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This will not do much with Taiwan being a single source for semiconductor manufacturing supplies. Much of critical blockers for chemicals, consumables, materia

This will not do much with Taiwan being a single source for semiconductor manufacturing supplies. Much of critical blockers for chemicals, consumables, materials will still be in Taiwan just because the semi industry is that huge there. All 300mm fabs working outside of Taiwan are just few shipments of consumables away from stalling all the time. When Russia attacks Ukraine, the 3rd world is fucked. When China attacks Taiwan, the 1st world is fucked.

lm28469 4y ago
What makes Taiwan inherently better than somewhere else ? If it's just for historical and/or economical reason I don't see why Europe or the US couldn't build their own chemical plants. You have to start somewhere, it took us decades to delocalise everything to Asia, it'll take decades to build these industries locally.
- baybal2 4y ago
  You have just asked why we can't "just move manufacturing out of China:" There are no individual chemical plants, there are huge chemical complexes owned by many companies with own well guarded know hows. There may be 2-4 suppliers in a row producing some intermediary product used in making of only 1 output. Just to make the semiconductor grade hyperpure propanol you need ultrapure catalysts, ultrapure sulphuric acid, ultrapure water, and ultrapure input hydrocarbon stock. Ah, forgot, you also needs an ultrapure tare manufacturer, because bottles you ship ultrapure materials are single use. You need decades just to replicate this. Now you need to move 100+ of such material chains. > If it's just for historical and/or economical reason Simple answer, yes! Taiwan has quietly swallowed near an entirety of the wider precision manufacturing industry. It been consistently swallowing very capital intensive industries producing exportable niche products one after another simply because nobody else been taking such hard, and risky ventures. Yes, their profitability is not high, but their "moat" is gigantic. Taiwan been an industrial titan for 20+ years, and the US only finds out about it now.
  - JoachimS 4y ago
    Excellent explanation.
  - wtetzner 4y ago
    > You need decades just to replicate this. Now you need to move 100+ of such material chains. Better get started right away then. "The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today."
    - weregiraffe 4y ago
      >"The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today." "The best time to stop quoting stale platitudes is 20 years ago. The next best time is today."
  - mlyle 4y ago
    > You need decades just to replicate this. Now you need to move 100+ of such material chains. I think decades is a stretch. Keep in mind most of these chains sprung up in the last 3 decades organically in Taiwan and China (and many of them are still elsewhere-- e.g. BASF is still a titan.) If it's a national priority, you can get some production going a lot faster than this.
    - baybal2 4y ago
      > If it's a national priority, you can get some production going a lot faster than this. Defeating CoVID was too a national priority. Did they manage to build a single new mask manufacturing line? No, but they actually tried really hard. Dozens of companies were recruited for the effort, and they just gave up after realising that they can't even get a single part in the blowing machine to be made in the US.
      - mlyle 4y ago
        > Defeating CoVID was too a national priority. Did they manage to build a single new mask manufacturing line? I don't think this is a fair representation of what happened. US capacity existed and some additional came online, but then largely failed because of overseas product still coming in below their cost. Semiconductors after a shooting war with China would be a different picture: an imminent return to normalcy wouldn't be in everyone's economic calculations. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/business/dealbook/american-mask-makers.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/business/dealbook/america... > that they can't even get a single part in the blowing machine to be made in the US. Not even a single part? Now you're in hyperbole-land.
dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago
Your argument sounds like one for local investment in fabs. The point is that you develop industry (with subsidies) and the ancillary industries follow and then you (and the rest of the world) are not dependent on a single source. Of course it's not enough to just pay Intel to open a fab you have to compete successfully with places like Taiwan and have a growing industry, otherwise that won't happen. That's the main risk here.
ratww 4y ago
So Europe needs to start making supply factories, too. With a fab, that's still difficult, but necessary. Without a fab, however, that would have been deemed impossible and unrealistic.
_fat_santa 4y ago
> When China attacks Taiwan, the 1st world is fucked. China would be shooting themselves in the foot by invading, because it would equally fuck them. I've read in may places that as soon as China invades, Taiwan will blow up all the fabs and supporting supply lines. So even if China takes control of Taiwan, the semiconductor industry will be a smoldering pile of nothingness. This article[1] does a great job in describing why this would be the case. Even if China prevents the destruction of those fabs and factories, there would still be tons of obstacles. [1]: https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan
- vimy 4y ago
  I talked to Chinese people about Taiwan. They are very emotional about it (anger and hate). Don’t expect China to act logical.
  - pphysch 4y ago
    Please don't make such generalizations. The average Chinese person is no more responsible for Chinese foreign policy than the average American is for American foreign policy.
    - vimy 4y ago
      The point was that China’s leaders are emotional about it too. They grew up with the same propaganda.
      - pphysch 4y ago
        Beijing's interest in Taiwan is not emotional. It's as realist as it gets. During the Opium Wars, foreign invaders occupied many of the mainland's ocean ports. Taiwan, as part of the First Island Chain, represents a critical strategic asset for those wishing to control mainland China.
    - tick_tock_tick 4y ago
      What!!! The average American's views absolutely have a huge impact on foreign policy... Why would you assume it's different in China?
Pxtl 4y ago
Resource extraction and refinement are much lower capital-cost infrastructure than a chip fab. If, God forbid, all the eggs in that one basket get smashed, it's far more feasible for that infrastructure to be developed elsewhere. It would still suck in the interrim, of course.
hammock 4y ago
> semiconductor manufacturing supplies Which supplies specifically? Aren’t the big ones just silicon and solvents?
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
kken 4y ago
>Much of critical blockers for chemicals, consumables, materials will still be in Taiwan just because the semi industry is that huge there. You mean like Linde, Air Liquide, Dow, Merck, BASF, Entegris, Shiply, Fujifilm, Wacker and so on? Those are not Taiwanese.

