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> but the ruble dropped and then bounced back. It doesn't mean much. If I remember it right, back in USSR time, the ruble rate was about 1.6 for a dollar. Yet

> but the ruble dropped and then bounced back. It doesn't mean much. If I remember it right, back in USSR time, the ruble rate was about 1.6 for a dollar. Yet people couldn't buy toilet paper whenever they needed it. There was a severe deficit of pretty much everything. It's not going to be like in the 90s - the economy is very different, but sugar shortages just three-four weeks into the war is not a good sign. It will get tough for Russians, which is not beneficial to anyone - not for them, nor for Europeans, Americans, or Chinese.

yardie 4y ago
Sugar isn't a good indicator of much. Russia basically got their sugar from the country they just invaded. And Ukraine is just in a shitty strategic location. No one really cared about them until it became blindingly obvious they have a strategic location important to Russia. The sugar problem will resolve itself in a few months. The oil-based energy problem (where Russia holds the advantage) is going to take years to untangle.
- agapon 4y ago
  whoosh!
- iLemming 4y ago
  I agree, sugar perhaps is not a good indicator. There wasn't an actual shortage of sugar, it was a short-lived market panic. But, still, many other sectors of the Russian economy are already suffering - automakers, air travel & cargo are good examples. Some big tech companies like Cisco have entirely left the market, which is neither good for Russians nor Cisco. They already come $200M short in their quarterly. The layoffs didn't follow only because Cisco already slashed thousands of jobs last year due to the pandemic. Yes, there will be a lot of money in hard currency from oil and gas, but without access to high-tech & parts (which not many countries would sell to Russia), it's gonna pull the entire country into stagnation.
agapon 4y ago
It was actually 1.6 dollars for 1 soviet ruble. But it was impossible to freely buy dollars at that rate.
- iLemming 4y ago
  Aye, I got it backwards. My bad. Update... no wait, dollar was about 60 kopeeks, so for 1 dollar you'd get 1.6 soviet roubles, I was right, no?

yardie 4y ago

Sugar isn't a good indicator of much. Russia basically got their sugar from the country they just invaded. And Ukraine is just in a shitty strategic location. No one really cared about them until it became blindingly obvious they have a strategic location important to Russia. The sugar problem will resolve itself in a few months. The oil-based energy problem (where Russia holds the advantage) is going to take years to untangle.

agapon 4y ago
whoosh!
iLemming 4y ago
I agree, sugar perhaps is not a good indicator. There wasn't an actual shortage of sugar, it was a short-lived market panic. But, still, many other sectors of the Russian economy are already suffering - automakers, air travel & cargo are good examples. Some big tech companies like Cisco have entirely left the market, which is neither good for Russians nor Cisco. They already come $200M short in their quarterly. The layoffs didn't follow only because Cisco already slashed thousands of jobs last year due to the pandemic. Yes, there will be a lot of money in hard currency from oil and gas, but without access to high-tech & parts (which not many countries would sell to Russia), it's gonna pull the entire country into stagnation.

agapon 4y ago

It was actually 1.6 dollars for 1 soviet ruble. But it was impossible to freely buy dollars at that rate.

iLemming 4y ago
Aye, I got it backwards. My bad. Update... no wait, dollar was about 60 kopeeks, so for 1 dollar you'd get 1.6 soviet roubles, I was right, no?