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>bad. I think it'll be worse. Different. 2007/08 was a financial crisis, and global banking infrastructure almost imploded. Here we're talking about deglobal

>bad. I think it'll be worse. Different. 2007/08 was a financial crisis, and global banking infrastructure almost imploded. Here we're talking about deglobalization, supply chain issues and, well, a war. What's interesting is that the main problems may not be US focussed, it may happen around the world (although no one will be safe). For example, hard to imagine the Canadian real estate sector isn't going to melt down...

myth_drannon 4y ago
"For example, hard to imagine the Canadian real estate sector isn't going to melt down..." - Oh, how many times did I hear that, but it's wishful thinking. At best it's 20% down
- achenatx 4y ago
  bear in mind that 20% down is often times losing 100% of your capital due to leverage.
  - smnrchrds 4y ago
    20% down means the prices go back to approximately last year's. The only people who lose money would be those who bought in the past year.
dzhiurgis 4y ago
Far from economist, but I kinda agree. Finance is like 6x larger than real economy hence it really rules the world. That said, wonder what's going to happen with cost of living and property market going thru the roof everywhere. Riots? Ain't got time for that when you need to feed yourself.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Finance is like 6x larger than real economy How are you measuring this? By conventional metrics, it's less than 10% [1]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAPGDPFI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAPGDPFI
  - dzhiurgis 4y ago
    Unsure - I've heard it over Odd Lots podcast. Could've been sixth?
ackbar03 4y ago
There was a somewhat accepted view after QE that the next crash is going to be worse because of all the money that is being pumped into the system, and I think that logically makes sense. Although I agree we don't have shitty financial instruments this time, but it's still a lot of leverage in the system right? It must have accumulated somewhere? Or did something happen such that it's no longer the case and a danger? Did the economy actually grow into the leverage such that it's no longer a problem?
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myth_drannon 4y ago

"For example, hard to imagine the Canadian real estate sector isn't going to melt down..." - Oh, how many times did I hear that, but it's wishful thinking. At best it's 20% down

achenatx 4y ago
bear in mind that 20% down is often times losing 100% of your capital due to leverage.
- smnrchrds 4y ago
  20% down means the prices go back to approximately last year's. The only people who lose money would be those who bought in the past year.

dzhiurgis 4y ago

Far from economist, but I kinda agree. Finance is like 6x larger than real economy hence it really rules the world. That said, wonder what's going to happen with cost of living and property market going thru the roof everywhere. Riots? Ain't got time for that when you need to feed yourself.

JumpCrisscross 4y ago
> Finance is like 6x larger than real economy How are you measuring this? By conventional metrics, it's less than 10% [1]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAPGDPFI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAPGDPFI
- dzhiurgis 4y ago
  Unsure - I've heard it over Odd Lots podcast. Could've been sixth?

ackbar03 4y ago

There was a somewhat accepted view after QE that the next crash is going to be worse because of all the money that is being pumped into the system, and I think that logically makes sense. Although I agree we don't have shitty financial instruments this time, but it's still a lot of leverage in the system right? It must have accumulated somewhere? Or did something happen such that it's no longer the case and a danger? Did the economy actually grow into the leverage such that it's no longer a problem?

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