3 ms·

What I'm 'driving at' (hehe) here is that there's a lot of daylight between what the math says, and what people are likely to accept. We are, for better or wor

What I'm 'driving at' (hehe) here is that there's a lot of daylight between what the math says, and what people are likely to accept. We are, for better or worse, somewhat comfortable with the fact that a human driven semi truck will occasionally wipe out a minivan. It's not clear to me at all that we as a society are, or will ever be comfortable with a computer-operated semi-truck doing the same. No amount of "Well, the number say this truck is statistically safer when driven by a computer..." will move the needle on that, IMO.

kube-system 4y ago
Well, there are different failure modes that we care about too. People think about first-party losses much differently than third-party losses. And, people currently take actions to mitigate those losses. Preventable crashes can be avoidable, by avoiding the situations in which humans engage in dangerous behavior. And the factor of control is why people are more comfortable with that failure mode, than a failure mode which may be more unpredictable. For instance: If I'm worried about killing my child in a first-party drunk driving crash, the average crash rate is irrelevant, because I can decrease the risk to zero by not drinking and driving. If I'm worried about third-party risk of a drunk driving crash, I can greatly mitigate that risk by choosing when and where I drive with my child in the car. > No amount of "Well, the number say this truck is statistically safer when driven by a computer..." will move the needle on that And I think the reason for that is that people subconsciously understand that the people who would be interested in (or financially capable of) purchasing an autonomous vehicle for the safety features are the same people who have lower accident rates than average.
- Brendinooo 4y ago
  Nah, I think it’s more that people like to be in control. Planes are safer than cars, but plenty of people are afraid of flying. Maybe there’s something psychological about going hundreds of miles per hour thousands of feet in the air, but what I usually hear as the reason is that people don’t like that they’re not in control of the systems. (Also that media plays up plane crashes, but that would almost certainly be true of autonomous crashes as well.)
  - kube-system 4y ago
    That's what I meant by > the factor of control is why people are more comfortable with that failure mode, than a failure mode which may be more unpredictable. There are situations in which control mitigates risk, and there are situations in which it doesn't. While the average crash rate is relevant to public health, it's really irrelevant to someone who is dead.

kube-system 4y ago

Well, there are different failure modes that we care about too. People think about first-party losses much differently than third-party losses. And, people currently take actions to mitigate those losses. Preventable crashes can be avoidable, by avoiding the situations in which humans engage in dangerous behavior. And the factor of control is why people are more comfortable with that failure mode, than a failure mode which may be more unpredictable. For instance: If I'm worried about killing my child in a first-party drunk driving crash, the average crash rate is irrelevant, because I can decrease the risk to zero by not drinking and driving. If I'm worried about third-party risk of a drunk driving crash, I can greatly mitigate that risk by choosing when and where I drive with my child in the car. > No amount of "Well, the number say this truck is statistically safer when driven by a computer..." will move the needle on that And I think the reason for that is that people subconsciously understand that the people who would be interested in (or financially capable of) purchasing an autonomous vehicle for the safety features are the same people who have lower accident rates than average.

Brendinooo 4y ago
Nah, I think it’s more that people like to be in control. Planes are safer than cars, but plenty of people are afraid of flying. Maybe there’s something psychological about going hundreds of miles per hour thousands of feet in the air, but what I usually hear as the reason is that people don’t like that they’re not in control of the systems. (Also that media plays up plane crashes, but that would almost certainly be true of autonomous crashes as well.)
- kube-system 4y ago
  That's what I meant by > the factor of control is why people are more comfortable with that failure mode, than a failure mode which may be more unpredictable. There are situations in which control mitigates risk, and there are situations in which it doesn't. While the average crash rate is relevant to public health, it's really irrelevant to someone who is dead.