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The big problem for the US in the near future is: the US dollar is suffering massive inflation. As this happens, they lose purchasing power, even compared to na

The big problem for the US in the near future is: the US dollar is suffering massive inflation. As this happens, they lose purchasing power, even compared to nations like China, and especially oil producing nations of OPEC. This happens at the same time when China and their trading partners are looking to decouple from USD holdings, afraid of the threats made by the US. Don't be fooled, this is the beginning of a realignment where commodity exporting nations will start to privilege Asian countries and reduce their exposure to US/EU nations that will spend several years mired on stagflation.

pirate787 4y ago
This isn't really supported by the data. Chinese inflation is comparable to US inflation and many other countries are experience worse inflation than the States.
- somenameforme 4y ago
  What data in particular are you talking about? US Inflation Rate (currently 8.3%) : https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi Chinese Inflation Rate (currently 2.1%): https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi I'll grant CPI is not necessarily apples to apples because how companies compose their weightings tends to vary heavily, but it seems like the most reasonable figure to look at that I can think of?
  - jtdev 4y ago
    [dead]
  - pirate787 4y ago
    Bond market perspective -- Chinese govt bond yields are basically the same as the US. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/china-inflation-makes-it-harder-for-pboc-to-cut-interest-rates-us-fed.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/china-inflation-makes-it-har...
    - somenameforme 4y ago
      I don't see why you think these would be driven primarily by inflation. US bond yields: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-y... Chinese bond yields: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/china/government-bond-yield A note on their UI, the button to increase the scale is micro-sized and at the bottom of the graph. It can be easy to miss. But in any case, there seems to be little to no correlation.
  - sarchertech 4y ago
    https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=1Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=1Y You can directly compare the 2 currencies against each other.
    - somenameforme 4y ago
      International exchange rates are affected by enough factors that it has little correlation to inflation. Notably, see the ruble: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1Y Russia is having significant domestic inflation (at about 18% currently), yet the ruble is currently the worlds best performing currency and stronger than it's been in years relative to the dollar.
thehappypm 4y ago
This would make sense on the surface except the US dollar is strengthening against basically all currencies. Perhaps we’re inflating but everyone else is simply inflating far more.
- jjtheblunt 4y ago
  how do you find the data to support this? finance.google.com or similar?
  - engineer_22 4y ago
    just google "usd [country] exchange rate"
- coliveira 4y ago
  This happens because the US is exporting inflation. That is, countries need to sell more of their local currency and use more USD to buy the same quantities of dollar denominated products, resulting in the USD going up. This is one of the reasons why they will try to decouple from the USD. In the past, countries had no other option than to continue using dollars. Nowadays there is a growing group of nations willing to trade in other currencies.
  - adamc 4y ago
    Maybe in Euros. Otherwise, I'll believe it when I see it. China's handling of its economy has not been stellar and I don't know that folks will be in a hurry to use RMB. There's lots wrong with the dollar (or even the Euro), but... the alternatives aren't so great either.

pirate787 4y ago

This isn't really supported by the data. Chinese inflation is comparable to US inflation and many other countries are experience worse inflation than the States.

somenameforme 4y ago
What data in particular are you talking about? US Inflation Rate (currently 8.3%) : https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi Chinese Inflation Rate (currently 2.1%): https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/inflation-cpi I'll grant CPI is not necessarily apples to apples because how companies compose their weightings tends to vary heavily, but it seems like the most reasonable figure to look at that I can think of?
- jtdev 4y ago
  [dead]
- pirate787 4y ago
  Bond market perspective -- Chinese govt bond yields are basically the same as the US. https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/china-inflation-makes-it-harder-for-pboc-to-cut-interest-rates-us-fed.html https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/12/china-inflation-makes-it-har...
  - somenameforme 4y ago
    I don't see why you think these would be driven primarily by inflation. US bond yields: https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/government-bond-y... Chinese bond yields: https://tradingeconomics.com/china/government-bond-yield https://tradingeconomics.com/china/government-bond-yield A note on their UI, the button to increase the scale is micro-sized and at the bottom of the graph. It can be easy to miss. But in any case, there seems to be little to no correlation.
- sarchertech 4y ago
  https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=1Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=CNY&view=1Y You can directly compare the 2 currencies against each other.
  - somenameforme 4y ago
    International exchange rates are affected by enough factors that it has little correlation to inflation. Notably, see the ruble: https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1Y https://www.xe.com/currencycharts/?from=USD&to=RUB&view=1Y Russia is having significant domestic inflation (at about 18% currently), yet the ruble is currently the worlds best performing currency and stronger than it's been in years relative to the dollar.

thehappypm 4y ago

This would make sense on the surface except the US dollar is strengthening against basically all currencies. Perhaps we’re inflating but everyone else is simply inflating far more.

jjtheblunt 4y ago
how do you find the data to support this? finance.google.com or similar?
- engineer_22 4y ago
  just google "usd [country] exchange rate"
coliveira 4y ago
This happens because the US is exporting inflation. That is, countries need to sell more of their local currency and use more USD to buy the same quantities of dollar denominated products, resulting in the USD going up. This is one of the reasons why they will try to decouple from the USD. In the past, countries had no other option than to continue using dollars. Nowadays there is a growing group of nations willing to trade in other currencies.
- adamc 4y ago
  Maybe in Euros. Otherwise, I'll believe it when I see it. China's handling of its economy has not been stellar and I don't know that folks will be in a hurry to use RMB. There's lots wrong with the dollar (or even the Euro), but... the alternatives aren't so great either.