Here's another way to consider the very deep question: bayesian inference applies to judgments of efficient causation, that is, a relationship between anteceden

Here's another way to consider the very deep question: bayesian inference applies to judgments of efficient causation, that is, a relationship between antecedents and consequents. This kind of judgement is very common, and very useful, but there are other kinds of judgement which may be needed to establish the likelihood of an event...specifically, what could be called "contextual judgement" For example, if we're trying to assess whether 9/11 was an inside job, we'd have to have to develop a sense of the context, specifically, the role of deep state false flags, and of secret societies within the ruling class culture of the United States.