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ISW has shifted to trash talking the Russian military effort because news from the front isn't fun anymore. I enjoy the news of Russian dysfunction as much as a

ISW has shifted to trash talking the Russian military effort because news from the front isn't fun anymore. I enjoy the news of Russian dysfunction as much as any Ukraine ally, but if you read below the fold it's exactly as I said. I am hopeful that Ukraine can grind some asymmetric attrition out of Severodonetsk. Maybe that is why we are beginning to see some good news out of the city. Maybe they hope to turn it into Stalingrad with Russia on the other side this time. I think Ukraine is taking a beating from the currently superior Russian artillery and I suspect that's why they can't help but slowly lose ground right now. They need neutralizing weapons (on the way but needs to be quicker and more) and they need to leverage their many tactical advantages in urban warfare. Ukraine has an amazing fighting force but there's only so much they can do while being pounded by long-range artillery on the flat terrain of the Donbas.

oneoff786 4y ago
I’m not convinced it’s so trivial just because it’s entertaining. These are Russian mil bloggers. The most pro Russian military needs you can get. Some of them are embedded with the troops. They have only recently started to be very critical of Russian military leadership. I think it reflects an inflection point. They’ve lost a lot of their officers. Their leadership is shit. Their units are disorganized, demoralized, and comprised of various half depleted units smushed together. Their logistics and intel are poor. I think its just a leading indicator of reduced fighting capacity.
- civilized 4y ago
  I hope they are seeing the whole picture clearly. Historically, Russia has demonstrated tremendous will to fight on in a degraded state. At the very least, at the end of this war, Putin must be persuaded that the cost of additional invasions is not worth the benefit. The West must arm Ukraine to the teeth and hope this is accomplished. I am certain he will try to take as much as he believes he can.
  - thriftwy 4y ago
    > Russia has demonstrated tremendous will to fight on in a degraded state. > Putin must be persuaded that the cost of additional invasions is not worth the benefit. The West must arm Ukraine to the teeth So your plan for success as follows: * Arm Ukraine to the teeth to fight Russia * Ukraine loses anyway at a great cost of its human life * Russia decides not to invade any more countries (success) * (bonus) Ukraine now has to return these hopeless war loans What's in it for Ukraine compared to just surrendering on day 3?
    - civilized 4y ago
      Good question. Maybe you should ask the Ukrainians why they didn't surrender on day 3. In fact, why didn't they welcome Russia as liberators? Did the Evil West whisper in their collective ears, like Rasputin, casting a spell on them to become our puppets? Or... could it simply be that Ukrainians hate the Russian invader as passionately as Russians still hate the Nazis today? Passionately and rightly, for invading their country and slaughtering millions of their people? Putin, the delusional fool, has no idea the depth his evil imprint has forever laid upon Ukrainian-Russian relations. He thought that shared history, religion, etc. would excuse the oceans of blood, an entire nation's livelihood disrupted and destroyed. He thought he could brutalize Europeans into submission. He was wrong, and now there is no turning back.
      - thriftwy 4y ago
        Can it simply be that eventually Ukrainians understand that the deal was always like I have described it in the previous post? Ukraine is very diverse country. It still considers citizens of Crimea and LDNR of its own, but I'm pretty sure these are now hating Ukraine passionately. Especially after many, many acts of Ukraine bombing Donetsk in absense of any sensible military goal. If the boys and girls from Kievan twitter hate Russia with passion, that is survivable.
        civilized 4y ago
        > Can it simply be that eventually Ukrainians understand that the deal was always like I have described it in the previous post? That still leaves my same question. If their understanding is the same as yours, why did they not surrender on day 3 as you said they should? Could it be that Putin has activated their national identity by threatening them into collective self-defense? And now that they have held their own despite being brutalized, do you think they will forget their achievements and hand over their lives to their attackers? Perhaps they have gained more self-respect than that. Perhaps they see themselves as more than just collateral damage in some great power struggle. > Ukraine is very diverse country. It still considers citizens of Crimea and LDNR of its own, but I'm pretty sure these are now hating Ukraine passionately. Especially after many, many acts of Ukraine bombing Donetsk in absense of any sensible military goal. Unfortunately there is no one to tell us what Donbas Ukrainians think, free of propaganda. But it will become clear soon enough. For now all I have is this poll [1], conducted in January, which says a plurality of Donbas residents prefer to be part of Ukraine. I can't imagine that sentiment towards Russia has warmed since Putin's horrific invasion. In fact, polls say it's overwhelmingly negative [2,3], which is hardly surprising given Putin has destroyed these people's lives for no reason. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/15/russia-ukraine-donbas-donetsk-luhansk-public-opinion/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/15/russia-uk... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60938544 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60938544 [3] https://www.jpost.com/international/article-707900 https://www.jpost.com/international/article-707900
- yakak 4y ago
  Yeah, I don't really think they have another 100 days in them without internal crisis far worse than what they feared in an early retreat. The Ukraine is wise to stay away from the table and slowly grow stronger. I can't imagine a workable plan for Ukraine to keep Russian empire dreams from threatening it again in short order aside from keeping Russia politically trapped in military conflict until exhaustion. Hopefully enough of the west will support them even if they never go back to the table.

