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>Russia has failed to achieve most of its objectives in Ukraine because.... . The opening comment makes its seem like this is now all in the past. I think its

>Russia has failed to achieve most of its objectives in Ukraine because.... . The opening comment makes its seem like this is now all in the past. I think its a bit early to comment on how much Russia achieves here - this is very much WIP with a lot dependent on the solidarity in the West and the reaction of the populations to the cost of the war and the war effort as it drags on. It's fair to say though that Russia bungled the start and miscalculated the cost benefit of this war.

mercy_dude 4y ago
Yeah that opening line was a giveaway. I thought Ukraine’s own defence minister says Russia now controls 20% of Ukraine as little as a few days ago. What changed?
- oneoff786 4y ago
  It used to be a much higher percentage. They’ve abandoned the entire northern front.
civilized 4y ago
Yes. Ukraine is already struggling to halt the slow grinding Russian progress in the east. I don't see the conflict ending until Ukraine either retakes the lost territory (in months? years?) or loses Western support and becomes simply unable to carry on logistically.
- oneoff786 4y ago
  > Ukraine is already struggling to halt the slow grinding Russian progress in the east. This war was supposed to last 3 days. It is now day 101. Russia was supposed to take kyiv. It was entirely pushed back. It then tried to take Kharkiv, and was entirely pushed back. It’s now trying to settle for severodonestk in the east and it’s not clear that they will take it despite a very large manpower advantage in that area. Meanwhile their control of southern areas like Kherson is beginning to falter. Already struggling to halt progress in the east seems like a wildly misleading claim. Significant advances have been completely repelled.
  - civilized 4y ago
    I have been reading ISW's daily updates since the war started. The shift from enthusiasm for Ukraine's victories to frustration in the east has been palpable. Ukraine is fighting at its limit and Russia still inches forward. Opportunistic counteroffensives near Kherson have not yet broken out. I want Ukraine to win quickly and decisively and every dollar we spend sending them stuff is well-spent. But I think it's going to be a slog. OTOH Ukraine will not back down and I think the Western backing is probably pretty deliberate, serious, and long-term. We want this to be Russia's second Afghanistan. But Afghanistan is about what I'm expecting. Grimly, I am somewhat satisfied that Europeans are being reminded of the fury they must summon when an enemy arrives aiming to crush them like ants.
    - oneoff786 4y ago
      I’m surprised you can read the ISW updates and have that be your take on the situation. My primary takeaways from them recently: * Russia is having serious problems getting troops * their execution is terrible and all of their successes are very costly. Even Russian mil bloggers are complaining about this. * the push for the east is coming at great cost but provides basically no strategic benefit Recent news as of today has suggested significant Ukrainian success in severodonestk but let’s see. I expect the city will fall eventually. If it doesn’t then… idk, I feel like Russia has all but lost the war.
      - civilized 4y ago
        ISW has shifted to trash talking the Russian military effort because news from the front isn't fun anymore. I enjoy the news of Russian dysfunction as much as any Ukraine ally, but if you read below the fold it's exactly as I said. I am hopeful that Ukraine can grind some asymmetric attrition out of Severodonetsk. Maybe that is why we are beginning to see some good news out of the city. Maybe they hope to turn it into Stalingrad with Russia on the other side this time. I think Ukraine is taking a beating from the currently superior Russian artillery and I suspect that's why they can't help but slowly lose ground right now. They need neutralizing weapons (on the way but needs to be quicker and more) and they need to leverage their many tactical advantages in urban warfare. Ukraine has an amazing fighting force but there's only so much they can do while being pounded by long-range artillery on the flat terrain of the Donbas.
orbifold 4y ago
A drawn out conflict favors Russia, even though they surely preferred to solve this with a decapitating strike within a week. Ukraine’s economy has collapsed, Russia’s economy has suffered but not as much, the sanctions on oil actually will likely result in higher profits. Last time I checked Russia had a 10/1 advantage in heavy artillery, has not mobilized its army but is fighting with 1/5 of its available peacetime forces, whereas Ukraine is fully mobilized and has suffered massive casualties among its most capable forces.
- throwyawayyyy 4y ago
  > A drawn out conflict favors Russia Probably true. But there's no situation in which Russia ends up richer for having gone to war than had they not bothered in the first place. Which is to say, everyone has lost already. It's a tragedy for all parties -- and it's Putin's fault.
  - orbifold 4y ago
    If they manage to capture the coast including Odessa and the Donbass, they will have recovered a large chunk of the Russian speaking population lost after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and add a lot of industrial capacity. Long term this would benefit Russia, Ukraine would be reduced to a rump state. But yeah the pre-2014 situation would be vastly better for all sides involved. Ukraine could have taken the Belarussian or Khazak trajectory.
    - oneoff786 4y ago
      They are nowhere near taking Odessa. It is extremely unlikely that they will achieve that in the foreseeable future.
      - Teever 4y ago
        People don't seem to realize that Odessa has 2500km of catacombs.[0] Taking Mariupol will seem like a walk in the park compared to trying to take Odessa. There's no way that Odessa falls to the Russians. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa_Catacombs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa_Catacombs
KVFinn 4y ago
>>Russia has failed to achieve most of its objectives in Ukraine because... >The opening comment makes its seem like this is now all in the past. I think its a bit early to comment on how much Russia achieves here - this is very much WIP with a lot dependent on the solidarity in the West and the reaction of the populations to the cost of the war and the war effort as it drags on. Essentially, the manner in which Russia will have to prosecute to the military side of the war to 'win' their military objectives, will make the political objectives that were the reason for the war in the first place, unachievable. In the first few days of the war it was possible to imagine Russia achieving those political objectives. Ukraine might have given up the capital immediately. Huge parts of the country might have decided they preferred to join Russia. Europe might have decided not to respond. But it soon became apparent that those assumptions were wildly off. Any victory now will, at best, include absolutely massive quantities of troops perpetually kept in Ukraine at an incredible cost of resources and lives over future years.
- type0 4y ago
  > Any victory now will, at best, include absolutely massive quantities of troops perpetually kept in Ukraine at an incredible cost of resources and lives over future years. They want the land, not the ukrainian people. Putin will gladly send them to Siberia.
  - attentive 4y ago
    Russia population is declining. That's why they kidnap Ukrainian children by hundreds thousands. They also mobilize all men in occupied territories. Virtually all men in DNR/LNR are mobilized and sent as a 2d class cannon fodder in front of russian forces. Same seems to be in plans in occupied Herson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Adding 40mill Ukrainians to "russia" and then use them to attack other countries is the name of the game.
    - rasz 4y ago
      For context because due to the high number people seem to discount this as western war propaganda, so straight from horses mouth: https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1524843197951795200 https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1524843197951795200 "Russia's Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova: More than 190,000 children had arrived in Russia from Donbass by early May, including about 1,200 coming from orphanages in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics." Russians themselves are bragging about kidnapping 190K children.
oneoff786 4y ago
Russia made its objectives very clear, and then changed them when they failed to manifest. It’s very fair to say they failed to achieve their goals. They’re now shooting for much milder goals.

