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Remote work is bad for the economy. I've seen this claim a few times now. Are we actually sure it's true? Or does it just shift long-term spending trends? For

Remote work is bad for the economy. I've seen this claim a few times now. Are we actually sure it's true? Or does it just shift long-term spending trends? For example maybe people don't go to lots of inner city coffee bars in business districts any more but local cafes near residential areas are thriving. Maybe people don't stop in big stores on their way home from work but home delivery services are thriving. Maybe bad managers who don't understand how to support and motivate their teams are having problems with people slacking off at home. What if good managers who look after their people and engender a degree of trust and even loyalty are improving their team's performance by making their people's lives better? It seems far too early to draw broad conclusions about the effects of population-scale remote working but early enough to be confident that some people really like it but it's not for everyone and that some types of businesses benefit from the shift away from the office while others lose out.

ghaff 4y ago
It's probably bad for cities in general, whether inner city coffee bars or office (and probably residential) real estate. And that may (or may not) be bad for people who want to live in cities. My observation though based just on traffic patterns is that debates about remote work are something of a bubble at this point. When I've had to go into the relatively nearby city a couple times lately rush hour traffic seemed as bad as ever although train/subway seemed relatively light.
that_guy_iain 4y ago
> For example maybe people don't go to lots of inner city coffee bars in business districts any more but local cafes near residential areas are thriving. People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. People don't go to cafes locally because they have a coffee machine at home. Most people buy coffee and drinks on the way to work out of ease not that they taste better. > Maybe bad managers who don't understand how to support and motivate their teams are having problems with people slacking off at home. What if good managers who look after their people and engender a degree of trust and even loyalty are improving their team's performance by making their people's lives better? This talk of having good and bad managers makes no real sense. Companies aren't just going to fire managers. That would be unfair. > It seems far too early to draw broad conclusions about the effects of population-scale remote working but early enough to be confident that some people really like it but it's not for everyone and that some types of businesses benefit from the shift away from the office while others lose out. Too early? Two-years in?
- ghaff 4y ago
  >Too early? Two-years in? Yes. It's been two years when so many other things haven't been normal though--and to some degree still aren't. And it takes time for people to, for example, commit to working remotely on a more or less permanent basis, e.g. by moving to a location that doesn't have good local job prospects. Remote work is also mostly a topic for a relatively limited number of "knowledge workers." If anything, it looks like the change will be less than some were expecting. (Though even relatively modest changes can, at scale, have fairly significant knock-on effects.)
- cableshaft 4y ago
  We still get plenty of take-out for lunch, in fact possibly more now than before. We used to be better about cooking meals for the week and bringing them to work, right now we only sometimes eat last night's leftovers for lunch. I've got more restaurants within 5-10 minute drive of my house than near my old office. Coffee is a valid point though. We mostly make that at home now. But then again at the office I just got coffee from the Keurig in the break room, so not much difference there either. We still get Starbucks or Dunkin Donuts coffee about twice a week, usually on the weekends. Starbucks, at least, seems to have completely recovered its dip in revenue in 2020 and was making more revenue than ever (until the slight dip this most recent quarter, due to the national economic downturn) and doesn't need any extra help: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SBUX/starbucks/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SBUX/starbucks/rev...
- tpxl 4y ago
  > People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. And this money just goes poof instead of being reallocated elsewhere?
  - that_guy_iain 4y ago
    It doesn't go to the poor coffee shop worker who gets let go. And can't spend it on x, y, z. No it goes on cost of living increases.
seanhunter 4y ago
>> Remote work is bad for the economy. > I've seen this claim a few times now. Are we actually sure it's true? Or does it just shift long-term spending trends? Yes. This is a very good example of what is known in economics as the "broken window" fallacy. It's very easy to only account for the effects you measure and ignore what might otherwise have happened. [1] "It is not seen that as our shopkeeper has spent six francs upon one thing, he cannot spend them upon another. It is not seen that if he had not had a window to replace, he would, perhaps, have replaced his old shoes, or added another book to his library. In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented." [1] https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Essays_on_Political_Economy/That_Which_Is_Seen,_and_That_Which_Is_Not_Seen https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Essays_on_Political_Economy/T...

