8 ms·

Probably the only country that is being honest about its inflation amount then.

by davzie 4y ago

toxik 4y ago
Do you mean to say that other European countries are lying? This proposition seems knee jerk. Inflation can be computed by anyone, so I don’t even understand how you could lie about it.
- throw457 4y ago
  Because he wants it to be. It’s way easier to blame someone acting nefarious than living in reality.
  - yuropeen 4y ago
    - gruez 4y ago
- davzie 4y ago
  We have 9% inflation in the UK but the reality of the costs of things that you need to live a relatively simple life (food, heating oil, fuel costs), have all gone up way more than 9%. A shop that used to cost me £80 a week now cannot be had for under £110. So you can calculate them all you like and look at the data, but the reality in my life is that prices have risen way beyond the 9% we're told is the amount.
  - rawbot 4y ago
    Same here in Germany. My napkin calculations on food & groceries is at least 30%.
    - deleted 4y ago
      [deleted]
  - toxik 4y ago
    That is completely normal, though. Inflation is not the exact price adjustment of every basket of goods over time, that is simply not possible to represent in a single number - rather, it is some arbitrarily chosen basket of goods meant to represent an average household. It does not have to be perfect to be meaningful.
    - yuropeen 4y ago
      > That is completely normal, though. If not using basics like food, fuel, and pricing on rent or mortgage - what are we basing the numbers off of? If it's the stable price of a Spotify subscription, rather than real goods needed to survive, something is horribly off.
      - toxik 4y ago
        That is exactly what inflation is computed from. Like literally.
        gambiting 4y ago
        Then how can it be only 9%? My gas price has increased by 200% in the last few months. In August, my electricity is going up 400%. Petrol alone has gone up by about 50% compared to few months back. Sure bread is still roughly the same as it was. But living costs have absolutely exploded recently, and far far beyond the 9% indicated.
        rwmj 4y ago
        You can calculate your personal inflation rate although you need to start by tracking your expenditures: https://monevator.com/personal-inflation-rate/ https://monevator.com/personal-inflation-rate/
        nerdponx 4y ago
        Because headline inflation is not equivalent to "% change in cost of living", and the media should stop reporting it as such.
  - glenngillen 4y ago
    Here’s a post from last year that I thought did a great job of illustrating your point, and how misleading the reporting of a single inflation number is without also knowing the variance: https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2021/11/24/the-truth-about-inflation/ https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2021/11/24/the-truth-abo...
    - davzie 4y ago
      A great read thanks!
- yuropeen 4y ago
  > Inflation can be computed by anyone, so I don’t even understand how you could lie about it. Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics Choose carefully and cherry-pick how you source your input numbers, as garbage in means garbage out. Then let friendly media spokepersons help your PR quest by stating the numbers as if handed down by God himself. Then let peons on the internet call you conspiratorial. All in all, we shan't worry - these numbers are all simply transitory :)
  - toxik 4y ago
    Basic econometrics is now useless under the parole of “lies, damn lies”. Good stuff. How about you propose a different metric then, that surely will be infallible and completely fair to everyone.
    - yuropeen 4y ago
      - mytherin 4y ago
        > Food, Fuel, Housing - You know, the basics. So, exactly what the HICP contains then [1]? [1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Weights_of_the_components_of_the_euro_area_HICP_(‰)_-_2022.png https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
      - npteljes 4y ago
        "You know" will not do its job, when you're dealing with complex systems. (Or, in my opinion, at any part of life.) You know why don't the web developers just put on the button on the website? You know just a normal button. And it just needs to work normally. On the other hand, I understand the disillusion and the distrust in the establishment, and in experts. People appoint themselves as experts all the time, and put down others by implying that the other don't understand the thing. In case of the current inflation, I don't think that this is what's happening. The source of distrust, I think, is the basic understanding of the metric itself, and the implications drawn from it. For example, that one's monthly spending should be the same amount higher as the inflation. In this regard, inflation is meaningless, at most it's a rule of thumb of sorts. Politicians, of course, will lie to you, and they'll be using anything, including numbers, to back it up. But that still doesn't mean that the method to calculate inflation is meaningless. For one, you can do it for yourself - which is of course hard, because I don't imagine you have historical data for prices of a bunch of products. But for example, if you're willing to trust another source, premium users of Numbeo can get a bunch of historical data, from which you could calculate inflation to your liking, including the products/services you actually buy and use.
- aseembehl 4y ago
  There is a lot of play room in computing inflation numbers. For example, there are assumptions based on which input variables are smoothed out to reduce noise.
- maratc 4y ago
  Inflation is only computed by some central statistics office. The state debt obligations are bound to inflation, so there's a conflict of interest here.
- tejohnso 4y ago
  I thought it was pretty common knowledge that inflation numbers are deceptive and easily manipulated. It's [controversial]. It's the decline of purchasing power over time based on a basket of goods / services. So it all depends on how you fill that basket. [controversial]: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex....
  - panick21_ 4y ago
    That might work for some measures of inflation, but it doesn't work for the 'GDP Deflator' for example. That is a different way to measure inflation (and a more exact one) and it not so easy to fake. And even if we go with CPI stuff, the agencies that do these things try to stay consistent. At least in western countries they don't just do whatever they want. The idea that all departments of all western governments are secretly changing the data inputs to achieve some sort of grand conspiracy about inflation number is pretty much delusional thinking.
    - tejohnso 4y ago
      > The idea that all departments of all western governments are secretly changing the data I don't think they have to do it secretly. They do it in the open, otherwise there wouldn't be an Investopedia article on CPI controversy that clearly indicates a few problems. There's no internal whistle blowing going on. It's in the open. > And even if we go with CPI stuff, the agencies that do these things try to stay consistent. Sure, perhaps they "try", but: "Over the years, the methodology used to calculate the CPI has undergone numerous revisions". "Some critics view the methodological changes and the switch from a cost of goods index (COGI) to a cost of living index (COLI) as a purposeful manipulation that allows the U.S. government to report a lower CPI." My personal problem with CPI is that it doesn't include the cost of purchasing a home. I get it...it's not a "consumer good" or whatever. But if you're talking about inflation, and everyone jumps to CPI for that, then CPI should include it, or maybe the media should stop quoting it so much. It's not representative of what people want it to be. People want a way to quantify how much harder it is to establish a good life with their earnings. And I don't think the government is being honest about that. Maybe it's too much to ask.
throwaway4good 4y ago
The source is eurostat which is an EU institution. But yes. I too think the numbers are correct and largely representative of what is going on.
- arlort 4y ago
  I don't think other countries are lying But eurostat depends on data being provided by national statistics agencies, so it wouldn't really show
whazor 4y ago
Estonia is quite good with technology, maybe they have better inflation measurement techniques?

