6 ms·

Is there evidence for this claim?

by beebmam 4y ago

upsidesinclude 4y ago
Have you been to SF? That's your evidence
worker_person 4y ago
The evidence was stolen. Person filing the complaint was mugged. Mugger was hailed as a hero.
vineyardmike 4y ago
There is tons of AnecData suggesting this is true. The recalled DA himself admitted to not reporting his car breaking because he didn’t think it’d be prosecuted. I can name roughly 10 people in my life who said they didn’t bother. Another 5 who went to police only to be told by them that there was nothing that would happen and that they shouldn’t waste time on finishing the paperwork. To complete the data, I know only 1 person who fully reported a crime, and it was an extreme violent crime.
elefanten 4y ago
The pervasive testimony from local law enforcement that the DA's office won't even respond about prosecuting most offenses. Not just minor offenses -- theft, burglaries, assault and at least one manslaughter/homicide case. The second hand testimony from residents and business owners saying the police are telling them not to expect them to be able to prosecute anyone. But there's also the evidence of what Boudin openly said and advocated. Sometimes the message and the stated intent are worth replacing regardless of how effective they've been at their goals.
- heretogetout 4y ago
  Testimony from law enforcement should be dismissed out of hand (including in court) without hard evidence backing it up. The second hand testimony could just mean the police are acting like children, we don't know.
throwaway894345 4y ago
It's not so much "as a result of the DA's policies" in particular (although I don't doubt this contributes), but all over the country discretionary policing has fallen as a result of pressure from anti-policing activists on politicians and police departments. The result is that crime overall rises, but "lesser" crimes which are more likely to fall under the rubric of "discretionary" appear to fall because the police are effectively prohibited from looking for them. However, crimes which aren't discretionary such as homicides (in other words, police can't overlook homicides) are rising sharply. This has shown up in some of the "Ferguson effect" literature (and I suspect it will also show up in the "Minneapolis effect" literature once criminologists compile and process the data), but I don't have a link handy at the moment.
- joshuamorton 4y ago
  In SF, rapes and robberies are both down in 2021/2022 compared to 2018. Murder and shootings are comparable with 2018. Car thefts are up. All of which completely goes against this narrative you've described. The rising crime narrative is entirely an artifact of the pandemic causing historically low crim because for like 8 months no one did anything.
  - throwaway894345 4y ago
    > In SF I'm not sure about SF in particular, but my account was for the US as a whole. > Murder and shootings are comparable with 2018. This is incorrect. SF homicides: Year | Homicides -----+---------- 2018 | 44 2019 | 41 2020 | 48 2021 | 56 That's a 25% increase since 2018. Source: https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/sf-mayor-police-chief-discuss-citys-crime-over-the-last-year/2790381/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20numbers%2C%20the,Police%20Chief%20Bill%20Scott%20said https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/sf-mayor.... > The rising crime narrative is entirely an artifact of the pandemic causing historically low crim because for like 8 months no one did anything. Again, I'm not sure about SF in particular, but nationally the "rising crime narrative" is entirely an artifact of soaring crime, especially violent crimes. For example, homicides have been falling for decades, and then the trend abruptly reversed around 2014. Criminologists have identified specific reversals in cities that experienced large BLM protests immediately following those protests, and this is all pre-pandemic data (the 2020 and 2021 data is still being compiled and analyzed as far as I know). For example (https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w27324.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w273...): > For investigations that were not preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force, investigations, on average, led to a statistically significant reduction in homicides and total crime. In stark contrast, all investigations that were preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force have led to a large and statistically significant increase in homicides and total crime. We estimate that these investigations caused almost 900 excess homicides and almost 34,000 excess felonies. The leading hypothesis for why these investigations increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%.
kansface 4y ago
I think this is normally a good question, but honestly, in what world would I care about numbers when there is a lady screaming 'Help'/'Asshole' for hours at a time at my door, a homeless guy running a bicycle chop shop in front of my building (he uses a 3' stretch of pipe to deconstruct bikes!), people breaking into the building (taking both packages and keys!), the outside of the building is turned into a communal toilet, the local Walgreens gets looted out of business, and people get stabbed uncomfortably often just around the corner? That was my somewhat unfettered, actual pandemic experience in Hayes Valley turned Tenderloin. You could claim that's not entirely the fault of the DA, probably with merit, too, but I just don't care all the same. If the DA claims no agency, takes no responsibility for any of this mess, and the plan is even more of the same thing, whats the point?

