The only thing missing from your post is this! http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/18/Bayes%27_Theorem_MMB_01.jpg/800px-Bayes%27_Theorem_MMB_

The only thing missing from your post is this! http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/18/Bayes%27_Theorem_MMB_01.jpg/800px-Bayes%27_Theorem_MMB_01.jpg http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/1/18/Bay... I must admit, it's been a couple of years since I've glanced at Bayes' theorem but this was an interesting refresher.