3 ms·
so "1% in next 1000"? No, I still don't get you, I mean that figure's blatant nonsense, it would just about have guaranteed a hit in the past million years (0.9
by zasdffaa 4y ago
so "1% in next 1000"? No, I still don't get you, I mean that figure's blatant nonsense, it would just about have guaranteed a hit in the past million years (0.99 ^ 1,000 = chance of not being hit ~= 4.3E-5).
from wiki "a comet of sufficient size to cause human extinction could impact the Earth, though the annual probability may be less than 10 ^ −8"
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophe_scenarios#Asteroid_impact https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Global_catastrophe_scenarios#A...
- whimsicalism 4y agoYou're absolutely right - a total brain fart, I was thinking of the risk of an Aphophis style collision [0], but this would not be existential at all. [0]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/99942_Apophis
- zasdffaa 4y agoIt happens, no worries!