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There's no pipelines from Russia to India and China. Russia has to ship the oil. That's way more expensive, and there's just no infrastructure for that right no

There's no pipelines from Russia to India and China. Russia has to ship the oil. That's way more expensive, and there's just no infrastructure for that right now.

ajsnigrutin 4y ago
How many piplines do we (EU) have from other countries that will provide us oil, after we totally stop importing it from russia? Won't the price hike hurt us too, possible even more than russia?
- ben_w 4y ago
  You need to be extremely careful with what you mean by “hurt” when you want to compare the economies of EU and Russia. The EU has about 10x the nominal GDP of Russia. Is a 10% contraction of the EU for one year equivalent to the entire Russian population reverting to subsistence farming for a year?
  - ajsnigrutin 4y ago
    But they're not subsistence farming, they're doing the stuff they did before, export their stuff to countries like india and china, and buying stuff from them too. Replacing their iphone with a Xiaomi/Huawei phone will hurt them a lot less, than possible power outages and no heat will hurt us. If we read between the lines, we're also at the brink of a massive food crisis (wheat and fertilizers + of course fuel cost) that russians have enough of.
    - ben_w 4y ago
      I’m talking hypothetically: The economic cost to the EU is also not 10%, but would you consider those two costs — hypothetical 10% EU recession and hypothetical Russia reduced to subsistence farming — to be equal? Also: I should’ve thought of this before, but cost to each party isn’t the right metric — it’s what does the EU gain at what cost to the EU (and likewise for each party), so the question is probably more like: Q1) does this situation look like a warmongering power trying to rebuilding a lost empire? If so, what’s the cost of sitting back and doing nothing? A1) let’s say p=0.1, €3T/year Q2) [insert more hypotheticals, probability estimates, and costs here, a real analysis wouldn’t fit in a comment] Finally: multiply the chances by the costs, add them all up, that’s what it makes sense for the EU pay. > If we read between the lines, we're also at the brink of a massive food crisis We’re not even close to that, despite the breathless headlines and the fact the Russian forces interfered with a significant quantity of food production and are blockading the ports that would normally export it from Ukraine. Hell, even the UK isn’t that screwed and they’re short of farm hands to pick crops and vets to certify the abattoirs because of Brexit.
      - ajsnigrutin 4y ago
        Russia produces enough food, that we (=rest of europe) have problems if they don't export it and not vice-versa, they also have enough oil/gas, that again, we have problems, if they don't export it, they also have most of the raw materials available locally plus a lot of companies that produce everything needed for basic infrastructure. They're also friendly with countries like china and india for the rest of the things they need, and have gas to export/sell to them to be able to pay for all that stuff. I'm more afraid that Janez and Hans and Pierre will have to pick up crops to survive, and not Boris. > Hell, even the UK isn’t that screwed and they’re short of farm hands to pick crops and vets to certify the abattoirs because of Brexit. And it's funny, because this is a purely economical issue... pay more and you'll get workers to do the work for you. You cannot pay romanian paychecks to british workers.
        ben_w 4y ago
        You’re still missing the point of “hypothetical”. It’s not a word I’d gotten around to learning the German for before writing this comment despite moving to Berlin in 2018, so as you’ve indicated you’re from the Balkans, I’m wondering if you know what I mean by it? I’m not asking you to judge the likelihood of two things, nor their consequences, I’m asking you to tell me if you think they are equivalent. Does A=B, where A is a 10% recession, etc. > Russia produces enough food, that we (=rest of europe) have problems if they don't export False. Russia exported €1.8 billion agricultural products to the EU last year: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/729294/EPRS_ATA(2022)729294_EN.pdf https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/7292... The EU agriculture sector is about 1.5% of its $US 17,000 billion nominal GDP, i.e. $US 255 billion nominal, which at current exchange rates is €237 billion, or to put it another way, what it gets from Russia is 0.75% by value of what it makes itself. I’m old enough to remember when the EU’s biggest problem was colossal over-production of food, and it’s agricultural policy being called a market-distorting subsidy. This is also backed up by EU countries having access to more food per person than Russia. Not that it matters because both are about 1000 kcal/day higher than actually needed: https://ourworldindata.org/food-supply https://ourworldindata.org/food-supply (because, in case you skimmed over the bit at the top, hypotheticals about what constitutes “equal harm”). > they also have enough oil/gas, that again, we have problems, if they don't export it Yes (hence Hungary realpolitik), but not insurmountable problems, and we should be moving away from those fuels anyway even without this war. > they also have most of the raw materials available locally plus a lot of companies that produce everything needed for basic infrastructure. Define “basic infrastructure”. Then ask yourself why Russian tank production halted. > have gas to export/sell to them to be able to pay for all that stuff. Not on the scale they need to keep their economy running. > pay more and you'll get workers to do the work for you. Vets are licensed. The number required is greater than all of the ones in the UK. As for crops, the farmers have tried this and get basically no takers. Can they try again for even more money? Only if the supermarket are willing to pay more for the food, which requires the customers to be willing to pay more for the food, which they can’t because too many are already short of money.
- temp-dude-87844 4y ago
  There are no pipelines that cross the EU's external border that transport crude oil from outside the EU into the EU, except the ones that are fed from Russia. Before the UK left the EU, there was technically one such pipeline from Norway, but it was mainly used to supply an oil export terminal located in the UK, rather than for importing oil into the UK for domestic consumption. Europe expects to rely on sea transport to import oil after foregoing use of oil from the Russian pipelines. This is why the landlocked countries of Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia were concerned during the sanction talks, though Hungary's Orban has exaggerated the concern to obstruct sanctions and/or to score dubious Realpolitik points. Hungary's only alternative is the Adria pipeline that starts at a port in Croatia; it can be used in either direction and has sufficient capacity to meet current demands. Czechia's only alternative is the IKL pipeline that starts at a pipeline junction and tank farm in Vohburg (near Ingolstadt) in Germany. Slovakia's only alternative (if my research is accurate) is to be supplied through Hungary, using the Adria pipeline and a soviet-era connection between Hrkovce and Százhalombatta to be run in reverse mode.
billfruit 4y ago
It looks like there is a Gazprom pipeline between Russia and China.
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]
nine_k 4y ago
There is actually a gas pipeline from Russia to China, it's near capacity, and extending it would be a major undertaking, which is planned but will take a decade or so. See e.g. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-turns-to-Russian-gas-to-curb-dependence-on-Quad-members https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-turns-to-Russi...