Probably the only country that is being honest about its inflation amount then.

by davzie 4y ago

Probably the only country that is being honest about its inflation amount then.

Do you mean to say that other European countries are lying? This proposition seems knee jerk. Inflation can be computed by anyone, so I don’t even understand how you could lie about it.

throw457 4y ago
Because he wants it to be. It’s way easier to blame someone acting nefarious than living in reality.
- yuropeen 4y ago
  - gruez 4y ago
davzie 4y ago
We have 9% inflation in the UK but the reality of the costs of things that you need to live a relatively simple life (food, heating oil, fuel costs), have all gone up way more than 9%. A shop that used to cost me £80 a week now cannot be had for under £110. So you can calculate them all you like and look at the data, but the reality in my life is that prices have risen way beyond the 9% we're told is the amount.
- rawbot 4y ago
  Same here in Germany. My napkin calculations on food & groceries is at least 30%.
  - deleted 4y ago
    [deleted]
- toxik 4y ago
  That is completely normal, though. Inflation is not the exact price adjustment of every basket of goods over time, that is simply not possible to represent in a single number - rather, it is some arbitrarily chosen basket of goods meant to represent an average household. It does not have to be perfect to be meaningful.
  - yuropeen 4y ago
    > That is completely normal, though. If not using basics like food, fuel, and pricing on rent or mortgage - what are we basing the numbers off of? If it's the stable price of a Spotify subscription, rather than real goods needed to survive, something is horribly off.
    - toxik 4y ago
      That is exactly what inflation is computed from. Like literally.
      - gambiting 4y ago
        Then how can it be only 9%? My gas price has increased by 200% in the last few months. In August, my electricity is going up 400%. Petrol alone has gone up by about 50% compared to few months back. Sure bread is still roughly the same as it was. But living costs have absolutely exploded recently, and far far beyond the 9% indicated.
        rwmj 4y ago
        You can calculate your personal inflation rate although you need to start by tracking your expenditures: https://monevator.com/personal-inflation-rate/ https://monevator.com/personal-inflation-rate/
        nerdponx 4y ago
        Because headline inflation is not equivalent to "% change in cost of living", and the media should stop reporting it as such.
- glenngillen 4y ago
  Here’s a post from last year that I thought did a great job of illustrating your point, and how misleading the reporting of a single inflation number is without also knowing the variance: https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2021/11/24/the-truth-about-inflation/ https://economicsfromthetopdown.com/2021/11/24/the-truth-abo...
  - davzie 4y ago
    A great read thanks!
yuropeen 4y ago
> Inflation can be computed by anyone, so I don’t even understand how you could lie about it. Lies, Damned Lies and Statistics Choose carefully and cherry-pick how you source your input numbers, as garbage in means garbage out. Then let friendly media spokepersons help your PR quest by stating the numbers as if handed down by God himself. Then let peons on the internet call you conspiratorial. All in all, we shan't worry - these numbers are all simply transitory :)
- toxik 4y ago
  Basic econometrics is now useless under the parole of “lies, damn lies”. Good stuff. How about you propose a different metric then, that surely will be infallible and completely fair to everyone.
  - yuropeen 4y ago
    - mytherin 4y ago
      > Food, Fuel, Housing - You know, the basics. So, exactly what the HICP contains then [1]? [1] https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php?title=File:Weights_of_the_components_of_the_euro_area_HICP_(‰)_-_2022.png https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/statistics-explained/index.php...
    - npteljes 4y ago