lm28469 4y ago

What makes Taiwan inherently better than somewhere else ? If it's just for historical and/or economical reason I don't see why Europe or the US couldn't build their own chemical plants. You have to start somewhere, it took us decades to delocalise everything to Asia, it'll take decades to build these industries locally.

baybal2 4y ago
You have just asked why we can't "just move manufacturing out of China:" There are no individual chemical plants, there are huge chemical complexes owned by many companies with own well guarded know hows. There may be 2-4 suppliers in a row producing some intermediary product used in making of only 1 output. Just to make the semiconductor grade hyperpure propanol you need ultrapure catalysts, ultrapure sulphuric acid, ultrapure water, and ultrapure input hydrocarbon stock. Ah, forgot, you also needs an ultrapure tare manufacturer, because bottles you ship ultrapure materials are single use. You need decades just to replicate this. Now you need to move 100+ of such material chains. > If it's just for historical and/or economical reason Simple answer, yes! Taiwan has quietly swallowed near an entirety of the wider precision manufacturing industry. It been consistently swallowing very capital intensive industries producing exportable niche products one after another simply because nobody else been taking such hard, and risky ventures. Yes, their profitability is not high, but their "moat" is gigantic. Taiwan been an industrial titan for 20+ years, and the US only finds out about it now.
- JoachimS 4y ago
  Excellent explanation.
- wtetzner 4y ago
  > You need decades just to replicate this. Now you need to move 100+ of such material chains. Better get started right away then. "The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today."
  - weregiraffe 4y ago
    >"The best time to plant a tree is 20 years ago. The next best time is today." "The best time to stop quoting stale platitudes is 20 years ago. The next best time is today."
- mlyle 4y ago
  > You need decades just to replicate this. Now you need to move 100+ of such material chains. I think decades is a stretch. Keep in mind most of these chains sprung up in the last 3 decades organically in Taiwan and China (and many of them are still elsewhere-- e.g. BASF is still a titan.) If it's a national priority, you can get some production going a lot faster than this.
  - baybal2 4y ago
    > If it's a national priority, you can get some production going a lot faster than this. Defeating CoVID was too a national priority. Did they manage to build a single new mask manufacturing line? No, but they actually tried really hard. Dozens of companies were recruited for the effort, and they just gave up after realising that they can't even get a single part in the blowing machine to be made in the US.
    - mlyle 4y ago
      > Defeating CoVID was too a national priority. Did they manage to build a single new mask manufacturing line? I don't think this is a fair representation of what happened. US capacity existed and some additional came online, but then largely failed because of overseas product still coming in below their cost. Semiconductors after a shooting war with China would be a different picture: an imminent return to normalcy wouldn't be in everyone's economic calculations. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/business/dealbook/american-mask-makers.html https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/business/dealbook/america... > that they can't even get a single part in the blowing machine to be made in the US. Not even a single part? Now you're in hyperbole-land.

dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago

Your argument sounds like one for local investment in fabs. The point is that you develop industry (with subsidies) and the ancillary industries follow and then you (and the rest of the world) are not dependent on a single source. Of course it's not enough to just pay Intel to open a fab you have to compete successfully with places like Taiwan and have a growing industry, otherwise that won't happen. That's the main risk here.

ratww 4y ago

So Europe needs to start making supply factories, too. With a fab, that's still difficult, but necessary. Without a fab, however, that would have been deemed impossible and unrealistic.

_fat_santa 4y ago

> When China attacks Taiwan, the 1st world is fucked. China would be shooting themselves in the foot by invading, because it would equally fuck them. I've read in may places that as soon as China invades, Taiwan will blow up all the fabs and supporting supply lines. So even if China takes control of Taiwan, the semiconductor industry will be a smoldering pile of nothingness. This article[1] does a great job in describing why this would be the case. Even if China prevents the destruction of those fabs and factories, there would still be tons of obstacles. [1]: https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan https://doxa.substack.com/p/why-a-chinese-invasion-of-taiwan

vimy 4y ago
I talked to Chinese people about Taiwan. They are very emotional about it (anger and hate). Don’t expect China to act logical.
- pphysch 4y ago
  Please don't make such generalizations. The average Chinese person is no more responsible for Chinese foreign policy than the average American is for American foreign policy.
  - vimy 4y ago
    The point was that China’s leaders are emotional about it too. They grew up with the same propaganda.
    - pphysch 4y ago
      Beijing's interest in Taiwan is not emotional. It's as realist as it gets. During the Opium Wars, foreign invaders occupied many of the mainland's ocean ports. Taiwan, as part of the First Island Chain, represents a critical strategic asset for those wishing to control mainland China.
  - tick_tock_tick 4y ago
    What!!! The average American's views absolutely have a huge impact on foreign policy... Why would you assume it's different in China?

Pxtl 4y ago

Resource extraction and refinement are much lower capital-cost infrastructure than a chip fab. If, God forbid, all the eggs in that one basket get smashed, it's far more feasible for that infrastructure to be developed elsewhere. It would still suck in the interrim, of course.

hammock 4y ago

> semiconductor manufacturing supplies Which supplies specifically? Aren’t the big ones just silicon and solvents?

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

kken 4y ago

>Much of critical blockers for chemicals, consumables, materials will still be in Taiwan just because the semi industry is that huge there. You mean like Linde, Air Liquide, Dow, Merck, BASF, Entegris, Shiply, Fujifilm, Wacker and so on? Those are not Taiwanese.