mercy_dude 4y ago

Yeah that opening line was a giveaway. I thought Ukraine’s own defence minister says Russia now controls 20% of Ukraine as little as a few days ago. What changed?

oneoff786 4y ago
It used to be a much higher percentage. They’ve abandoned the entire northern front.

civilized 4y ago

Yes. Ukraine is already struggling to halt the slow grinding Russian progress in the east. I don't see the conflict ending until Ukraine either retakes the lost territory (in months? years?) or loses Western support and becomes simply unable to carry on logistically.

oneoff786 4y ago
> Ukraine is already struggling to halt the slow grinding Russian progress in the east. This war was supposed to last 3 days. It is now day 101. Russia was supposed to take kyiv. It was entirely pushed back. It then tried to take Kharkiv, and was entirely pushed back. It’s now trying to settle for severodonestk in the east and it’s not clear that they will take it despite a very large manpower advantage in that area. Meanwhile their control of southern areas like Kherson is beginning to falter. Already struggling to halt progress in the east seems like a wildly misleading claim. Significant advances have been completely repelled.
- civilized 4y ago
  I have been reading ISW's daily updates since the war started. The shift from enthusiasm for Ukraine's victories to frustration in the east has been palpable. Ukraine is fighting at its limit and Russia still inches forward. Opportunistic counteroffensives near Kherson have not yet broken out. I want Ukraine to win quickly and decisively and every dollar we spend sending them stuff is well-spent. But I think it's going to be a slog. OTOH Ukraine will not back down and I think the Western backing is probably pretty deliberate, serious, and long-term. We want this to be Russia's second Afghanistan. But Afghanistan is about what I'm expecting. Grimly, I am somewhat satisfied that Europeans are being reminded of the fury they must summon when an enemy arrives aiming to crush them like ants.
  - oneoff786 4y ago
    I’m surprised you can read the ISW updates and have that be your take on the situation. My primary takeaways from them recently: * Russia is having serious problems getting troops * their execution is terrible and all of their successes are very costly. Even Russian mil bloggers are complaining about this. * the push for the east is coming at great cost but provides basically no strategic benefit Recent news as of today has suggested significant Ukrainian success in severodonestk but let’s see. I expect the city will fall eventually. If it doesn’t then… idk, I feel like Russia has all but lost the war.
    - civilized 4y ago
      ISW has shifted to trash talking the Russian military effort because news from the front isn't fun anymore. I enjoy the news of Russian dysfunction as much as any Ukraine ally, but if you read below the fold it's exactly as I said. I am hopeful that Ukraine can grind some asymmetric attrition out of Severodonetsk. Maybe that is why we are beginning to see some good news out of the city. Maybe they hope to turn it into Stalingrad with Russia on the other side this time. I think Ukraine is taking a beating from the currently superior Russian artillery and I suspect that's why they can't help but slowly lose ground right now. They need neutralizing weapons (on the way but needs to be quicker and more) and they need to leverage their many tactical advantages in urban warfare. Ukraine has an amazing fighting force but there's only so much they can do while being pounded by long-range artillery on the flat terrain of the Donbas.

