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Could those be part of the irrelevant backlog of economic theory? Jevons assume workers would be required in the created industries - no longer a thing, at leas
by JoeAltmaier 4y ago
Could those be part of the irrelevant backlog of economic theory? Jevons assume workers would be required in the created industries - no longer a thing, at least not in the medium term because automation will create those new things.
And 'lump of labor'? Again, when there is little or no labor needed to mass produce anything, rules-of-thumb about labor distribution are moot.
China's labor shortages may have a lot to do with the last few years, and a temporary phenomenon. It will take a decade for automation to catch up there but catch up it will. Accelerated by 'labor shortage' issues.
And again, Baumol's is predicated on folks actually having a job. Folks who fall out of the labor market (30M in America) cannot all be retrained as Engineers. Even if they could, we don't need 30M more Engineers.
It's going to be a rocky road.
- andrewjl 4y agoThere are many steps needed in order to "create those new things." Not all of them can be automated in the short-term or the medium-term for that matter. That's where most though not all of the job growth will concentrate. Labor shortages are not a temporary phenomenon, whether here in the US or elsewhere. They are already locked for at least several generations due to present-day demographics and family trends. Empty Planet by Darrell Bricker & John Ibbitson explains why far better than I can. There are plenty of open jobs for all types of skills. Not everyone needs to be retrained as an engineer.