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For a supposed economist of national repute, juxtaposing TSMC with Taiwan is facepalm meme worthy. China's interest in Taiwan predates TSMC & mobile chips. 'Sem

• NicoJuicy 4y ago
  ASML in the Netherlands and Imec in Belgium fyi. For the rest, i fully agree it will be borderline chaos. They can't even manage COVID with their propaganda.
• dirtyid 4y ago
  > not serious > is moving closer to being reality This article has less to do with TW soverignty but US/PRC tech war. Chen explicitly already presumes rebellious TW to be Chinese territory and TSMC to be a Chinese company under hostile governance that's giving up crown jewels to the enemies (western efforts to get production off island). Proposal is stating the obvious: current sanctions has trapped PRC a few nodes behind. If US tries to increase the gap via additional sanctions before they reshore substantively, PRC can deter by threatening to deny US access to TW expertise and IP to cripple nascent efforts to reshore (via force). It's short term signally that if US goes full out on severe PRC tech sanctions (i.e. Russia tier), forget getting any TW experts to help spin up Arizona fabs. It's recognizing that both sides need time, PRC needs 5-10 years to build indigenous sanction proof supply chain and US needs as much time to reshore from TW (CHIPS act projects account for like 5% of current TSMC production), but if US tries to make things too difficult for PRC, PRC will spoil US efforts as well. It's trying to maintain current status quo that works / doesn't work in anyone's favour. Proposal essentially within bounds of strategic thinking in PRC circles. TLDR is short/medium term US via origin tech controls has leverage during peacetime via sanctions. But PRC has leverage during war time simply because they can destroy TW and in worst case scenario, East Asian semi supply chain. Yeah PRC will suffer, but most of semi production profits goes to western companies, and has disproportionate knock on affect in advanced western industries, like 10s of trillions in productivity for short/medium term. Ultimately she's being polite and ignoring the raze TSMC to the ground option - PRC's mutually assured destruction card to reset everyone to 2000s tech for a few decades. Meanwhile PRC is one of the few countries, if not only, trying to create a wholey indigenous semi supply chain, even if stuck a few nodes behind. It's resetting the gap to same level if not in PRC favour. As for whether she's serious, the interview was posted on guancha not global times. At least in terms of threat/messaging (directed at US), it's somewhat serious. Like her opinion isn't controversial, but it is someone with visibility saying quiet part out loud.
  • srvmshr 4y ago
    Although you made some excellent defense for PRC, this episode is something that Chinese would not do even remotely. If a war ever broke out, I cannot say how many will suffer - but it is for sure PLA won't absolutely have it easy. Their military planners know it. In the long run, economic powers do not see win/loss in nationalistic optics. It is purely an economic calculus. And Taiwan will be a major misstep for China militarily. TBH I don't see an impossibility of reunification in future whenever this topic has come up. It won't be marked with blood, but coercion, if at all. Taiwanese have a strong sense of identity and that is not going anywhere by any kind of subjugation. The calls for reunification is being seeded as a joint wealthy future by few fringe Taiwanese leaders, if recent political dialogue is observed. Militarily, a war here is a lost cause for PRC, when you could slowly 'boil the frog'. As I said, every military planner would keep emotions aside and take it as a calculation.
    • dirtyid 4y ago
      Nationalism, security, economics (like this tech war) are all bundled into the TW dilemma. There are actions short of full scale invasion, like blockade, quarantine or whatever greyzone steps short of full blown invasion with associated calculations. Some form of fourth TW strait crisis is not out of the question with the way things are developing. With respect to Chen's article, it's not particularly targetted at TW actions but response to potential US sanctions trying to contain PRC tech development. Morris Chang of TSMC said he doesn't think it's wise to shift TSMC production off island, and that's probably reflected in thoughts of TW leadership as well. They're not keen on eroding silicon shield. TW without substantial silicon monopoly/dominance relegates island to PRC containment battle ground in 10-20 years, i.e. back to unsinkable aircraft carrier. Historically that's what TW is, prime 1st island chain containment real estate. With respect to reunification, IMO the way cross strait culture is diverging, it will be politically impossible for generations. Like current anti-PRC youth would need to be displaced by another generation more susceptible to PRC overtures (unlikely, given how demographics shaping up - especially low TW birthrate to displace voting power of current gen sentiment), that's something beyond the timeline of current Sino-US competition. Drastic actions is about mitigating damage over next 5-15 years when neither US or PRC has full control over indigenous semi supply chains. Next 10 years is the "decade of concern" where force balance will continuously move in PRC favour while US reorients capabilities. Meanwhile status quo is being shaken by relevant players, and calculation is changing accordingly. A war is as much crisis as opportuniy. More than reunification, deterring/defeating US military that has sustained TW's autonomhy is just as large political victory. That's why PRC keeps referring TW as a "card" being played by US over Sino-US competition. Ultimately it's about deterring/winning against US meddling/containment for good, in every domain. Calculations are for that goal for short/medium timeline, long before any viable political shifts towards peaceful reunifcation.