orbifold 4y ago

A drawn out conflict favors Russia, even though they surely preferred to solve this with a decapitating strike within a week. Ukraine’s economy has collapsed, Russia’s economy has suffered but not as much, the sanctions on oil actually will likely result in higher profits. Last time I checked Russia had a 10/1 advantage in heavy artillery, has not mobilized its army but is fighting with 1/5 of its available peacetime forces, whereas Ukraine is fully mobilized and has suffered massive casualties among its most capable forces.

throwyawayyyy 4y ago
> A drawn out conflict favors Russia Probably true. But there's no situation in which Russia ends up richer for having gone to war than had they not bothered in the first place. Which is to say, everyone has lost already. It's a tragedy for all parties -- and it's Putin's fault.
- orbifold 4y ago
  If they manage to capture the coast including Odessa and the Donbass, they will have recovered a large chunk of the Russian speaking population lost after the dissolution of the Soviet Union and add a lot of industrial capacity. Long term this would benefit Russia, Ukraine would be reduced to a rump state. But yeah the pre-2014 situation would be vastly better for all sides involved. Ukraine could have taken the Belarussian or Khazak trajectory.
  - oneoff786 4y ago
    They are nowhere near taking Odessa. It is extremely unlikely that they will achieve that in the foreseeable future.
    - Teever 4y ago
      People don't seem to realize that Odessa has 2500km of catacombs.[0] Taking Mariupol will seem like a walk in the park compared to trying to take Odessa. There's no way that Odessa falls to the Russians. [0] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa_Catacombs https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Odessa_Catacombs

KVFinn 4y ago

>>Russia has failed to achieve most of its objectives in Ukraine because... >The opening comment makes its seem like this is now all in the past. I think its a bit early to comment on how much Russia achieves here - this is very much WIP with a lot dependent on the solidarity in the West and the reaction of the populations to the cost of the war and the war effort as it drags on. Essentially, the manner in which Russia will have to prosecute to the military side of the war to 'win' their military objectives, will make the political objectives that were the reason for the war in the first place, unachievable. In the first few days of the war it was possible to imagine Russia achieving those political objectives. Ukraine might have given up the capital immediately. Huge parts of the country might have decided they preferred to join Russia. Europe might have decided not to respond. But it soon became apparent that those assumptions were wildly off. Any victory now will, at best, include absolutely massive quantities of troops perpetually kept in Ukraine at an incredible cost of resources and lives over future years.

type0 4y ago
> Any victory now will, at best, include absolutely massive quantities of troops perpetually kept in Ukraine at an incredible cost of resources and lives over future years. They want the land, not the ukrainian people. Putin will gladly send them to Siberia.
- attentive 4y ago
  Russia population is declining. That's why they kidnap Ukrainian children by hundreds thousands. They also mobilize all men in occupied territories. Virtually all men in DNR/LNR are mobilized and sent as a 2d class cannon fodder in front of russian forces. Same seems to be in plans in occupied Herson and Zaporizhzhia regions. Adding 40mill Ukrainians to "russia" and then use them to attack other countries is the name of the game.
  - rasz 4y ago
    For context because due to the high number people seem to discount this as western war propaganda, so straight from horses mouth: https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1524843197951795200 https://twitter.com/mfa_russia/status/1524843197951795200 "Russia's Presidential Commissioner for Children’s Rights Maria Lvova-Belova: More than 190,000 children had arrived in Russia from Donbass by early May, including about 1,200 coming from orphanages in the Donetsk and Lugansk People’s Republics." Russians themselves are bragging about kidnapping 190K children.

oneoff786 4y ago

Russia made its objectives very clear, and then changed them when they failed to manifest. It’s very fair to say they failed to achieve their goals. They’re now shooting for much milder goals.