in their freshmen year at TJ. I don't believe that TJ publishes this information. In a few years you'll be able to get a few proxies in average AP scores and college admissions information (though these metrics are flawed in their own ways). But more and more evidence is stacking up that maybe your core assumption (the new class is full of worse students so that more white people get admitted) might not be true. Continuing to grasp for possible other explanations that allow you to keep holding this belief isn't good science. There are more than 500 very smart 8th graders in fairfax county (and prince william and fauquier counties) each year. Changing the testing procedure doesn't mean that less smart students are being admitted.