There's no pipelines from Russia to India and China. Russia has to ship the oil. That's way more expensive, and there's just no infrastructure for that right now.

ajsnigrutin 4y ago

How many piplines do we (EU) have from other countries that will provide us oil, after we totally stop importing it from russia? Won't the price hike hurt us too, possible even more than russia?

ben_w 4y ago
You need to be extremely careful with what you mean by “hurt” when you want to compare the economies of EU and Russia. The EU has about 10x the nominal GDP of Russia. Is a 10% contraction of the EU for one year equivalent to the entire Russian population reverting to subsistence farming for a year?
- ajsnigrutin 4y ago
  But they're not subsistence farming, they're doing the stuff they did before, export their stuff to countries like india and china, and buying stuff from them too. Replacing their iphone with a Xiaomi/Huawei phone will hurt them a lot less, than possible power outages and no heat will hurt us. If we read between the lines, we're also at the brink of a massive food crisis (wheat and fertilizers + of course fuel cost) that russians have enough of.
  - ben_w 4y ago
    I’m talking hypothetically: The economic cost to the EU is also not 10%, but would you consider those two costs — hypothetical 10% EU recession and hypothetical Russia reduced to subsistence farming — to be equal? Also: I should’ve thought of this before, but cost to each party isn’t the right metric — it’s what does the EU gain at what cost to the EU (and likewise for each party), so the question is probably more like: Q1) does this situation look like a warmongering power trying to rebuilding a lost empire? If so, what’s the cost of sitting back and doing nothing? A1) let’s say p=0.1, €3T/year Q2) [insert more hypotheticals, probability estimates, and costs here, a real analysis wouldn’t fit in a comment] Finally: multiply the chances by the costs, add them all up, that’s what it makes sense for the EU pay. > If we read between the lines, we're also at the brink of a massive food crisis We’re not even close to that, despite the breathless headlines and the fact the Russian forces interfered with a significant quantity of food production and are blockading the ports that would normally export it from Ukraine. Hell, even the UK isn’t that screwed and they’re short of farm hands to pick crops and vets to certify the abattoirs because of Brexit.
    - ajsnigrutin 4y ago
      Russia produces enough food, that we (=rest of europe) have problems if they don't export it and not vice-versa, they also have enough oil/gas, that again, we have problems, if they don't export it, they also have most of the raw materials available locally plus a lot of companies that produce everything needed for basic infrastructure. They're also friendly with countries like china and india for the rest of the things they need, and have gas to export/sell to them to be able to pay for all that stuff. I'm more afraid that Janez and Hans and Pierre will have to pick up crops to survive, and not Boris. > Hell, even the UK isn’t that screwed and they’re short of farm hands to pick crops and vets to certify the abattoirs because of Brexit. And it's funny, because this is a purely economical issue... pay more and you'll get workers to do the work for you. You cannot pay romanian paychecks to british workers.
      - ben_w 4y ago
