4 ms·

> For example maybe people don't go to lots of inner city coffee bars in business districts any more but local cafes near residential areas are thriving. Peopl

> For example maybe people don't go to lots of inner city coffee bars in business districts any more but local cafes near residential areas are thriving. People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. People don't go to cafes locally because they have a coffee machine at home. Most people buy coffee and drinks on the way to work out of ease not that they taste better. > Maybe bad managers who don't understand how to support and motivate their teams are having problems with people slacking off at home. What if good managers who look after their people and engender a degree of trust and even loyalty are improving their team's performance by making their people's lives better? This talk of having good and bad managers makes no real sense. Companies aren't just going to fire managers. That would be unfair. > It seems far too early to draw broad conclusions about the effects of population-scale remote working but early enough to be confident that some people really like it but it's not for everyone and that some types of businesses benefit from the shift away from the office while others lose out. Too early? Two-years in?

ghaff 4y ago
>Too early? Two-years in? Yes. It's been two years when so many other things haven't been normal though--and to some degree still aren't. And it takes time for people to, for example, commit to working remotely on a more or less permanent basis, e.g. by moving to a location that doesn't have good local job prospects. Remote work is also mostly a topic for a relatively limited number of "knowledge workers." If anything, it looks like the change will be less than some were expecting. (Though even relatively modest changes can, at scale, have fairly significant knock-on effects.)
cableshaft 4y ago
We still get plenty of take-out for lunch, in fact possibly more now than before. We used to be better about cooking meals for the week and bringing them to work, right now we only sometimes eat last night's leftovers for lunch. I've got more restaurants within 5-10 minute drive of my house than near my old office. Coffee is a valid point though. We mostly make that at home now. But then again at the office I just got coffee from the Keurig in the break room, so not much difference there either. We still get Starbucks or Dunkin Donuts coffee about twice a week, usually on the weekends. Starbucks, at least, seems to have completely recovered its dip in revenue in 2020 and was making more revenue than ever (until the slight dip this most recent quarter, due to the national economic downturn) and doesn't need any extra help: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SBUX/starbucks/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SBUX/starbucks/rev...
tpxl 4y ago
> People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. And this money just goes poof instead of being reallocated elsewhere?
- that_guy_iain 4y ago
  It doesn't go to the poor coffee shop worker who gets let go. And can't spend it on x, y, z. No it goes on cost of living increases.
  - ubercow13 4y ago
    The cost of living increases aren't caused by people not buying coffee.
ChadNauseam 4y ago
> People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. > People don't go to cafes locally because they have a coffee machine at home. Most people buy coffee and drinks on the way to work out of ease not that they taste better. This is the broken window fallacy. Just like you can't improve the economy by breaking people's windows to get them to spend money on window repair, you can't improve the economy by forcing people to go to work to get them to spend money on coffee and gas
ra7 4y ago
> People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. Plenty go to work from coffee shops which they wouldn’t if they were in an office. Coffee shops with WiFi are thriving. They still buy take out lunches. Or they buy more groceries so they can cook and eat healthier food. They have more time due to lack of commute and allocate it to spending on something else (like a hobby, meeting friends, keeping fit etc). The money is just be reallocated elsewhere.
Silhouette 4y ago
People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. So your argument that remote work harms the economy is because it hurts businesses that sell coffee for at least a 10x markup over what it would cost to make it yourself when the one advantage they offered - convenience - ceased to be relevant? Should we also mourn the demise of the horse and cart? That's not how economics works. The money that was being spent on coffees doesn't just disappear. It becomes available to spend on something else and the greater efficiency is a boon overall. As for things like transportation of commuters that's a clear win for both quality of life (less time wasted on journeys) and the environment (less pollution and consumption of resources for unnecessary journeys). And again economically what is lost in transport infrastructure might be gained in better communications infrastructure and technology that enable better working from home and bring other benefits as well. People don't go to cafes locally because they have a coffee machine at home. There's a cafe just down the road from my home. It's a family-run business that employs local people. Everything is made fresh and the quality of the food is significantly better than the average chain sandwich shop. They now have so many new staff working for them that I don't even know everyone's name any more. It must be at least 3x the scale they were pre-COVID. They are busy throughout the day with tradespeople stopping in on a break or parents with young families getting out out of the house for a while. Of course at lunchtime they are packed and even with the extra help and redesigned kitchen they now have there is usually still a bit of a wait at the peak time. My impression is that even when working from home a lot of people still like to get out of the house for a break now and then and still value the convenience of having a decent lunch made for them. I don't see the market for this kind of local place going anywhere. On the contrary the growth in demand has been obvious. Companies aren't just going to fire managers. That would be unfair. It's unfair to fire people who can't get results when literally the only reason to employ them is to improve results and they are demonstrably incompetent? That's an interesting perspective but I'm not sure it's going to result in a lot of groundbreaking economics papers getting published any time soon... Too early? Two-years in? Of course. Since COVID started we've seen huge changes in our lifestyles. We've seen patterns in property markets sharply disrupted. We've obviously seen business arrangements change fundamentally for a lot of knowledge workers. The way we shop has changed. The way we socialise has changed. Use of technology (by non-experts) has changed. Education has changed. How we think about our health and provide healthcare has changed. I would be surprised if we know what the "new normal" looks like before at least another 5-10 years have passed. I doubt it will ever be the same as the old normal no matter what a few dinosaurs in business and government might think about subjects like remote working. They'll simply be outcompeted by employers who offer a pleasant working environment and take care of their staff whether that's in a company building or at home or on the move or some mix of those.

