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IDK much, and I can't speak to reserve currency status, but in your given scenario I'd expect huge capital transfers. Volatility would be the bet there. You'd b
by themodelplumber 4y ago
IDK much, and I can't speak to reserve currency status, but in your given scenario I'd expect huge capital transfers. Volatility would be the bet there. You'd be crazy to bet against churn. Traditional value investors would get torched, albeit more slowly torched than growth.
However the USA has an underappreciated stability-focused foundation which helps power its tight historic focus on systems of subjective ethics. You'd think the ethics would push the stability around, but IMO it's the exact reverse. So I personally look around and I see lots of stability-focused people mostly looking to buy the dip and get on with their lives the best way they know how (the united way).
A similar lesson is true with the USA and economic growth. The lesson people are taking out of high gas prices and inflation isn't "the system is broken, so what needs to happen is..." (objective) so much as "stop messing with my life, what I need is..." (subjective) and this latter position rewards government stability.
From a technical perspective the top charts for the US economy are showing an expected relief period, comparable to the duty cycle concept.
Crypto growth, even given the USD-exit mindset, correlates amusingly well with bull markets for US economic growth leaders. I'd say there is at least some considerable disincentive to desire a coup, on the crypto-focused side, for that reason alone, even if the USD or reserve currency concept is annoying.
I see considerable technical reasons to expect US markets to come out very strong after the current breather. There are some massively impressive businesses and tech behind this as well, and businesses are learning to take better care of employees, broadly speaking.
Plus right now we are right in the middle of a panic-focused news cycle so there is systemic bias looking in that direction on even a month-to-month level. Sector rotation seems normal as well.
Tons of new traders and even retail investors are also looking to BTD ASAP which also says a lot. They saw how COVID turned out and want to position for another springboard for personal returns.
Just some thoughts...