Is there evidence for this claim?

upsidesinclude 4y ago

Have you been to SF? That's your evidence

worker_person 4y ago

The evidence was stolen. Person filing the complaint was mugged. Mugger was hailed as a hero.

vineyardmike 4y ago

There is tons of AnecData suggesting this is true. The recalled DA himself admitted to not reporting his car breaking because he didn’t think it’d be prosecuted. I can name roughly 10 people in my life who said they didn’t bother. Another 5 who went to police only to be told by them that there was nothing that would happen and that they shouldn’t waste time on finishing the paperwork. To complete the data, I know only 1 person who fully reported a crime, and it was an extreme violent crime.

elefanten 4y ago

The pervasive testimony from local law enforcement that the DA's office won't even respond about prosecuting most offenses. Not just minor offenses -- theft, burglaries, assault and at least one manslaughter/homicide case. The second hand testimony from residents and business owners saying the police are telling them not to expect them to be able to prosecute anyone. But there's also the evidence of what Boudin openly said and advocated. Sometimes the message and the stated intent are worth replacing regardless of how effective they've been at their goals.

heretogetout 4y ago
Testimony from law enforcement should be dismissed out of hand (including in court) without hard evidence backing it up. The second hand testimony could just mean the police are acting like children, we don't know.

throwaway894345 4y ago

It's not so much "as a result of the DA's policies" in particular (although I don't doubt this contributes), but all over the country discretionary policing has fallen as a result of pressure from anti-policing activists on politicians and police departments. The result is that crime overall rises, but "lesser" crimes which are more likely to fall under the rubric of "discretionary" appear to fall because the police are effectively prohibited from looking for them. However, crimes which aren't discretionary such as homicides (in other words, police can't overlook homicides) are rising sharply. This has shown up in some of the "Ferguson effect" literature (and I suspect it will also show up in the "Minneapolis effect" literature once criminologists compile and process the data), but I don't have a link handy at the moment.

joshuamorton 4y ago
In SF, rapes and robberies are both down in 2021/2022 compared to 2018. Murder and shootings are comparable with 2018. Car thefts are up. All of which completely goes against this narrative you've described. The rising crime narrative is entirely an artifact of the pandemic causing historically low crim because for like 8 months no one did anything.
- throwaway894345 4y ago
  > In SF I'm not sure about SF in particular, but my account was for the US as a whole. > Murder and shootings are comparable with 2018. This is incorrect. SF homicides: Year | Homicides -----+---------- 2018 | 44 2019 | 41 2020 | 48 2021 | 56 That's a 25% increase since 2018. Source: https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/sf-mayor-police-chief-discuss-citys-crime-over-the-last-year/2790381/#:~:text=According%20to%20the%20numbers%2C%20the,Police%20Chief%20Bill%20Scott%20said https://www.nbcbayarea.com/news/local/san-francisco/sf-mayor.... > The rising crime narrative is entirely an artifact of the pandemic causing historically low crim because for like 8 months no one did anything. Again, I'm not sure about SF in particular, but nationally the "rising crime narrative" is entirely an artifact of soaring crime, especially violent crimes. For example, homicides have been falling for decades, and then the trend abruptly reversed around 2014. Criminologists have identified specific reversals in cities that experienced large BLM protests immediately following those protests, and this is all pre-pandemic data (the 2020 and 2021 data is still being compiled and analyzed as far as I know). For example (https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w27324.pdf https://www.nber.org/system/files/working_papers/w27324/w273...): > For investigations that were not preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force, investigations, on average, led to a statistically significant reduction in homicides and total crime. In stark contrast, all investigations that were preceded by "viral" incidents of deadly force have led to a large and statistically significant increase in homicides and total crime. We estimate that these investigations caused almost 900 excess homicides and almost 34,000 excess felonies. The leading hypothesis for why these investigations increase homicides and total crime is an abrupt change in the quantity of policing activity. In Chicago, the number of police-civilian interactions decreased by almost 90% in the month after the investigation was announced. In Riverside CA, interactions decreased 54%. In St. Louis, self-initiated police activities declined by 46%.

kansface 4y ago

I think this is normally a good question, but honestly, in what world would I care about numbers when there is a lady screaming 'Help'/'Asshole' for hours at a time at my door, a homeless guy running a bicycle chop shop in front of my building (he uses a 3' stretch of pipe to deconstruct bikes!), people breaking into the building (taking both packages and keys!), the outside of the building is turned into a communal toilet, the local Walgreens gets looted out of business, and people get stabbed uncomfortably often just around the corner? That was my somewhat unfettered, actual pandemic experience in Hayes Valley turned Tenderloin. You could claim that's not entirely the fault of the DA, probably with merit, too, but I just don't care all the same. If the DA claims no agency, takes no responsibility for any of this mess, and the plan is even more of the same thing, whats the point?