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this will raise temperatures. That might objectively be the case, but it is not the case, according to ESR -- and it is his article that we are discussing. Did

this will raise temperatures. That might objectively be the case, but it is not the case, according to ESR -- and it is his article that we are discussing. Did you read the article?: [I] don’t believe [CO2 emissions are] driving global warming. ... The pressing question, then, remains: What’s going to replace oil? So, aside from greenhouse-gas considerations, why replace oil? . accessible fossil fuels ... will be exhausted in much closer to 100 years than 70,000. For 150 years, oil supplies have continuously been pronounced to be on the verge of running out. And for 150 years, oil production has continuously increased. http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html http://www.radford.edu/~wkovarik/oil/5oilreservehistory.html • 1879 -- US Geological Survey formed in part because of fear of oil shortages. • 1882 -- Institute of Mining Engineers estimates 95 million barrels of oil remain. With 25 milliion barrels per year output, "Some day the cheque will come back indorsed no funds, and we are approaching that day very fast," Samuel Wrigley says. (Pratt, p. 124). ... • 1906 -- Fears of an oil shortage are confirmed by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS). Representatives of the Detroit Board of Commerce attended hearings in Washington and told a Senate hearing that car manufacturers worried "not so much [about] cost as ... supply." • 1919, Scientific American notes that the auto industry could no longer ignore the fact that only 20 years worth of U.S. oil was left. "The burden falls upon the engine. It must adapt itself to less volatile fuel, and it must be made to burn the fuel with less waste.... Automotive engineers must turn their thoughts away from questions of speed and weight... and comfort and endurance, to avert what ... will turn out to be a calamity, seriously disorganizing an indispensable system of transportation." • 1920 -- David White, chief geologist of USGS, estimates total oil remaining in the US at 6.7 billion barrels. "In making this estimate, which included both proved reserves and resources still remaining to be discovered, White conceded that it might well be in error by as much as 25 percent." ... • 1928 -- US analyst Ludwell Denny in his book "We Fight for Oil" noted the domestic oil shortage and says international diplomacy had failed to secure any reliable foreign sources of oil for the United States. Fear of oil shortages would become the most important factor in international relations, even so great as to force the U.S. into war with Great Britain to secure access to oil in the Persian Gulf region, Denny said. • 1926 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 4.5 billion barrels remain. ... • 1932 -- Federal Oil Conservation Board estimates 10 billion barrels of oil remain. • 1944 -- Petroleum Administrator for War estimates 20 billion barrels of oil remain. • 1950 -- American Petroleum Institute says world oil reserves are at 100 billion barrels. ... • 2000 -- Remaining proven oil reserves put at 1016 billion barrels. . Oil production has continuously increased as society has gotten continuously better at finding and exploiting the oil in the earth's crust. Why should we assume that that process would stop any time soon -- especially in the face of estimates of total in-place oil that put our supply lifetime in the tens of thousands of years? http://www.google.com/search?q=2.1+quadrillion+barrels+oil http://www.google.com/search?q=2.1+quadrillion+barrels+oil ~2.1 quadrillion bbl / ~80 million bbl/day = ~72 thousand years of oil.