        You’re still missing the point of “hypothetical”. It’s not a word I’d gotten around to learning the German for before writing this comment despite moving to Berlin in 2018, so as you’ve indicated you’re from the Balkans, I’m wondering if you know what I mean by it? I’m not asking you to judge the likelihood of two things, nor their consequences, I’m asking you to tell me if you think they are equivalent. Does A=B, where A is a 10% recession, etc. > Russia produces enough food, that we (=rest of europe) have problems if they don't export False. Russia exported €1.8 billion agricultural products to the EU last year: https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/729294/EPRS_ATA(2022)729294_EN.pdf https://www.europarl.europa.eu/RegData/etudes/ATAG/2022/7292... The EU agriculture sector is about 1.5% of its $US 17,000 billion nominal GDP, i.e. $US 255 billion nominal, which at current exchange rates is €237 billion, or to put it another way, what it gets from Russia is 0.75% by value of what it makes itself. I’m old enough to remember when the EU’s biggest problem was colossal over-production of food, and it’s agricultural policy being called a market-distorting subsidy. This is also backed up by EU countries having access to more food per person than Russia. Not that it matters because both are about 1000 kcal/day higher than actually needed: https://ourworldindata.org/food-supply https://ourworldindata.org/food-supply (because, in case you skimmed over the bit at the top, hypotheticals about what constitutes “equal harm”). > they also have enough oil/gas, that again, we have problems, if they don't export it Yes (hence Hungary realpolitik), but not insurmountable problems, and we should be moving away from those fuels anyway even without this war. > they also have most of the raw materials available locally plus a lot of companies that produce everything needed for basic infrastructure. Define “basic infrastructure”. Then ask yourself why Russian tank production halted. > have gas to export/sell to them to be able to pay for all that stuff. Not on the scale they need to keep their economy running. > pay more and you'll get workers to do the work for you. Vets are licensed. The number required is greater than all of the ones in the UK. As for crops, the farmers have tried this and get basically no takers. Can they try again for even more money? Only if the supermarket are willing to pay more for the food, which requires the customers to be willing to pay more for the food, which they can’t because too many are already short of money.
temp-dude-87844 4y ago
There are no pipelines that cross the EU's external border that transport crude oil from outside the EU into the EU, except the ones that are fed from Russia. Before the UK left the EU, there was technically one such pipeline from Norway, but it was mainly used to supply an oil export terminal located in the UK, rather than for importing oil into the UK for domestic consumption. Europe expects to rely on sea transport to import oil after foregoing use of oil from the Russian pipelines. This is why the landlocked countries of Hungary, Czechia, and Slovakia were concerned during the sanction talks, though Hungary's Orban has exaggerated the concern to obstruct sanctions and/or to score dubious Realpolitik points. Hungary's only alternative is the Adria pipeline that starts at a port in Croatia; it can be used in either direction and has sufficient capacity to meet current demands. Czechia's only alternative is the IKL pipeline that starts at a pipeline junction and tank farm in Vohburg (near Ingolstadt) in Germany. Slovakia's only alternative (if my research is accurate) is to be supplied through Hungary, using the Adria pipeline and a soviet-era connection between Hrkovce and Százhalombatta to be run in reverse mode.

billfruit 4y ago

It looks like there is a Gazprom pipeline between Russia and China.

deleted 4y ago

[deleted]

nine_k 4y ago

There is actually a gas pipeline from Russia to China, it's near capacity, and extending it would be a major undertaking, which is planned but will take a decade or so. See e.g. https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-turns-to-Russian-gas-to-curb-dependence-on-Quad-members https://asia.nikkei.com/Business/Energy/China-turns-to-Russi...