ghaff 4y ago

>Too early? Two-years in? Yes. It's been two years when so many other things haven't been normal though--and to some degree still aren't. And it takes time for people to, for example, commit to working remotely on a more or less permanent basis, e.g. by moving to a location that doesn't have good local job prospects. Remote work is also mostly a topic for a relatively limited number of "knowledge workers." If anything, it looks like the change will be less than some were expecting. (Though even relatively modest changes can, at scale, have fairly significant knock-on effects.)

cableshaft 4y ago

We still get plenty of take-out for lunch, in fact possibly more now than before. We used to be better about cooking meals for the week and bringing them to work, right now we only sometimes eat last night's leftovers for lunch. I've got more restaurants within 5-10 minute drive of my house than near my old office. Coffee is a valid point though. We mostly make that at home now. But then again at the office I just got coffee from the Keurig in the break room, so not much difference there either. We still get Starbucks or Dunkin Donuts coffee about twice a week, usually on the weekends. Starbucks, at least, seems to have completely recovered its dip in revenue in 2020 and was making more revenue than ever (until the slight dip this most recent quarter, due to the national economic downturn) and doesn't need any extra help: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SBUX/starbucks/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SBUX/starbucks/rev...

tpxl 4y ago

that_guy_iain 4y ago
It doesn't go to the poor coffee shop worker who gets let go. And can't spend it on x, y, z. No it goes on cost of living increases.
- ubercow13 4y ago
  The cost of living increases aren't caused by people not buying coffee.

ChadNauseam 4y ago

> People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. > People don't go to cafes locally because they have a coffee machine at home. Most people buy coffee and drinks on the way to work out of ease not that they taste better. This is the broken window fallacy. Just like you can't improve the economy by breaking people's windows to get them to spend money on window repair, you can't improve the economy by forcing people to go to work to get them to spend money on coffee and gas

ra7 4y ago

> People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. Plenty go to work from coffee shops which they wouldn’t if they were in an office. Coffee shops with WiFi are thriving. They still buy take out lunches. Or they buy more groceries so they can cook and eat healthier food. They have more time due to lack of commute and allocate it to spending on something else (like a hobby, meeting friends, keeping fit etc). The money is just be reallocated elsewhere.

Silhouette 4y ago

People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. So your argument that remote work harms the economy is because it hurts businesses that sell coffee for at least a 10x markup over what it would cost to make it yourself when the one advantage they offered - convenience - ceased to be relevant? Should we also mourn the demise of the horse and cart? That's not how economics works. The money that was being spent on coffees doesn't just disappear. It becomes available to spend on something else and the greater efficiency is a boon overall. As for things like transportation of commuters that's a clear win for both quality of life (less time wasted on journeys) and the environment (less pollution and consumption of resources for unnecessary journeys). And again economically what is lost in transport infrastructure might be gained in better communications infrastructure and technology that enable better working from home and bring other benefits as well. People don't go to cafes locally because they have a coffee machine at home. There's a cafe just down the road from my home. It's a family-run business that employs local people. Everything is made fresh and the quality of the food is significantly better than the average chain sandwich shop. They now have so many new staff working for them that I don't even know everyone's name any more. It must be at least 3x the scale they were pre-COVID. They are busy throughout the day with tradespeople stopping in on a break or parents with young families getting out out of the house for a while. Of course at lunchtime they are packed and even with the extra help and redesigned kitchen they now have there is usually still a bit of a wait at the peak time. My impression is that even when working from home a lot of people still like to get out of the house for a break now and then and still value the convenience of having a decent lunch made for them. I don't see the market for this kind of local place going anywhere. On the contrary the growth in demand has been obvious. Companies aren't just going to fire managers. That would be unfair. It's unfair to fire people who can't get results when literally the only reason to employ them is to improve results and they are demonstrably incompetent? That's an interesting perspective but I'm not sure it's going to result in a lot of groundbreaking economics papers getting published any time soon... Too early? Two-years in? Of course. Since COVID started we've seen huge changes in our lifestyles. We've seen patterns in property markets sharply disrupted. We've obviously seen business arrangements change fundamentally for a lot of knowledge workers. The way we shop has changed. The way we socialise has changed. Use of technology (by non-experts) has changed. Education has changed. How we think about our health and provide healthcare has changed. I would be surprised if we know what the "new normal" looks like before at least another 5-10 years have passed. I doubt it will ever be the same as the old normal no matter what a few dinosaurs in business and government might think about subjects like remote working. They'll simply be outcompeted by employers who offer a pleasant working environment and take care of their staff whether that's in a company building or at home or on the move or some mix of those.