      "You know" will not do its job, when you're dealing with complex systems. (Or, in my opinion, at any part of life.) You know why don't the web developers just put on the button on the website? You know just a normal button. And it just needs to work normally. On the other hand, I understand the disillusion and the distrust in the establishment, and in experts. People appoint themselves as experts all the time, and put down others by implying that the other don't understand the thing. In case of the current inflation, I don't think that this is what's happening. The source of distrust, I think, is the basic understanding of the metric itself, and the implications drawn from it. For example, that one's monthly spending should be the same amount higher as the inflation. In this regard, inflation is meaningless, at most it's a rule of thumb of sorts. Politicians, of course, will lie to you, and they'll be using anything, including numbers, to back it up. But that still doesn't mean that the method to calculate inflation is meaningless. For one, you can do it for yourself - which is of course hard, because I don't imagine you have historical data for prices of a bunch of products. But for example, if you're willing to trust another source, premium users of Numbeo can get a bunch of historical data, from which you could calculate inflation to your liking, including the products/services you actually buy and use.
aseembehl 4y ago
There is a lot of play room in computing inflation numbers. For example, there are assumptions based on which input variables are smoothed out to reduce noise.
maratc 4y ago
Inflation is only computed by some central statistics office. The state debt obligations are bound to inflation, so there's a conflict of interest here.
tejohnso 4y ago
I thought it was pretty common knowledge that inflation numbers are deceptive and easily manipulated. It's [controversial]. It's the decline of purchasing power over time based on a basket of goods / services. So it all depends on how you fill that basket. [controversial]: https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex.asp https://www.investopedia.com/articles/07/consumerpriceindex....
- panick21_ 4y ago
  That might work for some measures of inflation, but it doesn't work for the 'GDP Deflator' for example. That is a different way to measure inflation (and a more exact one) and it not so easy to fake. And even if we go with CPI stuff, the agencies that do these things try to stay consistent. At least in western countries they don't just do whatever they want. The idea that all departments of all western governments are secretly changing the data inputs to achieve some sort of grand conspiracy about inflation number is pretty much delusional thinking.
  - tejohnso 4y ago
    > The idea that all departments of all western governments are secretly changing the data I don't think they have to do it secretly. They do it in the open, otherwise there wouldn't be an Investopedia article on CPI controversy that clearly indicates a few problems. There's no internal whistle blowing going on. It's in the open. > And even if we go with CPI stuff, the agencies that do these things try to stay consistent. Sure, perhaps they "try", but: "Over the years, the methodology used to calculate the CPI has undergone numerous revisions". "Some critics view the methodological changes and the switch from a cost of goods index (COGI) to a cost of living index (COLI) as a purposeful manipulation that allows the U.S. government to report a lower CPI." My personal problem with CPI is that it doesn't include the cost of purchasing a home. I get it...it's not a "consumer good" or whatever. But if you're talking about inflation, and everyone jumps to CPI for that, then CPI should include it, or maybe the media should stop quoting it so much. It's not representative of what people want it to be. People want a way to quantify how much harder it is to establish a good life with their earnings. And I don't think the government is being honest about that. Maybe it's too much to ask.

throwaway4good 4y ago

The source is eurostat which is an EU institution. But yes. I too think the numbers are correct and largely representative of what is going on.

arlort 4y ago
I don't think other countries are lying But eurostat depends on data being provided by national statistics agencies, so it wouldn't really show

whazor 4y ago

Estonia is quite good with technology, maybe they have better inflation measurement techniques?