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I am not entirely convinced WFH will stay the norm either. Certainly more normal, but I think the HN crowd might be uniquely positioned to exploit the situation

by ehnto 4y ago

I am not entirely convinced WFH will stay the norm either. Certainly more normal, but I think the HN crowd might be uniquely positioned to exploit the situation. Your average office worker doesn't usually have the agency to push back on office policies at the best of times, and you already see plenty of pull back into the office. The other part of the equation is the more common hybrid arrangement. If you still have to come into the office twice a week you get a similar dynamic to traditional in-office work. I think we are currently underestimating the desire to get back to the status quo and overestimating our leverage long term. Right now is a very unique time, sure to have lasting impacts, but I don't think it will stay like this.

betwixthewires 4y ago
Covid is basically over and it is still like this. It will probably stay more like this than it will revert. Global paradigm shifts don't usually revert. The less number of days workers go into the office, the less companies can justify renting the space and paying for the supplies. I think companies will begin to either go 100% remote except for on location workers that have to be there such as data center people, and others will try to go 100% back to office, and the latter will lose because the economic incentives are stacked against them. Increased cost, including a premium on talent willing to commute, make companies that do this less competitive. Unless you believe the water cooler has some property that boosts productivity significantly, in which case you're right. But I doubt it.
- babyshake 4y ago
  I wonder sometimes if the future of office work is something like a Star Trek Holodeck. Most people won't have one at home and will commute to a local remote work office used by people working for various employers.
- ehnto 4y ago
  I don't know where you live but covid is not over here.
  - Broken_Hippo 4y ago
    Not here, either: Folks are still getting it and folks are still dying from it. We simply don't have as many restrictions right now - though we are getting those again. Yesterday, some places in California are mandating masks again and I still have to prove I'm Covid-free to visit family in the US, and it doesn't matter than I'm a citizen.
    - paintman252 4y ago
      >Not here, either: Folks are still getting it and folks are still dying from it. If that's how you measure it, then covid will NEVER be over (People are still dying from flu every year) Pandemic is over. COVID19 is never leaving us.
  - spookthesunset 4y ago
    It will never be over. We just have to live with it and move on with our lives.
    - ehnto 4y ago
      And I shall, but it turns out my reality isn't the only reality.
  - betwixthewires 4y ago
    So the disease isn't over. And I hate to break it to you, in case it isn't obvious by now, it never will be. But the panic and response are over, the public has accepted it as a part of the world now, the world is just the world and life is just life again.
    - ehnto 4y ago
      I am well aware of the long term outlook of it all. I am fully vaxed, living life as I always used to, and I am all for returning to normal now that we have done all we can with vaccinations. But society globally is still changing and being impacted very seriously by the pandemic and will be for years yet. Keep in mind that both places, people and policies change state to state, country to country. You are talking like your experience is the only possible one. Where I live is seeing the most deaths it had the entire pandemic, we have still removed all restrictions but that doesn't stop people changing their behavior. Some places are still having lockdowns. Some borders remain shut. You get the idea.
- ehnto 4y ago
