3 ms·

> The insect apocalypse is already here, and we are fucked. Wasn't there a post a year or so back on HN that basically said it's a measurement problem, not an

> The insect apocalypse is already here, and we are fucked. Wasn't there a post a year or so back on HN that basically said it's a measurement problem, not an actual insect apocalypse? I'll have to try to find that. Seems like I can never know what to believe any more. I'd also want to know ... what does it matter? Are we seeing measurable knock-on effects from fewer insects? We should be, if they're critical to our ecosystems. If we're not, then... do we care? Seems like a legitimate question. Not that we want them to go extinct necessarily, but it could be worth tempering the panic.

Tagbert 4y ago
There was an article a few months ago using measurements of impacts to license plates and it found a real drop of 60% in insect populations. The license plate is place to measure as it is not really affected by the airflow changes that some people suggest are the reason we see fewer impact. Here is a news story: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2022/05/10/in-the-uk-thousands-of-drivers-have-confirmed-the-collapse-of-the-insect-population_5982945_114.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2022/05/10/in-... With so many insects missing, that is likely to have impacts on other animals and plants that would eventually impact humans. These creatures are food for other animals and pollinators for crop plants. Beyond that, insect loss is an indicator that something is happening to our environment and the effects are probably not going to be positive. Treat this as a warning. Edit: added statement about license plat vs airflow
- bitxbitxbitcoin 4y ago
  Is it possible that it is a redistribution of the insect population to have more walkers than flyers or maybe even flying insects have learned how to avoid vehicles? How have bird strikes by cars changed over the last century? What if part of the issue is that we aren’t accounting for certain species starting to fly 8 feet higher?m because of the obvious evolutionary pressure?
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  I actually wouldn't be surprised at all if we've improved airflow relative to license plates, as well. The whole push to increase fuel economy means figuring out how to get air not to hit anything head-on, which includes bumpers and license plates. But in any case, I really would like better metrics than license plates and windshields. It amounts to anecdotes masquerading as data, and I have to assume that there are scientists who've made more accurate measures over the years that are more objective.
  - Tagbert 4y ago
    I'm not sure that anyone thought it important enough to gather the data before.
giraffe_lady 4y ago
Yes historically we're very good at evaluating which ecological changes will have impactful second-order effects. No reason at all to break our pattern of confidently declaring that it seems fine.
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  If we can't identify any second order effects, it calls into question the validity of the original claim, though. I'm not too impressed by talk of windshield bug splatter count, because it smells a lot like folk 'science' and not real data. A lack of second order effects reinforces that suspicion. I'm quite sure there's some real science going on, but it isn't as headline worthy.
  - Comevius 4y ago
    The scientific evidence for insect population collapse is strong, but the consequences to the rest of the ecosystem can remain subtle for a long time, until they are not. A death by a thousands cut is the closest analogy. Complex systems don't collapse in a linear fashion. Their seemingly sudden collapse is only suprising beause of our inability to notice and connect the subtle changes.
hedora 4y ago
Off the top of my head, we've been seeing crop failures due to lack of pollnators, and also bird population collapses in recent years. Most wildlife indirectly eats insects as part of the food chain, and without insects most native plants will go extinct, so herbivores are mostly screwed too. Without local plants you get other screwed up ecosystem issues. For instance, California's hills used to be green, not dead and yellow in the summer. That helps accelerate desertification. If things continue down this road, we're completely fucked. Sometimes, I think nuking the politicians is the greenest path forward. But, hey, it's election day here in California. Better go vote.
- jessaustin 4y ago
  Better go vote. In the 1960s a number of people, at least one of whom had been elected to high office, who were improving this nation were assassinated, because several parties didn't like those improvements. Although some progress has been made since then, on many measures we've gone downhill. This process seems impervious to the popular vote. Perhaps it's time for another round of assassinations?
- spaniard89277 4y ago
  There are farmers renting bees that are flown by airplane to places.
toss1 4y ago
If you wait until the damaging effects of the collapse are already substantially affecting us, it is waaay too late by then. For most of the time of the event, you won't see any ill effects of a piano falling out of a building above your head, but if you wait to act until it starts crushing your hat, you are waaayy too late. There are literal armies of scientists observing and working on this problem, and mountains of data, but you seem to think that your willful ignorance by reductive 'reasoning' is more relevant. There's far too much information to even begin to list here, but I'll suggest you start with the Xerces society [1] if you want to become informed. [1] https://xerces.org/ https://xerces.org/
- rootusrootus 4y ago
  > but you seem to think that your willful ignorance by reductive 'reasoning' is more relevant Thanks for the personal attack. Instead of just bringing something more useful than windshield studies into the discussion. My complaint was that we keep hearing about windshields, when real data ought to exist. I'll take a look at your link, even if I'm inclined to suspect the bias of the source.
  - toss1 4y ago
    Not meaning to be personal, but reductionist approaches are too often a way for brains to make bad assessments and decisions. Although reductionism has the benefit of being "efficient" and reducing cognitive load required to find a conclusion, it is often like the hapless drunk looking for his key under the streetlight instead of where he most likely lost it. Also unimpressive are arguments based on casual encounter with the issues that armies of scientists must have missed some One_Thing, and these arguments are often used in anti-science advocacy, so maybe I've got too little patience for that sort of thing. Here's some more data: first a famous German study showing 82% loss in nature preserves over just three decades [0], and then a meta-study of 166 studies (including the first one) [1]. Good luck and I'd suggest also looking into system dynamics, where even getting a clue of the complexity can lead you to avoid many pitfalls. [0] https://www.science.org/content/article/germany-s-insects-are-disappearing https://www.science.org/content/article/germany-s-insects-ar... [1] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-study-gives-more-complex-picture-insect-declines-180974749/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-study-gives-mo...

