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Just checked the Tesla site. Only 2 cars new are available to me within 200 miles of my zip code: they're both 2022 model S and the one is $143,990 and the othe

Just checked the Tesla site. Only 2 cars new are available to me within 200 miles of my zip code: they're both 2022 model S and the one is $143,990 and the other is $149,490. That's way beyond my budget. Okay. Let's look at Tesla's used inventory. At least several cars are available, the cheapest being a 2020 Model 3 for $56,900. The last car I bought was in 2018 and it was a 2015 Honda Civic I picked up for $11,500. Now figure that I drive, at the most, 20,000 miles per year and I have a fuel efficiency of 35 MPG. That means my max fuel consumption rate is roughly 575 gallons per year. Even if gas hit ten dollars per gallon I'd still only be paying $5,750 per year in fuel. At that rate the payback for buying the cheapest Tesla available to me would be 8 years! And that's assuming gas were to jump to $10 per gallon! And that's why I haven't pulled the trigger on getting a Tesla. The value proposition simply isn't there for me. Now, if you were someone who routinely bought cars in the $30K-$50K price range then this would be a different analysis and a different discussion.

sliken 4y ago
Sure, Tesla's doing well, and despite an impressive production ramp supply is not meeting demand. So buying one will require getting lucky, paying top $, or preordering. I would however suggest looking at total cost to own: including not just gas, but oil changes, maintenance, and even the gas and time spent getting to/from oil/gas/maintenance. I had a 2004 Subaru Forester and was surprised how much I was spending on gas, oil changes, and maintenance. Had a head gasket go and that was pretty expensive. So far the Tesla's been just purchase price, my home electricity rate (except for $50 ish of supercharging), and costs for a second set of tires at 30k miles. Used cars do decreases costs, but if buying new the model 3 often wins comparisons on cost to own against Toyota Camry and Honda Accords.
- bradlys 4y ago
  TCO is complicated though. If you start including other scenarios like when there is something wrong with your Tesla - you could be waiting 3+ months for the parts for your car to be fixed and it might not be useable during that time. This isn’t the same for most others.
  - sliken 4y ago
    Agreed, trick is to account for the media's tendency to skew the facts. For instance it seems to be approximately 100x more likely that a Tesla that catches on fire make the news than a gas car. You could easily conclude Tesla's catch on fire more than gas cars and the published statistics confirm the Tesla's are radically less likely to catch fire. I've know quite a few Tesla owners (3 on my street), joined a Tesla slack channel for my org with dozens of users, visit various Telsa forums, and I can't say I've heard the 3+ month story from any of them. I did see it pop up on the news, but not at all sure that it's more common than other vendors. It does seem like Tesla is doing generally better than the competition in not halting production because of parts shortages.
    - frumper 4y ago
      I'll add a nice benefit I had with Tesla. I had a non-emergency warranty issue with the drivers side window and a scheduled a tech to come to my house and fix it.

sliken 4y ago

Sure, Tesla's doing well, and despite an impressive production ramp supply is not meeting demand. So buying one will require getting lucky, paying top $, or preordering. I would however suggest looking at total cost to own: including not just gas, but oil changes, maintenance, and even the gas and time spent getting to/from oil/gas/maintenance. I had a 2004 Subaru Forester and was surprised how much I was spending on gas, oil changes, and maintenance. Had a head gasket go and that was pretty expensive. So far the Tesla's been just purchase price, my home electricity rate (except for $50 ish of supercharging), and costs for a second set of tires at 30k miles. Used cars do decreases costs, but if buying new the model 3 often wins comparisons on cost to own against Toyota Camry and Honda Accords.

bradlys 4y ago
TCO is complicated though. If you start including other scenarios like when there is something wrong with your Tesla - you could be waiting 3+ months for the parts for your car to be fixed and it might not be useable during that time. This isn’t the same for most others.
- sliken 4y ago
  Agreed, trick is to account for the media's tendency to skew the facts. For instance it seems to be approximately 100x more likely that a Tesla that catches on fire make the news than a gas car. You could easily conclude Tesla's catch on fire more than gas cars and the published statistics confirm the Tesla's are radically less likely to catch fire. I've know quite a few Tesla owners (3 on my street), joined a Tesla slack channel for my org with dozens of users, visit various Telsa forums, and I can't say I've heard the 3+ month story from any of them. I did see it pop up on the news, but not at all sure that it's more common than other vendors. It does seem like Tesla is doing generally better than the competition in not halting production because of parts shortages.
  - frumper 4y ago
    I'll add a nice benefit I had with Tesla. I had a non-emergency warranty issue with the drivers side window and a scheduled a tech to come to my house and fix it.