oneoff786 4y ago

I’m not convinced it’s so trivial just because it’s entertaining. These are Russian mil bloggers. The most pro Russian military needs you can get. Some of them are embedded with the troops. They have only recently started to be very critical of Russian military leadership. I think it reflects an inflection point. They’ve lost a lot of their officers. Their leadership is shit. Their units are disorganized, demoralized, and comprised of various half depleted units smushed together. Their logistics and intel are poor. I think its just a leading indicator of reduced fighting capacity.

civilized 4y ago
I hope they are seeing the whole picture clearly. Historically, Russia has demonstrated tremendous will to fight on in a degraded state. At the very least, at the end of this war, Putin must be persuaded that the cost of additional invasions is not worth the benefit. The West must arm Ukraine to the teeth and hope this is accomplished. I am certain he will try to take as much as he believes he can.
- thriftwy 4y ago
  > Russia has demonstrated tremendous will to fight on in a degraded state. > Putin must be persuaded that the cost of additional invasions is not worth the benefit. The West must arm Ukraine to the teeth So your plan for success as follows: * Arm Ukraine to the teeth to fight Russia * Ukraine loses anyway at a great cost of its human life * Russia decides not to invade any more countries (success) * (bonus) Ukraine now has to return these hopeless war loans What's in it for Ukraine compared to just surrendering on day 3?
  - civilized 4y ago
    Good question. Maybe you should ask the Ukrainians why they didn't surrender on day 3. In fact, why didn't they welcome Russia as liberators? Did the Evil West whisper in their collective ears, like Rasputin, casting a spell on them to become our puppets? Or... could it simply be that Ukrainians hate the Russian invader as passionately as Russians still hate the Nazis today? Passionately and rightly, for invading their country and slaughtering millions of their people? Putin, the delusional fool, has no idea the depth his evil imprint has forever laid upon Ukrainian-Russian relations. He thought that shared history, religion, etc. would excuse the oceans of blood, an entire nation's livelihood disrupted and destroyed. He thought he could brutalize Europeans into submission. He was wrong, and now there is no turning back.
    - thriftwy 4y ago
      Can it simply be that eventually Ukrainians understand that the deal was always like I have described it in the previous post? Ukraine is very diverse country. It still considers citizens of Crimea and LDNR of its own, but I'm pretty sure these are now hating Ukraine passionately. Especially after many, many acts of Ukraine bombing Donetsk in absense of any sensible military goal. If the boys and girls from Kievan twitter hate Russia with passion, that is survivable.
      - civilized 4y ago
        > Can it simply be that eventually Ukrainians understand that the deal was always like I have described it in the previous post? That still leaves my same question. If their understanding is the same as yours, why did they not surrender on day 3 as you said they should? Could it be that Putin has activated their national identity by threatening them into collective self-defense? And now that they have held their own despite being brutalized, do you think they will forget their achievements and hand over their lives to their attackers? Perhaps they have gained more self-respect than that. Perhaps they see themselves as more than just collateral damage in some great power struggle. > Ukraine is very diverse country. It still considers citizens of Crimea and LDNR of its own, but I'm pretty sure these are now hating Ukraine passionately. Especially after many, many acts of Ukraine bombing Donetsk in absense of any sensible military goal. Unfortunately there is no one to tell us what Donbas Ukrainians think, free of propaganda. But it will become clear soon enough. For now all I have is this poll [1], conducted in January, which says a plurality of Donbas residents prefer to be part of Ukraine. I can't imagine that sentiment towards Russia has warmed since Putin's horrific invasion. In fact, polls say it's overwhelmingly negative [2,3], which is hardly surprising given Putin has destroyed these people's lives for no reason. [1] https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/15/russia-ukraine-donbas-donetsk-luhansk-public-opinion/ https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2022/04/15/russia-uk... [2] https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60938544 https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60938544 [3] https://www.jpost.com/international/article-707900 https://www.jpost.com/international/article-707900
yakak 4y ago
Yeah, I don't really think they have another 100 days in them without internal crisis far worse than what they feared in an early retreat. The Ukraine is wise to stay away from the table and slowly grow stronger. I can't imagine a workable plan for Ukraine to keep Russian empire dreams from threatening it again in short order aside from keeping Russia politically trapped in military conflict until exhaustion. Hopefully enough of the west will support them even if they never go back to the table.