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Yes, fiscal factors and excess labor supply will keep inflation constrained. But to say higher interest rates lead to higher inflation is simply wrong as eviden
by adam_arthur 4y ago
Yes, fiscal factors and excess labor supply will keep inflation constrained. But to say higher interest rates lead to higher inflation is simply wrong as evidenced by a huge wealth of history/data.
Every country that has tried to combat inflation with lower rates has led to an inflationary spiral.
In a perfect world inflation would be controlled primarily via fiscal policy, but this is non-viable in the US political system. E.g. despite the Democrats being savaged in the polls due to inflation, they have yet to actually propose any package to help address inflation. Instead they just tried to convince people that BBB was inflation fighting, when in reality it's structured as a highly inflationary set of legislation.
The Fed can't be as targeted as fiscal policy can, so their mechanism to combat inflation naturally leads to recessions. Fiscal could be much more targeted, e.g. temporary taxes on discretionary goods etc.
It just so happens to be that sensible policy to curb inflation would also be highly unpopular to most