4 ms·

I’m a believer in reversion to the mean, and I think that’s what we will see with the office market and work from home. The technology to work from home existed

I’m a believer in reversion to the mean, and I think that’s what we will see with the office market and work from home. The technology to work from home existed before the pandemic. Why didn’t it take off before the pandemic if it works so well? We didn’t suddenly discover a new technology here. The use of that technology was precipitated by a transient force, and when that force is removed completely, things will return to the previous equilibrium. It will take years for the mentality to revert, however. That’s my take. Smart investors will acquire office properties during this time.

hackernewds 4y ago
respectfully disagree. knowledge, just like innovation cannot be reverted. it hadn't taken off before the pandemic since we were living under a purposefully driven illusion of the necessity of office work. just like food delivery, employers, just like workers now have the knowledge that wfh works. thus workers will always have the leverage of having competitive companies that know it does offering it.
lolinder 4y ago
> Why didn’t it take off before the pandemic if it works so well? We didn’t suddenly discover a new technology here. The use of that technology was precipitated by a transient force, and when that force is removed completely, things will return to the previous equilibrium. Not necessarily. It's entirely possible that working from home has always been better but that there was enough friction preventing a move in that direction that it didn't happen until covid forced it to. If that's the case, then we don't expect a reversion because the friction preventing the initial adoption is gone.
- phpisthebest 4y ago
  Well some of that is also regional, as the "forced" was a region by region, and job by job type of impact. For me, my employer only had about 3 mo's collectively from 2019 to 2022 where full time work from home was even an option, and zero months where it was required and the offices where shut down. I think there is a perception that all employers, everywhere were required to go full time work from home, that simply is not the reality
- lamontcg 4y ago
  A lot of companies/managers couldn't conceive of how to run a business remotely before the pandemic. There were a few that were doing it, but lots of people had beliefs that caused them to not be able to see how it was possible. Due to the pandemic everyone had to experience how to do it, so the business world got a management crash-course in it. That dropped a whole lot of mental barriers.
akhmatova 4y ago
That's not what "reversion to the mean" means. It is specifically a concept tied to repeated observations from a -random- process. That is, a process in which the values fluctuation over time (due to inherent randomness), but the -fundamentals- of the process (and its probability distribution) remain fixed -- along with its mean value. What they're saying here is that WFH has caused a seismic shift -- and hence, a drastic change in the fundamentals of the process. Their whole point is that we're seeing different valuations in 2022 than in early 2020, it's not due random fluctuation -- its because the fundamentals of the process have changed -- along with its mean. By definition, "reversion to the mean" only applies if ... the mean is fixed.
ehnto 4y ago
I am not entirely convinced WFH will stay the norm either. Certainly more normal, but I think the HN crowd might be uniquely positioned to exploit the situation. Your average office worker doesn't usually have the agency to push back on office policies at the best of times, and you already see plenty of pull back into the office. The other part of the equation is the more common hybrid arrangement. If you still have to come into the office twice a week you get a similar dynamic to traditional in-office work. I think we are currently underestimating the desire to get back to the status quo and overestimating our leverage long term. Right now is a very unique time, sure to have lasting impacts, but I don't think it will stay like this.
- betwixthewires 4y ago
  Covid is basically over and it is still like this. It will probably stay more like this than it will revert. Global paradigm shifts don't usually revert. The less number of days workers go into the office, the less companies can justify renting the space and paying for the supplies. I think companies will begin to either go 100% remote except for on location workers that have to be there such as data center people, and others will try to go 100% back to office, and the latter will lose because the economic incentives are stacked against them. Increased cost, including a premium on talent willing to commute, make companies that do this less competitive. Unless you believe the water cooler has some property that boosts productivity significantly, in which case you're right. But I doubt it.
  - babyshake 4y ago
    I wonder sometimes if the future of office work is something like a Star Trek Holodeck. Most people won't have one at home and will commute to a local remote work office used by people working for various employers.
  - ehnto 4y ago
    I don't know where you live but covid is not over here.
    - 4y ago
betwixthewires 4y ago
That's one take, it's not an unreasonable one. The internet was always going to enable people to perform information work remotely. It was all a matter of the process and how long it was going to take. Covid accelerated it, but it was already happening. There was no equilibrium before, just a lot of resistance and legacy social structure keeping the inertia going. With covid, that resistance was shown to be mostly substanceless, and now the inertia is preventing going back. In the end, there will be a premium paid on any work that requires someone to be at a specific location, and jobs that don't require it to be able to do the job itself won't pay that premium. That's my take. It's basically the opposite of yours. I would not invest in office properties.
seydor 4y ago
I think the opposite. Currently there is very little remote work ecosystem, but there is a huge office ecosystem. With remote being now a very real option for so many people, businesses that facilitate remote work will spring up (helping people relocate, coworking, help with foreign workers, payments etc). Traveling hasn't even resumed, and as the pandemic is removed and the war ends, people will have more options to reconsinder where they want to live. Remote is also naturally self-reinforcing because partial-remote degrades the value of offices.
jen20 4y ago
> Why didn’t it take off before the pandemic if it works so well? Because hopeless middle managers (toxin or cancer? [1]) like their empire to be outside their office doors in cubicles. Hopefully the past few years has started to root out these sociopaths and make their incapability clearer both up and down the management chain. [1]: https://www.slideshare.net/bcantrill/surge2013/2-Software_EngineeringMiddle_ManagementToxin_or_CancerSVP https://www.slideshare.net/bcantrill/surge2013/2-Software_En...
spookthesunset 4y ago
Totally agree. It will be a few years until things really shake out and we know the actual long term trends. Nothing fundamental changed between 2019 and today.