DaniFong 18y ago
You cannot separate the argument from the objective reality the argument claims to describe. Regarding the wild swings in the estimates of remaining oil, the largest discrepancy comes from the fact that oil in different places requires different amount of toil to extract it. At a certain point, this is too much to pay for all but a few applications (where energy density is needed most, or where the stored hydrocarbons can be used for other purposes). Already the oil infrastructure is some of the most complicated and costly equipment in the world. We don't know where that economic break even point will be, but we do realize that one must exist. This, among other things, is driving futures. Each new type of oil requires a new type of capital investment. The involved parties are making gambles on future technology. Further influencing this is the fact that it's polluting enough to, potentially, influence much of the world away from it, thereby reducing the attractiveness of such bets.
- DabAsteroid 18y ago
  Regarding the wild swings in the estimates of remaining oil What wild swings? Over the last 150 years, they have gone in only one direction -- up. it's polluting enough Please be specific. Are you talking about smog? CO2? to, potentially, influence much of the world away from it Why would that happen now, instead of at any time during the last 150 years? Let's see what Google Images says: http://images.google.com/images?q=world%20oil%20consumption%20chart http://images.google.com/images?q=world%20oil%20consumption%... People and countries seem to like oil. They keep buying more and more of it. Why would they suddenly stop?
  - DaniFong 18y ago
    Wild swings meaning the enormous gulf between the estimates of accessible oil typically cited and the estimates of oil resources you cite. Are you talking about smog? CO2? CO2 most importantly, but smog plays a major role. Why would they stop? We've reached a few inflection points. Americans drive less this year than they did the last. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=business http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=bu... One might gather that price will similarly effect heating costs and flight usage. Fuel economy is one of the foremost items on the minds of Americans now, according to Gallup (#2 in national issues, apparently). http://www.gallup.com/poll/108067/Fuel-Prices-Now-Clearly-Americans-No-Concern.aspx http://www.gallup.com/poll/108067/Fuel-Prices-Now-Clearly-Am... Countries might increasingly wish to reduce their economic dependency on the oil market, as it becomes cheaper and cheaper to do so. There has been much support for an ethanol economy in the US; for example the bipartisan bill to introduce biofuel installations in gas stations. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/08/bill-in-congres.html http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/08/bill-in-congres.html Already Brazil has an ethanol economy, provoked by the 1973 oil crisis. Nations with similar agricultural capability and high oil dependency have the same incentives to guard against future market downturns. Finally, there's the global warming problem. I assume you don't believe CO2 has a major role. But from a pure economic standpoint, it is likely the governments and the populace will increasingly believe it has a major role and will probably do something about it, either collectively or individually. This will probably influence demand to drop, though it may not do so suddenly. Anticipating this, oil companies have a riskier bet to make in large capital investments in heavy oil extraction. Increasingly, such companies will try to diversify into the broader energy business, as many are already making efforts to do.

DaniFong 18y ago

You cannot separate the argument from the objective reality the argument claims to describe. Regarding the wild swings in the estimates of remaining oil, the largest discrepancy comes from the fact that oil in different places requires different amount of toil to extract it. At a certain point, this is too much to pay for all but a few applications (where energy density is needed most, or where the stored hydrocarbons can be used for other purposes). Already the oil infrastructure is some of the most complicated and costly equipment in the world. We don't know where that economic break even point will be, but we do realize that one must exist. This, among other things, is driving futures. Each new type of oil requires a new type of capital investment. The involved parties are making gambles on future technology. Further influencing this is the fact that it's polluting enough to, potentially, influence much of the world away from it, thereby reducing the attractiveness of such bets.

DabAsteroid 18y ago
Regarding the wild swings in the estimates of remaining oil What wild swings? Over the last 150 years, they have gone in only one direction -- up. it's polluting enough Please be specific. Are you talking about smog? CO2? to, potentially, influence much of the world away from it Why would that happen now, instead of at any time during the last 150 years? Let's see what Google Images says: http://images.google.com/images?q=world%20oil%20consumption%20chart http://images.google.com/images?q=world%20oil%20consumption%... People and countries seem to like oil. They keep buying more and more of it. Why would they suddenly stop?
- DaniFong 18y ago
  Wild swings meaning the enormous gulf between the estimates of accessible oil typically cited and the estimates of oil resources you cite. Are you talking about smog? CO2? CO2 most importantly, but smog plays a major role. Why would they stop? We've reached a few inflection points. Americans drive less this year than they did the last. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=business http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/19/business/19gas.html?ref=bu... One might gather that price will similarly effect heating costs and flight usage. Fuel economy is one of the foremost items on the minds of Americans now, according to Gallup (#2 in national issues, apparently). http://www.gallup.com/poll/108067/Fuel-Prices-Now-Clearly-Americans-No-Concern.aspx http://www.gallup.com/poll/108067/Fuel-Prices-Now-Clearly-Am... Countries might increasingly wish to reduce their economic dependency on the oil market, as it becomes cheaper and cheaper to do so. There has been much support for an ethanol economy in the US; for example the bipartisan bill to introduce biofuel installations in gas stations. http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/08/bill-in-congres.html http://www.greencarcongress.com/2008/08/bill-in-congres.html Already Brazil has an ethanol economy, provoked by the 1973 oil crisis. Nations with similar agricultural capability and high oil dependency have the same incentives to guard against future market downturns. Finally, there's the global warming problem. I assume you don't believe CO2 has a major role. But from a pure economic standpoint, it is likely the governments and the populace will increasingly believe it has a major role and will probably do something about it, either collectively or individually. This will probably influence demand to drop, though it may not do so suddenly. Anticipating this, oil companies have a riskier bet to make in large capital investments in heavy oil extraction. Increasingly, such companies will try to diversify into the broader energy business, as many are already making efforts to do.