  I actually worked for a company pre-pandemic that had this epiphany and almost went fully remote just based on cost. The reason they didn't was because there were people who couldn't work from home for family reasons and some who didn't want to. We may find that being able to work remotely becomes a commodity the employee can offer the employer. As it's certainly still true that working from home doesn't fit everyone and we still haven't solved that I don't think. Renters can't build on an office they don't have for one example, and I don't think it's reasonable to expect an employee to work from their living room. But maybe co-working spaces will become more popular for the edge cases.
  - betwixthewires 4y ago
    I think co working spaces are going to become popular, but they'll likely get rolled into the hospitality industry. I doubt you'll see pay by the month office spaces, what's probably more likely is bring your own laptop cyber cafe style settings that provide food or drinks. When the "can you work from home" question gets a high enough incidence of "yes" answers, you'll see diminishing returns on renting office spaces. People that can't answer "yes" to that question will be priced out of the market.
regularfry 4y ago
One factor I don't see brought up often: many organisations can't go back now. They've hired too many people to fit.
dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago
The issue isn't so much work from home, which is not the ideal working arrangement for all, it's the commute to a central location. What has happened is people have realised the essential stupidity of it. The future will be much more mixed and more sensible. Some people will work from home and some people will work in offices, but those offices will be much closer to where people live and people who need to work together will tend to live close by, or at least have the opportunity to. Essentially we'll see a lot more smaller offices in the suburbs. You couldn't design a worse system of everyone having to commute to a central location, with infrastructure that is always overloaded at rush hour and underused the rest of the time. The key to that arrangement surviving has been that the impact is all on workers and the convenience payoff has been for employers. The pandemic opened people's eyes and they're not going back.
- ehnto 4y ago
  I hope you are right, but I think America has hamstrung itself already with it's historically terrible zoning bylaws. Rather than end up with office parks again, to enable this type of arrangemen you need better public transit and zoning that allows a bit of commercial intergration into suburbs, so that never going into the city is an attractive lifestyle choice and as workable as it can be. I live in a suburban desert, and if I had to work at a sattelite near here, I wouldn't be unable to do a lot of things I currently do during the week because it just isn't here.
mikro2nd 4y ago
Wearing my Tinfoil Hat: I see a looming, hypnotically-self-induced recession, manufactured precisely so that workers (incl. those who tend to hang on HN) feel more insecure and thus feel less empowered to say "No" to back-to-the-office mandates, thereby rescuing the rent-seeking classes from a Covid hangover. The timing is just too convenient... (Only half joking...)
- ehnto 4y ago
  A potential recession is brewing in the news and likely to take some of the wind out of employees feeling of agency and security. Maybe employers use that to pull people back into the office or maybe it turns out to be the perfect opportunity to ditch their rentals.
tellsor 4y ago
IMO the hybrid arrangement is because office leases tend to be long term commitments. Since it is already a sunk cost in a sense the hybrid model has value right now. I just can't see that the hybrid model is the long term equilibrium. The office either has a competitive advantage or it is a liability that can be trimmed in cost cutting measures. Long term, firms will either push the edge of the competitive advantage of the office back to everyone going to the office full time or cut the cost completely. Maybe it even depends on the department within the firm or across firms but the hybrid model is just nonsense to me. A cascade of punting a decision down the road so leadership doesn't have to really decide right now while we are all stuck in these pre-2020 commercial leases anyway.

