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> Ukraine is already struggling to halt the slow grinding Russian progress in the east. This war was supposed to last 3 days. It is now day 101. Russia was sup

> Ukraine is already struggling to halt the slow grinding Russian progress in the east. This war was supposed to last 3 days. It is now day 101. Russia was supposed to take kyiv. It was entirely pushed back. It then tried to take Kharkiv, and was entirely pushed back. It’s now trying to settle for severodonestk in the east and it’s not clear that they will take it despite a very large manpower advantage in that area. Meanwhile their control of southern areas like Kherson is beginning to falter. Already struggling to halt progress in the east seems like a wildly misleading claim. Significant advances have been completely repelled.

civilized 4y ago
I have been reading ISW's daily updates since the war started. The shift from enthusiasm for Ukraine's victories to frustration in the east has been palpable. Ukraine is fighting at its limit and Russia still inches forward. Opportunistic counteroffensives near Kherson have not yet broken out. I want Ukraine to win quickly and decisively and every dollar we spend sending them stuff is well-spent. But I think it's going to be a slog. OTOH Ukraine will not back down and I think the Western backing is probably pretty deliberate, serious, and long-term. We want this to be Russia's second Afghanistan. But Afghanistan is about what I'm expecting. Grimly, I am somewhat satisfied that Europeans are being reminded of the fury they must summon when an enemy arrives aiming to crush them like ants.
- oneoff786 4y ago
  I’m surprised you can read the ISW updates and have that be your take on the situation. My primary takeaways from them recently: * Russia is having serious problems getting troops * their execution is terrible and all of their successes are very costly. Even Russian mil bloggers are complaining about this. * the push for the east is coming at great cost but provides basically no strategic benefit Recent news as of today has suggested significant Ukrainian success in severodonestk but let’s see. I expect the city will fall eventually. If it doesn’t then… idk, I feel like Russia has all but lost the war.
  - civilized 4y ago
    ISW has shifted to trash talking the Russian military effort because news from the front isn't fun anymore. I enjoy the news of Russian dysfunction as much as any Ukraine ally, but if you read below the fold it's exactly as I said. I am hopeful that Ukraine can grind some asymmetric attrition out of Severodonetsk. Maybe that is why we are beginning to see some good news out of the city. Maybe they hope to turn it into Stalingrad with Russia on the other side this time. I think Ukraine is taking a beating from the currently superior Russian artillery and I suspect that's why they can't help but slowly lose ground right now. They need neutralizing weapons (on the way but needs to be quicker and more) and they need to leverage their many tactical advantages in urban warfare. Ukraine has an amazing fighting force but there's only so much they can do while being pounded by long-range artillery on the flat terrain of the Donbas.
    - oneoff786 4y ago
      I’m not convinced it’s so trivial just because it’s entertaining. These are Russian mil bloggers. The most pro Russian military needs you can get. Some of them are embedded with the troops. They have only recently started to be very critical of Russian military leadership. I think it reflects an inflection point. They’ve lost a lot of their officers. Their leadership is shit. Their units are disorganized, demoralized, and comprised of various half depleted units smushed together. Their logistics and intel are poor. I think its just a leading indicator of reduced fighting capacity.
      - civilized 4y ago
        I hope they are seeing the whole picture clearly. Historically, Russia has demonstrated tremendous will to fight on in a degraded state. At the very least, at the end of this war, Putin must be persuaded that the cost of additional invasions is not worth the benefit. The West must arm Ukraine to the teeth and hope this is accomplished. I am certain he will try to take as much as he believes he can.
        thriftwy 4y ago

civilized 4y ago

I have been reading ISW's daily updates since the war started. The shift from enthusiasm for Ukraine's victories to frustration in the east has been palpable. Ukraine is fighting at its limit and Russia still inches forward. Opportunistic counteroffensives near Kherson have not yet broken out. I want Ukraine to win quickly and decisively and every dollar we spend sending them stuff is well-spent. But I think it's going to be a slog. OTOH Ukraine will not back down and I think the Western backing is probably pretty deliberate, serious, and long-term. We want this to be Russia's second Afghanistan. But Afghanistan is about what I'm expecting. Grimly, I am somewhat satisfied that Europeans are being reminded of the fury they must summon when an enemy arrives aiming to crush them like ants.

oneoff786 4y ago
I’m surprised you can read the ISW updates and have that be your take on the situation. My primary takeaways from them recently: * Russia is having serious problems getting troops * their execution is terrible and all of their successes are very costly. Even Russian mil bloggers are complaining about this. * the push for the east is coming at great cost but provides basically no strategic benefit Recent news as of today has suggested significant Ukrainian success in severodonestk but let’s see. I expect the city will fall eventually. If it doesn’t then… idk, I feel like Russia has all but lost the war.
- civilized 4y ago
  ISW has shifted to trash talking the Russian military effort because news from the front isn't fun anymore. I enjoy the news of Russian dysfunction as much as any Ukraine ally, but if you read below the fold it's exactly as I said. I am hopeful that Ukraine can grind some asymmetric attrition out of Severodonetsk. Maybe that is why we are beginning to see some good news out of the city. Maybe they hope to turn it into Stalingrad with Russia on the other side this time. I think Ukraine is taking a beating from the currently superior Russian artillery and I suspect that's why they can't help but slowly lose ground right now. They need neutralizing weapons (on the way but needs to be quicker and more) and they need to leverage their many tactical advantages in urban warfare. Ukraine has an amazing fighting force but there's only so much they can do while being pounded by long-range artillery on the flat terrain of the Donbas.
  - oneoff786 4y ago
    I’m not convinced it’s so trivial just because it’s entertaining. These are Russian mil bloggers. The most pro Russian military needs you can get. Some of them are embedded with the troops. They have only recently started to be very critical of Russian military leadership. I think it reflects an inflection point. They’ve lost a lot of their officers. Their leadership is shit. Their units are disorganized, demoralized, and comprised of various half depleted units smushed together. Their logistics and intel are poor. I think its just a leading indicator of reduced fighting capacity.
    - civilized 4y ago
      I hope they are seeing the whole picture clearly. Historically, Russia has demonstrated tremendous will to fight on in a degraded state. At the very least, at the end of this war, Putin must be persuaded that the cost of additional invasions is not worth the benefit. The West must arm Ukraine to the teeth and hope this is accomplished. I am certain he will try to take as much as he believes he can.
      - thriftwy 4y ago