ghaff 4y ago

It's probably bad for cities in general, whether inner city coffee bars or office (and probably residential) real estate. And that may (or may not) be bad for people who want to live in cities. My observation though based just on traffic patterns is that debates about remote work are something of a bubble at this point. When I've had to go into the relatively nearby city a couple times lately rush hour traffic seemed as bad as ever although train/subway seemed relatively light.

that_guy_iain 4y ago

> For example maybe people don't go to lots of inner city coffee bars in business districts any more but local cafes near residential areas are thriving. People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. People don't go to cafes locally because they have a coffee machine at home. Most people buy coffee and drinks on the way to work out of ease not that they taste better. > Maybe bad managers who don't understand how to support and motivate their teams are having problems with people slacking off at home. What if good managers who look after their people and engender a degree of trust and even loyalty are improving their team's performance by making their people's lives better? This talk of having good and bad managers makes no real sense. Companies aren't just going to fire managers. That would be unfair. > It seems far too early to draw broad conclusions about the effects of population-scale remote working but early enough to be confident that some people really like it but it's not for everyone and that some types of businesses benefit from the shift away from the office while others lose out. Too early? Two-years in?

ghaff 4y ago
>Too early? Two-years in? Yes. It's been two years when so many other things haven't been normal though--and to some degree still aren't. And it takes time for people to, for example, commit to working remotely on a more or less permanent basis, e.g. by moving to a location that doesn't have good local job prospects. Remote work is also mostly a topic for a relatively limited number of "knowledge workers." If anything, it looks like the change will be less than some were expecting. (Though even relatively modest changes can, at scale, have fairly significant knock-on effects.)
cableshaft 4y ago
We still get plenty of take-out for lunch, in fact possibly more now than before. We used to be better about cooking meals for the week and bringing them to work, right now we only sometimes eat last night's leftovers for lunch. I've got more restaurants within 5-10 minute drive of my house than near my old office. Coffee is a valid point though. We mostly make that at home now. But then again at the office I just got coffee from the Keurig in the break room, so not much difference there either. We still get Starbucks or Dunkin Donuts coffee about twice a week, usually on the weekends. Starbucks, at least, seems to have completely recovered its dip in revenue in 2020 and was making more revenue than ever (until the slight dip this most recent quarter, due to the national economic downturn) and doesn't need any extra help: https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SBUX/starbucks/revenue https://www.macrotrends.net/stocks/charts/SBUX/starbucks/rev...
tpxl 4y ago
> People don't buy coffee on the way to work, people don't buy coffee on the way home, people don't buy sandwiches and snacks, people don't spend money on commuting, people don't spend money at resturants for launch, companies stop having team lunches. And this money just goes poof instead of being reallocated elsewhere?
- that_guy_iain 4y ago
  It doesn't go to the poor coffee shop worker who gets let go. And can't spend it on x, y, z. No it goes on cost of living increases.

seanhunter 4y ago

>> Remote work is bad for the economy. > I've seen this claim a few times now. Are we actually sure it's true? Or does it just shift long-term spending trends? Yes. This is a very good example of what is known in economics as the "broken window" fallacy. It's very easy to only account for the effects you measure and ignore what might otherwise have happened. [1] "It is not seen that as our shopkeeper has spent six francs upon one thing, he cannot spend them upon another. It is not seen that if he had not had a window to replace, he would, perhaps, have replaced his old shoes, or added another book to his library. In short, he would have employed his six francs in some way, which this accident has prevented." [1] https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Essays_on_Political_Economy/That_Which_Is_Seen,_and_That_Which_Is_Not_Seen https://en.wikisource.org/wiki/Essays_on_Political_Economy/T...