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Although you made some excellent defense for PRC, this episode is something that Chinese would not do even remotely. If a war ever broke out, I cannot say how

Although you made some excellent defense for PRC, this episode is something that Chinese would not do even remotely. If a war ever broke out, I cannot say how many will suffer - but it is for sure PLA won't absolutely have it easy. Their military planners know it. In the long run, economic powers do not see win/loss in nationalistic optics. It is purely an economic calculus. And Taiwan will be a major misstep for China militarily. TBH I don't see an impossibility of reunification in future whenever this topic has come up. It won't be marked with blood, but coercion, if at all. Taiwanese have a strong sense of identity and that is not going anywhere by any kind of subjugation. The calls for reunification is being seeded as a joint wealthy future by few fringe Taiwanese leaders, if recent political dialogue is observed. Militarily, a war here is a lost cause for PRC, when you could slowly 'boil the frog'. As I said, every military planner would keep emotions aside and take it as a calculation.

dirtyid 4y ago
Nationalism, security, economics (like this tech war) are all bundled into the TW dilemma. There are actions short of full scale invasion, like blockade, quarantine or whatever greyzone steps short of full blown invasion with associated calculations. Some form of fourth TW strait crisis is not out of the question with the way things are developing. With respect to Chen's article, it's not particularly targetted at TW actions but response to potential US sanctions trying to contain PRC tech development. Morris Chang of TSMC said he doesn't think it's wise to shift TSMC production off island, and that's probably reflected in thoughts of TW leadership as well. They're not keen on eroding silicon shield. TW without substantial silicon monopoly/dominance relegates island to PRC containment battle ground in 10-20 years, i.e. back to unsinkable aircraft carrier. Historically that's what TW is, prime 1st island chain containment real estate. With respect to reunification, IMO the way cross strait culture is diverging, it will be politically impossible for generations. Like current anti-PRC youth would need to be displaced by another generation more susceptible to PRC overtures (unlikely, given how demographics shaping up - especially low TW birthrate to displace voting power of current gen sentiment), that's something beyond the timeline of current Sino-US competition. Drastic actions is about mitigating damage over next 5-15 years when neither US or PRC has full control over indigenous semi supply chains. Next 10 years is the "decade of concern" where force balance will continuously move in PRC favour while US reorients capabilities. Meanwhile status quo is being shaken by relevant players, and calculation is changing accordingly. A war is as much crisis as opportuniy. More than reunification, deterring/defeating US military that has sustained TW's autonomhy is just as large political victory. That's why PRC keeps referring TW as a "card" being played by US over Sino-US competition. Ultimately it's about deterring/winning against US meddling/containment for good, in every domain. Calculations are for that goal for short/medium timeline, long before any viable political shifts towards peaceful reunifcation.

dirtyid 4y ago

Nationalism, security, economics (like this tech war) are all bundled into the TW dilemma. There are actions short of full scale invasion, like blockade, quarantine or whatever greyzone steps short of full blown invasion with associated calculations. Some form of fourth TW strait crisis is not out of the question with the way things are developing. With respect to Chen's article, it's not particularly targetted at TW actions but response to potential US sanctions trying to contain PRC tech development. Morris Chang of TSMC said he doesn't think it's wise to shift TSMC production off island, and that's probably reflected in thoughts of TW leadership as well. They're not keen on eroding silicon shield. TW without substantial silicon monopoly/dominance relegates island to PRC containment battle ground in 10-20 years, i.e. back to unsinkable aircraft carrier. Historically that's what TW is, prime 1st island chain containment real estate. With respect to reunification, IMO the way cross strait culture is diverging, it will be politically impossible for generations. Like current anti-PRC youth would need to be displaced by another generation more susceptible to PRC overtures (unlikely, given how demographics shaping up - especially low TW birthrate to displace voting power of current gen sentiment), that's something beyond the timeline of current Sino-US competition. Drastic actions is about mitigating damage over next 5-15 years when neither US or PRC has full control over indigenous semi supply chains. Next 10 years is the "decade of concern" where force balance will continuously move in PRC favour while US reorients capabilities. Meanwhile status quo is being shaken by relevant players, and calculation is changing accordingly. A war is as much crisis as opportuniy. More than reunification, deterring/defeating US military that has sustained TW's autonomhy is just as large political victory. That's why PRC keeps referring TW as a "card" being played by US over Sino-US competition. Ultimately it's about deterring/winning against US meddling/containment for good, in every domain. Calculations are for that goal for short/medium timeline, long before any viable political shifts towards peaceful reunifcation.