5 ms·

People employed in manufacturing in the US—not productivity, employees—is about the same as in 1941 just before Pearl Harbor. We had worse tech then, about the

People employed in manufacturing in the US—not productivity, employees—is about the same as in 1941 just before Pearl Harbor. We had worse tech then, about the same number of people working in manufacturing, and our factories produced a tiny fraction of the output per worker that a modern factory does. IOW we should be way more capable of rapid expansion of industrial capacity than 1941 America was, and 1941 America did a pretty damn good job of it over the following few years (months, even). We do also have a lot more domestic demand than then, for multiple reasons, but again, modern factories are way more productive per worker than a factory in 1941. What could lag is specifically high tech manufacturing. A car factory or aluminum plant is one thing. A chip fab is another. That kind of extremely-high-capital-cost ultra-specialized manufacturing, we probably should have been forcing to be at least partly on-shore for security reasons, even if it caused higher prices.

layer8 4y ago
Same in percentage or in absolute numbers?
- corrral 4y ago
  Absolute numbers. Which means we should be able to add even more capacity, faster than they did then, by a large multiple over a similar time period, thanks to productivity increases. Which, again, might be needed because demand is far higher than it was then (population's far higher, standard of living in material terms is higher) but kinda like how we can now produce more food than we need with low-single-digits percentages of the population working in food production, we can produce more with far fewer manufacturing workers than we had back then. How much more productive are we? US employment in manufacturing peaked, in absolute numbers of workers, in 1979. In 2009, we produced about 50% more than in 1979, despite being well on our way to dropping to 1941 levels of people-in-manufacturing (sheer count, not percentage of pop) by that time. My point with the comparison to 1941 is that we should have plenty of expertise around to increase production at a rate similar to the increases in the 6-12 months after Pearl Harbor, if we really needed to. IOW, at least a 50% increase inside a year, or probably about double our 1979 domestic manufacturing output (total, after the increase), and 1979 was solidly in the "the US is a manufacturing titan" phase of US history. Again, however, certain specialized high-tech manufacturing might be an exception (chip fabs, for example). Supply of raw materials might also become a problem. Ability to build or restore/refit normal, industrial factories is not a place I'd expect us to be lacking in know-how, though, because we still do tons of manufacturing.
usrn 4y ago
America was very different in 1941. The culture and demography have completely changed.

layer8 4y ago

Same in percentage or in absolute numbers?

corrral 4y ago
Absolute numbers. Which means we should be able to add even more capacity, faster than they did then, by a large multiple over a similar time period, thanks to productivity increases. Which, again, might be needed because demand is far higher than it was then (population's far higher, standard of living in material terms is higher) but kinda like how we can now produce more food than we need with low-single-digits percentages of the population working in food production, we can produce more with far fewer manufacturing workers than we had back then. How much more productive are we? US employment in manufacturing peaked, in absolute numbers of workers, in 1979. In 2009, we produced about 50% more than in 1979, despite being well on our way to dropping to 1941 levels of people-in-manufacturing (sheer count, not percentage of pop) by that time. My point with the comparison to 1941 is that we should have plenty of expertise around to increase production at a rate similar to the increases in the 6-12 months after Pearl Harbor, if we really needed to. IOW, at least a 50% increase inside a year, or probably about double our 1979 domestic manufacturing output (total, after the increase), and 1979 was solidly in the "the US is a manufacturing titan" phase of US history. Again, however, certain specialized high-tech manufacturing might be an exception (chip fabs, for example). Supply of raw materials might also become a problem. Ability to build or restore/refit normal, industrial factories is not a place I'd expect us to be lacking in know-how, though, because we still do tons of manufacturing.

usrn 4y ago

America was very different in 1941. The culture and demography have completely changed.