hackernewds 4y ago

respectfully disagree. knowledge, just like innovation cannot be reverted. it hadn't taken off before the pandemic since we were living under a purposefully driven illusion of the necessity of office work. just like food delivery, employers, just like workers now have the knowledge that wfh works. thus workers will always have the leverage of having competitive companies that know it does offering it.

lolinder 4y ago

> Why didn’t it take off before the pandemic if it works so well? We didn’t suddenly discover a new technology here. The use of that technology was precipitated by a transient force, and when that force is removed completely, things will return to the previous equilibrium. Not necessarily. It's entirely possible that working from home has always been better but that there was enough friction preventing a move in that direction that it didn't happen until covid forced it to. If that's the case, then we don't expect a reversion because the friction preventing the initial adoption is gone.

phpisthebest 4y ago
Well some of that is also regional, as the "forced" was a region by region, and job by job type of impact. For me, my employer only had about 3 mo's collectively from 2019 to 2022 where full time work from home was even an option, and zero months where it was required and the offices where shut down. I think there is a perception that all employers, everywhere were required to go full time work from home, that simply is not the reality
lamontcg 4y ago
A lot of companies/managers couldn't conceive of how to run a business remotely before the pandemic. There were a few that were doing it, but lots of people had beliefs that caused them to not be able to see how it was possible. Due to the pandemic everyone had to experience how to do it, so the business world got a management crash-course in it. That dropped a whole lot of mental barriers.

akhmatova 4y ago

That's not what "reversion to the mean" means. It is specifically a concept tied to repeated observations from a -random- process. That is, a process in which the values fluctuation over time (due to inherent randomness), but the -fundamentals- of the process (and its probability distribution) remain fixed -- along with its mean value. What they're saying here is that WFH has caused a seismic shift -- and hence, a drastic change in the fundamentals of the process. Their whole point is that we're seeing different valuations in 2022 than in early 2020, it's not due random fluctuation -- its because the fundamentals of the process have changed -- along with its mean. By definition, "reversion to the mean" only applies if ... the mean is fixed.

ehnto 4y ago

I am not entirely convinced WFH will stay the norm either. Certainly more normal, but I think the HN crowd might be uniquely positioned to exploit the situation. Your average office worker doesn't usually have the agency to push back on office policies at the best of times, and you already see plenty of pull back into the office. The other part of the equation is the more common hybrid arrangement. If you still have to come into the office twice a week you get a similar dynamic to traditional in-office work. I think we are currently underestimating the desire to get back to the status quo and overestimating our leverage long term. Right now is a very unique time, sure to have lasting impacts, but I don't think it will stay like this.

betwixthewires 4y ago
Covid is basically over and it is still like this. It will probably stay more like this than it will revert. Global paradigm shifts don't usually revert. The less number of days workers go into the office, the less companies can justify renting the space and paying for the supplies. I think companies will begin to either go 100% remote except for on location workers that have to be there such as data center people, and others will try to go 100% back to office, and the latter will lose because the economic incentives are stacked against them. Increased cost, including a premium on talent willing to commute, make companies that do this less competitive. Unless you believe the water cooler has some property that boosts productivity significantly, in which case you're right. But I doubt it.
- babyshake 4y ago
  I wonder sometimes if the future of office work is something like a Star Trek Holodeck. Most people won't have one at home and will commute to a local remote work office used by people working for various employers.
- ehnto 4y ago
  I don't know where you live but covid is not over here.
  - 4y ago

betwixthewires 4y ago

That's one take, it's not an unreasonable one. The internet was always going to enable people to perform information work remotely. It was all a matter of the process and how long it was going to take. Covid accelerated it, but it was already happening. There was no equilibrium before, just a lot of resistance and legacy social structure keeping the inertia going. With covid, that resistance was shown to be mostly substanceless, and now the inertia is preventing going back. In the end, there will be a premium paid on any work that requires someone to be at a specific location, and jobs that don't require it to be able to do the job itself won't pay that premium. That's my take. It's basically the opposite of yours. I would not invest in office properties.

seydor 4y ago

I think the opposite. Currently there is very little remote work ecosystem, but there is a huge office ecosystem. With remote being now a very real option for so many people, businesses that facilitate remote work will spring up (helping people relocate, coworking, help with foreign workers, payments etc). Traveling hasn't even resumed, and as the pandemic is removed and the war ends, people will have more options to reconsinder where they want to live. Remote is also naturally self-reinforcing because partial-remote degrades the value of offices.

jen20 4y ago

> Why didn’t it take off before the pandemic if it works so well? Because hopeless middle managers (toxin or cancer? [1]) like their empire to be outside their office doors in cubicles. Hopefully the past few years has started to root out these sociopaths and make their incapability clearer both up and down the management chain. [1]: https://www.slideshare.net/bcantrill/surge2013/2-Software_EngineeringMiddle_ManagementToxin_or_CancerSVP https://www.slideshare.net/bcantrill/surge2013/2-Software_En...

spookthesunset 4y ago

Totally agree. It will be a few years until things really shake out and we know the actual long term trends. Nothing fundamental changed between 2019 and today.