Tagbert 4y ago

There was an article a few months ago using measurements of impacts to license plates and it found a real drop of 60% in insect populations. The license plate is place to measure as it is not really affected by the airflow changes that some people suggest are the reason we see fewer impact. Here is a news story: https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2022/05/10/in-the-uk-thousands-of-drivers-have-confirmed-the-collapse-of-the-insect-population_5982945_114.html https://www.lemonde.fr/en/environment/article/2022/05/10/in-... With so many insects missing, that is likely to have impacts on other animals and plants that would eventually impact humans. These creatures are food for other animals and pollinators for crop plants. Beyond that, insect loss is an indicator that something is happening to our environment and the effects are probably not going to be positive. Treat this as a warning. Edit: added statement about license plat vs airflow

bitxbitxbitcoin 4y ago
Is it possible that it is a redistribution of the insect population to have more walkers than flyers or maybe even flying insects have learned how to avoid vehicles? How have bird strikes by cars changed over the last century? What if part of the issue is that we aren’t accounting for certain species starting to fly 8 feet higher?m because of the obvious evolutionary pressure?
rootusrootus 4y ago
I actually wouldn't be surprised at all if we've improved airflow relative to license plates, as well. The whole push to increase fuel economy means figuring out how to get air not to hit anything head-on, which includes bumpers and license plates. But in any case, I really would like better metrics than license plates and windshields. It amounts to anecdotes masquerading as data, and I have to assume that there are scientists who've made more accurate measures over the years that are more objective.
- Tagbert 4y ago
  I'm not sure that anyone thought it important enough to gather the data before.

giraffe_lady 4y ago

Yes historically we're very good at evaluating which ecological changes will have impactful second-order effects. No reason at all to break our pattern of confidently declaring that it seems fine.

rootusrootus 4y ago
If we can't identify any second order effects, it calls into question the validity of the original claim, though. I'm not too impressed by talk of windshield bug splatter count, because it smells a lot like folk 'science' and not real data. A lack of second order effects reinforces that suspicion. I'm quite sure there's some real science going on, but it isn't as headline worthy.
- Comevius 4y ago
  The scientific evidence for insect population collapse is strong, but the consequences to the rest of the ecosystem can remain subtle for a long time, until they are not. A death by a thousands cut is the closest analogy. Complex systems don't collapse in a linear fashion. Their seemingly sudden collapse is only suprising beause of our inability to notice and connect the subtle changes.

hedora 4y ago

Off the top of my head, we've been seeing crop failures due to lack of pollnators, and also bird population collapses in recent years. Most wildlife indirectly eats insects as part of the food chain, and without insects most native plants will go extinct, so herbivores are mostly screwed too. Without local plants you get other screwed up ecosystem issues. For instance, California's hills used to be green, not dead and yellow in the summer. That helps accelerate desertification. If things continue down this road, we're completely fucked. Sometimes, I think nuking the politicians is the greenest path forward. But, hey, it's election day here in California. Better go vote.

jessaustin 4y ago
Better go vote. In the 1960s a number of people, at least one of whom had been elected to high office, who were improving this nation were assassinated, because several parties didn't like those improvements. Although some progress has been made since then, on many measures we've gone downhill. This process seems impervious to the popular vote. Perhaps it's time for another round of assassinations?
spaniard89277 4y ago
There are farmers renting bees that are flown by airplane to places.

toss1 4y ago

If you wait until the damaging effects of the collapse are already substantially affecting us, it is waaay too late by then. For most of the time of the event, you won't see any ill effects of a piano falling out of a building above your head, but if you wait to act until it starts crushing your hat, you are waaayy too late. There are literal armies of scientists observing and working on this problem, and mountains of data, but you seem to think that your willful ignorance by reductive 'reasoning' is more relevant. There's far too much information to even begin to list here, but I'll suggest you start with the Xerces society [1] if you want to become informed. [1] https://xerces.org/ https://xerces.org/

rootusrootus 4y ago
> but you seem to think that your willful ignorance by reductive 'reasoning' is more relevant Thanks for the personal attack. Instead of just bringing something more useful than windshield studies into the discussion. My complaint was that we keep hearing about windshields, when real data ought to exist. I'll take a look at your link, even if I'm inclined to suspect the bias of the source.
- toss1 4y ago
  Not meaning to be personal, but reductionist approaches are too often a way for brains to make bad assessments and decisions. Although reductionism has the benefit of being "efficient" and reducing cognitive load required to find a conclusion, it is often like the hapless drunk looking for his key under the streetlight instead of where he most likely lost it. Also unimpressive are arguments based on casual encounter with the issues that armies of scientists must have missed some One_Thing, and these arguments are often used in anti-science advocacy, so maybe I've got too little patience for that sort of thing. Here's some more data: first a famous German study showing 82% loss in nature preserves over just three decades [0], and then a meta-study of 166 studies (including the first one) [1]. Good luck and I'd suggest also looking into system dynamics, where even getting a clue of the complexity can lead you to avoid many pitfalls. [0] https://www.science.org/content/article/germany-s-insects-are-disappearing https://www.science.org/content/article/germany-s-insects-ar... [1] https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-study-gives-more-complex-picture-insect-declines-180974749/ https://www.smithsonianmag.com/smart-news/new-study-gives-mo...