4 ms·

I agree I don't think it'll be 2007-2008 bad. I think it'll be worse. Covid, Ukraine, Remote Work, etc are all hammering the economy.

itsoktocry 4y ago
>bad. I think it'll be worse. Different. 2007/08 was a financial crisis, and global banking infrastructure almost imploded. Here we're talking about deglobalization, supply chain issues and, well, a war. What's interesting is that the main problems may not be US focussed, it may happen around the world (although no one will be safe). For example, hard to imagine the Canadian real estate sector isn't going to melt down...
- myth_drannon 4y ago
  "For example, hard to imagine the Canadian real estate sector isn't going to melt down..." - Oh, how many times did I hear that, but it's wishful thinking. At best it's 20% down
  - achenatx 4y ago
    bear in mind that 20% down is often times losing 100% of your capital due to leverage.
    - smnrchrds 4y ago
      20% down means the prices go back to approximately last year's. The only people who lose money would be those who bought in the past year.
- dzhiurgis 4y ago
  Far from economist, but I kinda agree. Finance is like 6x larger than real economy hence it really rules the world. That said, wonder what's going to happen with cost of living and property market going thru the roof everywhere. Riots? Ain't got time for that when you need to feed yourself.
  - JumpCrisscross 4y ago
    > Finance is like 6x larger than real economy How are you measuring this? By conventional metrics, it's less than 10% [1]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAPGDPFI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAPGDPFI
    - dzhiurgis 4y ago
      Unsure - I've heard it over Odd Lots podcast. Could've been sixth?
- ackbar03 4y ago
  There was a somewhat accepted view after QE that the next crash is going to be worse because of all the money that is being pumped into the system, and I think that logically makes sense. Although I agree we don't have shitty financial instruments this time, but it's still a lot of leverage in the system right? It must have accumulated somewhere? Or did something happen such that it's no longer the case and a danger? Did the economy actually grow into the leverage such that it's no longer a problem?
- deleted 4y ago
  [deleted]
procgen 4y ago
Is remote work hammering the economy? What effect does it actually have on productivity?
- massysett 4y ago
  It's keeping a lot of people at home who otherwise would be in downtowns or suburban office districts buying lunch, having clothes drycleaned, stopping in stores, buying gas, etc.
  - numbsafari 4y ago
    Because what the economy needs right now is… more demand?
  - vanillax 4y ago
    This still happens regardless of remote work. People still live in the cities. The city isn't 100% full of remote tech workers. I think there is some assumption that remote work represents the majority, which its not even close.
  - treis 4y ago
    This is a "broken window" fallacy.
    - sokoloff 4y ago
      I think it's not the broken windows fallacy when it increases many remote workers' savings rate. That's different from the parable of paying a glazier for the window instead of a tailor for a suit, but rather having less money circulating in the economy when 20 days a month, I don't burn $5 of gasoline, eat a $2 lunch instead of a $15 lunch, and wear sweat pants instead of office clothes. That could be $3000 of spending reduction for me that isn't replaced with $3000 of other consumption, but rather a significant portion of it goes into savings/investments.
      - ProjectArcturis 4y ago
mtoner23 4y ago
Worse??? where have you been the past 2 years

itsoktocry 4y ago

>bad. I think it'll be worse. Different. 2007/08 was a financial crisis, and global banking infrastructure almost imploded. Here we're talking about deglobalization, supply chain issues and, well, a war. What's interesting is that the main problems may not be US focussed, it may happen around the world (although no one will be safe). For example, hard to imagine the Canadian real estate sector isn't going to melt down...

myth_drannon 4y ago
"For example, hard to imagine the Canadian real estate sector isn't going to melt down..." - Oh, how many times did I hear that, but it's wishful thinking. At best it's 20% down
- achenatx 4y ago
  bear in mind that 20% down is often times losing 100% of your capital due to leverage.
  - smnrchrds 4y ago
    20% down means the prices go back to approximately last year's. The only people who lose money would be those who bought in the past year.
dzhiurgis 4y ago
Far from economist, but I kinda agree. Finance is like 6x larger than real economy hence it really rules the world. That said, wonder what's going to happen with cost of living and property market going thru the roof everywhere. Riots? Ain't got time for that when you need to feed yourself.
- JumpCrisscross 4y ago
  > Finance is like 6x larger than real economy How are you measuring this? By conventional metrics, it's less than 10% [1]. [1] https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAPGDPFI https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VAPGDPFI
  - dzhiurgis 4y ago
    Unsure - I've heard it over Odd Lots podcast. Could've been sixth?
ackbar03 4y ago
There was a somewhat accepted view after QE that the next crash is going to be worse because of all the money that is being pumped into the system, and I think that logically makes sense. Although I agree we don't have shitty financial instruments this time, but it's still a lot of leverage in the system right? It must have accumulated somewhere? Or did something happen such that it's no longer the case and a danger? Did the economy actually grow into the leverage such that it's no longer a problem?
deleted 4y ago
[deleted]

procgen 4y ago

Is remote work hammering the economy? What effect does it actually have on productivity?

massysett 4y ago
It's keeping a lot of people at home who otherwise would be in downtowns or suburban office districts buying lunch, having clothes drycleaned, stopping in stores, buying gas, etc.
- numbsafari 4y ago
  Because what the economy needs right now is… more demand?
- vanillax 4y ago
  This still happens regardless of remote work. People still live in the cities. The city isn't 100% full of remote tech workers. I think there is some assumption that remote work represents the majority, which its not even close.
- treis 4y ago
  This is a "broken window" fallacy.
  - sokoloff 4y ago
    I think it's not the broken windows fallacy when it increases many remote workers' savings rate. That's different from the parable of paying a glazier for the window instead of a tailor for a suit, but rather having less money circulating in the economy when 20 days a month, I don't burn $5 of gasoline, eat a $2 lunch instead of a $15 lunch, and wear sweat pants instead of office clothes. That could be $3000 of spending reduction for me that isn't replaced with $3000 of other consumption, but rather a significant portion of it goes into savings/investments.
    - ProjectArcturis 4y ago

mtoner23 4y ago

Worse??? where have you been the past 2 years