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I mentioned this in another comment - pre-Mittelstand investing is also driven by power-law 100x+ returns. If you invest $100K at <$1M valuation pre-revenue in
by thanedar 4y ago
I mentioned this in another comment - pre-Mittelstand investing is also driven by power-law 100x+ returns.
If you invest $100K at <$1M valuation pre-revenue in 100 pre-Mittelstands, 1-5% of those companies are going to get to $100M+, 10-30% will get to $10M+, and 50%+ will get a positive exit.
There is a robust buyout market between PEs and corporates for these companies.
Yes, this is a form of venture capital. But most VCs today would not consider pre-Mittelstands VC-backable startups.
This post and my last one We Need a Middle Class for Startups (https://neilthanedar.com/we-need-a-middle-class-for-startups/ https://neilthanedar.com/we-need-a-middle-class-for-startups...) make the argument to VCs that they can get big exits and returns investing in Mittelstands.
- atlasunshrugged 4y agoIsn't that why more traditional investors like banks give business loans or PE firms exist?
- thanedar 4y agoBanks are a great option $1-10M+ revenue. PE works $10M+ revenue. I'd target this Y Combinator for Mittelstands accelerator at the $0 to $1M stage for pre-Mittelstands.
- anyfoo 4y agoIt's very well possible that I either did not understand how your answer relates to my question, or that my definition of "exit" (namely, that a company gets sold, usually to a larger entity, and is not held by founders anymore) is incorrect or too narrow, but, again, how is an exit compatible with a company being part of the Mittelstand? You say "pre-Mittelstand", so I guess it's not about investing in companies that are aready Mittelstand (and effectively lifting them out of that) either.
- thanedar 4y agoMy idea here is to get more founders from zero to Mittelstand faster. From there, they will have many exit options, including corporates, PE, and even IPO. I don't believe there's anything in the Mittelstand definition that prohibits exits.
- Meai 4y agoBut by definition if a company grows for decades it doesn't 'exit' (=it isn't sold or renamed or repurposed). So I think that the Mittelstand definition should prohibit an exit, maybe not for the individual (=founder/owner) but for the company as a whole. In my opinion this is why in german you don't really use the term for companies anyway except when econonomists look back and analyze your company history.