by ehnto 4y ago

betwixthewires 4y ago

Covid is basically over and it is still like this. It will probably stay more like this than it will revert. Global paradigm shifts don't usually revert. The less number of days workers go into the office, the less companies can justify renting the space and paying for the supplies. I think companies will begin to either go 100% remote except for on location workers that have to be there such as data center people, and others will try to go 100% back to office, and the latter will lose because the economic incentives are stacked against them. Increased cost, including a premium on talent willing to commute, make companies that do this less competitive. Unless you believe the water cooler has some property that boosts productivity significantly, in which case you're right. But I doubt it.

babyshake 4y ago
I wonder sometimes if the future of office work is something like a Star Trek Holodeck. Most people won't have one at home and will commute to a local remote work office used by people working for various employers.
ehnto 4y ago
I don't know where you live but covid is not over here.
- Broken_Hippo 4y ago
  Not here, either: Folks are still getting it and folks are still dying from it. We simply don't have as many restrictions right now - though we are getting those again. Yesterday, some places in California are mandating masks again and I still have to prove I'm Covid-free to visit family in the US, and it doesn't matter than I'm a citizen.
  - paintman252 4y ago
    >Not here, either: Folks are still getting it and folks are still dying from it. If that's how you measure it, then covid will NEVER be over (People are still dying from flu every year) Pandemic is over. COVID19 is never leaving us.
- spookthesunset 4y ago
  It will never be over. We just have to live with it and move on with our lives.
  - ehnto 4y ago
    And I shall, but it turns out my reality isn't the only reality.
- betwixthewires 4y ago
  So the disease isn't over. And I hate to break it to you, in case it isn't obvious by now, it never will be. But the panic and response are over, the public has accepted it as a part of the world now, the world is just the world and life is just life again.
  - ehnto 4y ago
    I am well aware of the long term outlook of it all. I am fully vaxed, living life as I always used to, and I am all for returning to normal now that we have done all we can with vaccinations. But society globally is still changing and being impacted very seriously by the pandemic and will be for years yet. Keep in mind that both places, people and policies change state to state, country to country. You are talking like your experience is the only possible one. Where I live is seeing the most deaths it had the entire pandemic, we have still removed all restrictions but that doesn't stop people changing their behavior. Some places are still having lockdowns. Some borders remain shut. You get the idea.
ehnto 4y ago
I actually worked for a company pre-pandemic that had this epiphany and almost went fully remote just based on cost. The reason they didn't was because there were people who couldn't work from home for family reasons and some who didn't want to. We may find that being able to work remotely becomes a commodity the employee can offer the employer. As it's certainly still true that working from home doesn't fit everyone and we still haven't solved that I don't think. Renters can't build on an office they don't have for one example, and I don't think it's reasonable to expect an employee to work from their living room. But maybe co-working spaces will become more popular for the edge cases.
- betwixthewires 4y ago
  I think co working spaces are going to become popular, but they'll likely get rolled into the hospitality industry. I doubt you'll see pay by the month office spaces, what's probably more likely is bring your own laptop cyber cafe style settings that provide food or drinks. When the "can you work from home" question gets a high enough incidence of "yes" answers, you'll see diminishing returns on renting office spaces. People that can't answer "yes" to that question will be priced out of the market.

regularfry 4y ago

One factor I don't see brought up often: many organisations can't go back now. They've hired too many people to fit.

dkjaudyeqooe 4y ago

The issue isn't so much work from home, which is not the ideal working arrangement for all, it's the commute to a central location. What has happened is people have realised the essential stupidity of it. The future will be much more mixed and more sensible. Some people will work from home and some people will work in offices, but those offices will be much closer to where people live and people who need to work together will tend to live close by, or at least have the opportunity to. Essentially we'll see a lot more smaller offices in the suburbs. You couldn't design a worse system of everyone having to commute to a central location, with infrastructure that is always overloaded at rush hour and underused the rest of the time. The key to that arrangement surviving has been that the impact is all on workers and the convenience payoff has been for employers. The pandemic opened people's eyes and they're not going back.

ehnto 4y ago
I hope you are right, but I think America has hamstrung itself already with it's historically terrible zoning bylaws. Rather than end up with office parks again, to enable this type of arrangemen you need better public transit and zoning that allows a bit of commercial intergration into suburbs, so that never going into the city is an attractive lifestyle choice and as workable as it can be. I live in a suburban desert, and if I had to work at a sattelite near here, I wouldn't be unable to do a lot of things I currently do during the week because it just isn't here.

mikro2nd 4y ago

Wearing my Tinfoil Hat: I see a looming, hypnotically-self-induced recession, manufactured precisely so that workers (incl. those who tend to hang on HN) feel more insecure and thus feel less empowered to say "No" to back-to-the-office mandates, thereby rescuing the rent-seeking classes from a Covid hangover. The timing is just too convenient... (Only half joking...)

ehnto 4y ago
A potential recession is brewing in the news and likely to take some of the wind out of employees feeling of agency and security. Maybe employers use that to pull people back into the office or maybe it turns out to be the perfect opportunity to ditch their rentals.

tellsor 4y ago

IMO the hybrid arrangement is because office leases tend to be long term commitments. Since it is already a sunk cost in a sense the hybrid model has value right now. I just can't see that the hybrid model is the long term equilibrium. The office either has a competitive advantage or it is a liability that can be trimmed in cost cutting measures. Long term, firms will either push the edge of the competitive advantage of the office back to everyone going to the office full time or cut the cost completely. Maybe it even depends on the department within the firm or across firms but the hybrid model is just nonsense to me. A cascade of punting a decision down the road so leadership doesn't have to really decide right now while we are all stuck in these pre-2020 commercial leases anyway.